저자: Financial - Economy - Market · 외국인
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the u.s. midterm election saw the biggest one-day post-election rally since 1982 with uncertainty about control of Congress out of the way there are plenty of other concerns on the horizon we are in the longest bull market in history but a bear market is an eventual reality I'm joined by Jim Rogers investor businessman as well as author at the Nasdaq we'll be talking about global fundamentals I'm so great to have you here today so you know there's going to be a bear market again well hopefully not too soon but it is an eventual reality wise beyond your years yes well I haven't been investing as long as you have Jim so you have been seeing what the market does and eventually markets rise markets tear and all with me I know yes I've been investing longer but I've also read throughout history and I know we always have bear markets now Janet Yellen who was head of the central bank in America recently said we're never going to have economic problems again mm-hmm if you believe her she went to Yale Yale kind of PhD from Yale she's Ivy Leaguer head of the Federal Reserve so she probably knows more than both of us she thinks well Jim were you and Janet classmates no not a PhD in neck span it's hard enough to make a living without an a PhD in economics from an Ivy League school well I know that you have been focusing on DC and what better place to start than the Federal Reserve now you have referred to as an experiment it's been a very long experiment if we're referring to the central bank as that but there has also been a lot of focus on politics on what's been coming out of the White House the ramifications of trade wars and we know that whenever there are discussions about tariffs as well as politics thrown and there's a lot of uncertainty now you have the perspective of living and doing business in Asia so what's the conversation happening over there well first of all it's very clear in Asia that mr.
Trump is making China great again you know he said how can make America great he's certainly making China great again when when he pulled out of Asia the Chinese looked around I said what he's leaving the whole place to us and the Japanese and the Koreans and everybody else so this is good news good news because now we don't have to worry so much about the Americans but they all do see what America is doing most people know that trade wars have never been good for anybody most people know that trade wars have failed always and hurt a lot of people mr.
Trump he that doesn't know history actually mr. Trump may but he thinks he's smarter than history and maybe he is smarter than history but nobody else ever has been and now that we've covered that I do want to get your take on different regions in the world I understand that your investments have changed especially when it comes to the BRIC nation so why has that happened and what do you foresee well remain I've been investing a long time and I have learned that the world is always changing always and whatever you think today is not going to be true in 10 or 15 years you have to understand that about the world or you're not going to be very successful in anything especially not and investing so as the world changes I try to change with it the United States stock markets at all-time highs normally it's not a good time to be investing in the country Chinese stock market is down 60% from its all-time highs Russia's hated sugar Oh sugars an embarrassment you should look at places like that I have experienced over my lifetime that that's where you should look not at places making all-time highs and we've been seeing a lot of ups and downs for the US equity markets in 2018 and each time the market dips then people become really concerned about the longevity of this bull market but for the time being it does appear that levels are holding and when it comes to the long term of course given the current valuations when a bear market does come it could mean disaster for a lot of investors but do you think investors should move away from ETFs you're wise beyond you years well the problem with ETS or the advantage of ETS is it's this very simple way to invest I use them I'm lazy I know it's an easy way to invest but the problem really is we all own ETFs and they all own the same stocks so when the bear market comes everybody's gonna sell the ETFs and therefore everybody's gonna sell the same stocks oh it's gonna be a bloodbath pair markets always lead to blood baths but now we're such a huge concentration in so few names they're gonna go down more than even they would normally go down mm-hmm I was interested in your comments before about some of the kinds of stocks going up in the u.s.
that's where all the money is and every time there's been a big bear market the places where everybody has invested those are the ones who get hurt the most mm-hmm indeed there has been a lot of focus on the tech sector as of late given what's happening not just in the US but also in Asia in terms of that sector I know that you also pay attention to the agricultural sector so what's the interest do so much well Agriculture's been a disaster I mean in the past 30 odd years Agriculture's been a nightmare I mean the average age of farmers in America is now 58 nobody wants to be a farm it's been more people in America study public relations then study agriculture because it's been a horrendous place to be the highest rate of suicide in the UK is in agriculture it's been a nightmare so it's going to change we've had long periods in history when the agriculture the producers of real goods have been an on top followed by long periods when the financial types have been on top but it always changes and it's changing again you know how to drive a tractor I personally don't Jim I would urge you to learn how to drive a tractor it will be a good skill in the next 20 years and Jim since you mentioned tractors I do want to get your take on what's been happening with farm equipment so when we think about traditional farmers 3rd 4th 5th generation farmers they take pride in their farming equipment whether it's a tractor or a combine but with the advent of technology apparently there's been a wave of dissent amongst farmers because they need to rely on the tech companies if they need to fix their equipment so they can't necessarily access the software that operates their farming equipment and there have been a lot of associations different states that have been trying to get bills passed so that their equipment can be fixed by their own hands versus relying on John Deere or other high-tech companies so what do you think of that well as I said before the world is always changing always has it always will be and you can stand and fight against the tide you know mr.
Leo King Lear tried fighting against the tide there have been people throughout history fighting against the time but it doesn't matter mm-hmm the world's gonna change no matter how much you fight no matter how much foolish politicians fight so don't worry it's going to change and new farmers will know what to do and how to solve the problems I know I couldn't solve the problems I couldn't even solve the problems for the old trackers much that's the new tractors but somebody will they'll learn they'll adapt so would you suggest that I learn how to hack this system how will you learn how to drive a tractor I would learn ok well I cannot do it I cannot do either but my children can program well I'm sure if you wanted to you could Jim well I do want to move back to a geographic location I know that in the past you've said in 1807 if you're a smart you moved to London 1907 you moved to New York and 2007 moved to China but here we are it's almost 2019 if you're smart where do you go well I was talking about centuries when I said that and in 2007 I did move to Asia because it was that's why I said it I still look as I look out the window I see that the 21st century will be the century of Asia and specifically of China that's where to be and if I were you I would learn to drive a tractor and move to Asia if I were you I've moved to Asia Korea is probably going to be once North Korea opens which will happen very soon Korea is gonna be the most exciting country in the world for a while I mean it's right on the Chinese border 80 odd million people natural resources cheap disciplined labor lots of things going forward other countries we mentioned Zimbabwe Ghana Venezuela exciting things are happening in Venezuela right now so there are other places and always places in the world that are turning the corner Jim it's interesting you mentioned that about Venezuela when we read the headlines coming out of that country they're not always so positive so what do you see right there yes Remi when you read the headlines you must learn I know you work for a news organization but you must learn to look beyond the headlines to see what's really really really happening the United States stock markets making all-time highs is that movie should all pour into the US and buy stocks probably not Venezuela is a horrible disaster it's one of the worst disasters in the history of mankind yes but they know it too now they're smart enough to know that they made many mistakes and they're starting to change they now have very moved exchange controls unbelievable for a country like Venezuela they're starting to try to figure out oh my gosh what do we do next that's when you buy you find a country that's at the bottom what changes are starting to take place and it's well it's at times has been one of the richest countries in the Western Hemisphere and it will be again that's very interesting to hear but I know that you can spot opportunity and you've been investing for a long time I know that it's a long ways away from the days of you being at Dominic and Dominic for example so before I let you go what are some tips you have for younger investor's out there who are just getting into the market well first of all you yes I have been investing along but but Remi I made a lot of mistakes I can't tell you I mean you won't hear about my first wife oh what a horrible mistake that was I have made many many mistakes my advice to everybody young old is stay with what you know don't listen to maybe listen to you but don't listen to other people stay with what you know everybody watching this show knows a lot about something that's where you should start don't listen to other people stay with what you know find the investments there if I told you you can only have 20 investments in your life you would be very careful about what you invest and that's how you become successful and Jim I know that in the past you have also said that put your eggs in one basket but how do you know that basket is the right one that's what I say you stay with what you know you don't go jumping around because some guy like me you stay with what you know when you find a great opportunity you pour in now if you get it wrong you'll get wiped out with all of your eggs in one basket but if you want to get rich that's how you do it you don't go put something here something there something there so you focus what you know when you know something's going to be exciting and successful put your eggs in that basket put watch the basket very very closely okay Jim well thank you so much for your time today and thank you so much for sharing your wisdom with us oh it's delightful Remy let's do it again sometime thank you
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