저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오가 AI 붐을 거품 사례로 지목하며 한국·대만을 언급했다는 내용. 한국 코스피는 1년 78%, 3년 160% 상승했고 신용융자 잔고가 사상 최고(38.5조)이며, 달리오의 거품 기준 6개 중 부채·상승률 등을 점검. 코스피는 6월 고점 대비 약 30% 하락한 상태로 소개됨. 다만 1982년 예측 실패 사례와 AI 기술 자체의 진위는 별개라는 점도 함께 언급. 빅테크 부채 증가와 금리 상승이 겹치면 거품 붕괴 시점이 올 수 있다는 조건부 시나리오 제시.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater, warned of an AI bubble last week. However, Korea appeared in those words . It was said that while AI has greatly helped the productivity of Korea and Taiwan, it has become a case where a bubble began as money poured in beyond that. Today, I checked the original text to see exactly where Dalio said what, and I personally examined the current Korean market based on the bubble he disclosed .
Dalio founded Bridgewater in 1975. The company became the world's largest hedge fund in 2005. In 2007, he made a name for himself by warning in advance about the upcoming financial crisis . Current net worth is approximately $21.5 billion . It is estimated to be around 30 trillion won . That doesn't mean I was always right.
In 1982, he publicly predicted that the stock market would collapse due to a debt crisis . However, a massive bull market began right from his August. He stated that he couldn't have been more wrong, that he had to let all the employees go, and that he had to borrow $4,000 from his father. Since then, he has been scouring 500 years of market history to study patterns of the same thing repeating itself.
The first remark was made during a Bloomberg TV interview on October 6 . Dalio said that big innovations are always accompanied by bubbles. The current AI boom was compared to the late 1920s . Even back then, new technologies like radio, cars, and electricity were flooding the market, and people took out loans to buy stocks.
And it touched upon Korea and Taiwan. He said that while AI was excellent for the productivity of the two countries, it is pouring money earned beyond its own productivity into the global economy, and that is where problems are arising, calling it a good example of a bubble starting. The second is the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore the following day.
He called AI a typical bubble . And said this. I think we are now approaching the stage right before the bubble bursts, and it is quite close. It’s not like I suddenly brought up the topic of Daliogai. In a Bloomberg interview last June as well, he stated that all great technological changes create bubbles.
What has changed in the last four months is that just because there is a bubble, it has gone a step further and is now considered to be close to bursting . The mill fee chosen by Dalio is cash. If I quote him exactly, it goes like this. Everyone says I have 1 billion dollars . So, I'm telling you to try using that .
He said that to use it, you have to sell stocks and convert them into money, and that bubbles usually burst at that very moment. A lot of borrowed money is currently invested in AI. Capital investment at four U.S. big tech companies is expected to exceed $700 million this year, and three of them have increased their debt by more than $200 billion over the past year.
Dallio believed that if interest rates continued to rise, debt would become a burden, and that would be when the bubble began to burst. You can understand it by looking at the numbers . The KOSPI rose 78% over the past year . Over 3 years, it is 160%. On June 18, it exceeded 9,000 for the first time in history.
On that day, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both hit all-time highs . Taiwan is similar. The Taiwan stock market has risen 83% over the past year and is still near its peak . Markets in both countries where AI semiconductors drove the indices up. This is the reason why Daliogai grouped the two together.
The direction of foreign capital in Korea has also changed. On June 18, when the figure exceeded 9,000, foreigners bought over 1.2 trillion won on the KOSPI. However, on October 8, when Samsung posted earnings of 107 trillion won, it sold 2.6 trillion won. Dalion disclosed its bubble standards in 2021.
There are six main types. I only looked at what could be confirmed by publicly available figures regarding whether prices are higher than traditional standards, whether future growth is being excessively borrowed, whether there are many first-timers, whether the atmosphere is overly excited, whether people are buying on debt, or whether they are purchasing even future items in advance .
First, debt. According to data compiled by the Korea Financial Investment Association, margin loans for purchasing stocks on the 19th reached a record high of 38.4786 trillion won on June 19. It grew by more than 10 trillion won in half a year from the 27 trillion won range at the end of last year. It was to the point where securities firms were blocking margin buying.
This is important because if the price of stocks purchased through Biz falls below a certain level, the brokerage firm will forcibly sell them. The volume sold in that way drove the price down even further. This is the very place where the moment Dalio mentioned—when you need cash and have to sell— comes most mechanically .
Next is the rate of increase. 78% in one year is a speed similar to that just before the past bubble . The KOSPI also rose 88% in the year from the end of 1998. It was just before the peak of the computer bubble. The remaining criteria were not judged in today's video because Dalio did not disclose the calculation method .
1929, which Dalio compared. The U.S. stock market fell 86% from its September peak to Barack in 1932. The Nasdaq fell 78% during the dot-com bubble in 2000 . At the same time, the KOSPI fell 56% and the Dema fell 66%. However, Korea has already been shaken once this year . The KOSPI is currently at 6,384, about 30% below its peak in June .
On the other hand, Taiwan is still near the peak. Two markets that received the same signal are now in different positions. What's more important is the time it took to recover. It was 25 years later that the U.S. stock market surpassed the peak of 1929 again . In 2000, the NASDAQ was 15 years old. It took 17 years for the cannabis plant.
The KOSPI regained its 2000 peak after five and a half years and its 2008 peak after three years . The bubble bursts in an instant, but it took several years to return . The important thing is that Dalio didn't just give the surface. He said that this bubble was not big enough to bring down the entire economic system.
And the fact that there is a bubble does not mean that AI is fake. The internet, like the railroad, went through a bubble but changed the world. However, the fact that the technology is genuine and the current price is correct are two different issues. There are also counterarguments. The U.S. investment media outlet Motleyple viewed that Big Tech companies are so profitable that they can fully handle their increased debt.
Instead, he pointed out that there is a separate weak link. These are AI companies that have promised to build hundreds of trillions of won worth of data centers in the future, even though they have not yet been able to consistently generate profits. If the bubble bursts, cracks may appear there first .
No one knows if Dalio is right. He has also been greatly wrong, as in 1982. However, the arson tax he mentioned can be observed in the numbers . First, interest rates. Second, B2, as US 10-year international interest rates continue to rise . The balance of credit loans is increasing again. Third, big tech investment plans.
The moment when these three things—that they plan to pour more money into AI next year— collapse simultaneously might be the moment Dalio mentioned when cash is needed. M.
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