저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 가격이 많이 떨어졌다는 이유만으로 주식을 사면 안 되며, 기업을 이해하고 펀더멘털이 유지되는 한 장기 보유하라는 투자 원칙 강연. 하락한 주식을 싸다고 사는 실수: 사람들은 주가가 많이 떨어졌다는 이유만으로 매수하지만, 그것은 더 떨어질 수 있다는 점을 간과한다. 사례 1 - Kaiser Industries: 주가가 26달러에서 16달러로 떨어졌을 때 매수했으나, 계속 하락해 3달러까지 밀렸다. 회사는 무부채였고 Kaiser Steel 40%, Kaiser Aluminum 40%, Kaiser Cement 32% 등 여러 자회사 지분을 보유했다. 3달러 시점 시가총액은 약 7,500만 달러로 보잉 747 한 대 가격 수준이었다. 결국 회사는 주주에게 주식을 나눠주고 자산을 매각해 주당 약 50달러를 돌려줬다. 교훈: 회사를 이해하지 못한 채 가격만 보고 사면 하락 시 대응할 수 없다. 자산 가치 대비 저평가는 기업 펀더멘털을 확인한 뒤에만 의미가 있다. 잘못된 믿음: 주가가 반드시 회복된다는 생각은 틀렸다. RCA(1929년 고점 회복 못함), 플로피 디스크, Western Union 등 많은 종목이 회복하지 못했다. 3달러면 잃을 게 적다는 착각: 주식의 손실 금액은 투자금 전액으로 제한되며, 100달러에서 3달러로 떨어졌다고 해서 매수 근거가 되지 않는다. 공매도 투자자는 하락을 확신하는 기업을 공매도해 수익을 내며, 가격이 낮아져도 하락 베팅이 옳을 수 있다. 주식 보유 원칙: 주식은 보유자가 있다는 사실을 모르므로 감정적으로 애착을 가지면 안 된다. 기업을 이해하고 펀더멘털이 개선되거나 유지되는 동안 보유해야 하며, 최고 수익 종목도 5~7년 차에 보유했던 것이라고 강조한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 단기 가격 예측은 없음. 장기 원칙만 제시.
다듬은 글
one of the things I find a rule I couple rules I want to throw I might find useful excuse me there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further gonna go down I remember Paula roid went from one hundred and thirty to a hundred people said here's this great company great record but ever gets below 100 you know just by every share you know and it could get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 100 3,500 it's not 95 what I buy within a year was 18 and this is kind of no debt I mean there's a company was just so overpriced they went down I did the same thing in my I think my first or second year in fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from $26 here to 16 I said how much more can it go it's 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest flocks ever on the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser industries at 14 I says you know it's about 426 to 16 I was looking to go what can I call my mother and said mom you're gonna look at this Kaiser industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10 while I went to 6 and went to 5 and went to 4 and went to 3 and I unfortunately er I would probably be still caddying or working at the stop and shop but it happened fast was able to this is compressed at uh and at 3 I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they own Kaiser broadcast the name ties of sand gravel Kaiser engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any death it's tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement they had no debt and the whole company at 3 was telling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with his company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but I said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they do is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out years and kind of cement I passed out chairs in Kaizen luenell they passed out the public spheres and Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact that stock I got from 26 to 16 and then again to 10 what would you do when went to 9 what would you do when to eat what would you do one went to seven this is the farm that people have is a South Fox because they didn't know why they bought it then I went down and they don't know what to do now if you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do it's psychiatrist having worked so far I've never seen them running and decided the the psychological psychiatry Fund I've never seen listed for the with the SEC to make it through as a mutual fund so I they haven't seen to help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the the so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down eventually they always come back this one is uh this one doesn't work either people think RCA just about get back to its 1929 high when General likely took it over a lot of double nits never came back remember those beauties floppy disks Western Union the list goes on and on people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I have had people call me up saying I'm thinking buying the stock at 3 how much could I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you point if you and if you put $20,000 in stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at full at 50 to the stock and you put $20,000 in at 3 and it goes to 0 you lose exactly the same amount of money everything if people say it's 3 how much can I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that start this is the only this may be a reason to research is gone the fact that stock is 3 down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't sure at Home Depot they not sure the great companies Johnson Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 7 they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at 7 that this company is gonna go to 0 they just haven't blown taps on this thing yet it's going to 0 and they're selling short 7 they're selling you short at 6 at 5 at 4 at three at two at one and a quarter and you know to sell something short you need a buyer something has to buy the damn thing and you want to who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower could it go the now here's a subject that you probably all talked about getting close didn't post our Engel trough that one of the leads getting very close so it uh everybody has to go somewhere and so uh the important things you can't get too attached to a stock you have to understand there's a company behind it you can't treat this like your grandchildren know you have to deal with the stock and say I understand the company and if they deteriorates at the fundamental slip you have to say goodbye to it you have one rule you wanna remember is the stock does not know you own it to break it so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as he keeps doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year I own them not my fifth sixth seventh day so you have to understand that and stay with it and then I'll put you through to my
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