Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger On Stock Market Bubbles & Predicting The Dot Com Bubble Crash

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결론: 과열 장세의 거품은 결국 꺼지지만 언제 얼마나 충격을 줄지는 알 수 없으며, 기업이 실제로 벌어들이는 현금이 장기 주가 가치를 결정한다. 단기적으로 주가는 투표기계처럼 움직이지만 장기적으로는 가치를 재는 저울이라는 벤 그레이엄의 견해를 인용했다. 사업이 미래에 얼마나 현금을 뱉어낼 수 있는지가 시장에서 주식이 갖는 가치를 결정한다. 돈을 벌지 못하는 회사가 200억 달러 가치로 거래되면 부는 창출되지 않고 이전만 일어난다. 이런 과정은 연쇄편지나 폰지 사기와 같은 원리이며, 거래·투자 마찰비용만큼 부가 실제로 소멸한다. 네브래스카 농지 버블 사례: 생산성이 낮은 땅이 에이커당 2000달러에 팔렸고, 금리가 10%일 때 수학적으로 맞지 않아 그 가격에 산 사람과 대출 은행이 크게 손실을 봤다. 농지 버블 당시에는 한 달 전보다 비싸게 팔리는 모멘텀 투자가 확산되어 모두가 좋다고 여겼다. 가치평가는 결국 중요하지만 오랫동안 무시될 수 있고, 참여자가 많아질수록 자체적인 '겉보기 진실'이 만들어진다. 버블 붕괴가 1920년대 말처럼 경제 전반으로 번질지, 특정 산업·섹터에 머물지는 알 수 없으며 5~10년 뒤에야 드러날 것이다. 잘못된 수학(연쇄편지·폰지)과 인터넷 같은 정당한 발전을 섞으면 나쁜 결과를 낳는다는 비유를 들었다("건포도에 똥을 섞어도 여전히 똥").

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01. but you'll see it tonight and you can describe it any way you'd like uh the question about the high-tech stocks and possible fallout anytime there have been um real bursts of speculation in the market you know that it does get corrected eventually ben graham was right when he said that in the in the in the short run it's a voting machine in the long run it's a weighing machine sooner or later the amount of cash that a business can disgorge in the future governs the value it has that the stock commands in the market but it can take a long time and i mean it's a very interesting proposition for example if you take a company that in the end never makes any money but the trade changes hands representing a valuation of 10 or 20 billion dollars for some time there's no wealth created there's a tremendous amount of wealth transferred and i think you will see when we look back on this era you will see this as a period of enormous amounts of wealth transfer but in the end the only wealth creation comes about through what the business creates there's no there's no magic to it if if a company that's not worth anything sells for 20 billion and five percent of it changes hand somebody takes a billion dollars from somebody else but investors is a whole gain nothing they all feel richer it's a very interesting phenomenon but but they can't be richer except as a group unless the company makes them richer and it's the same principle as a chain letter i mean if you're very early on a chain letter you can make money there's no money created by chain letters in fact there's the frictional cost of envelopes and postage and that sort of thing so the net there's some money destroyed a little bit and there's money destroyed by the frictional costs of trading and investing that that comes out of investors pockets but the uh the medias that periodically take place and not just in just not just in stocks uh we had a similar mania well i'm not none certainly similar we certainly had a mania in in farmland here in nebraska uh 20 years ago and land which uh couldn't produce will say more than seventy or eighty dollars an acre would sell for two thousand an acre at times when interest rates were ten percent well that that math will kill you and it killed the people who bought it for those prices and it killed a great many banks here in nebraska who lent based on that sort of thing but while it was going on everybody thought it was wonderful because every farm was selling for more than the similar farm it sold for a month earlier and it was momentum investing in farmland and in the end valuation does does count but it can go on a long time and when you get a when you get a huge number of participants playing with ever increasing sums you know it creates its own apparent truth for a can be for a very considerable period of time it doesn't go on forever and and whether it whether it has fallout to the whole economy like it probably did in the in the late 20s or whether it's just an isolated industry whether or sector where the bubble bursts and it really doesn't affect other values who knows but five or ten years from now you will know charlie well i think the reason we use the phrase wretched excess is that there are wretched consequences if you mix the mathematics of the chain letter or the ponzi scheme with some legitimate development like the development of the internet you are mixing something which is wretched and irrational and has bad consequences with something that has very good consequences but you know if you mix raisins with turds they're still turds that's why they have me write the annual report