저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
재무부의 국채 바이백(operation twist) 발표로 달러가 약세를 보이며 유가·금리 상승 압력이 커질 것이라고 주장. 금·은은 실질적 상승이지만 비트코인은 뒤늦게 따라간 것이며 기술주 조정 시 하락할 것으로 봄. 주택건설 허가와 주택 매매 지표는 예상보다 부진해 경기 둔화 신호로 제시.
다듬은 글
Well, their currency has appreciated. And what does that mean? This means that not only do we pay tariffs on Chinese goods, but we also pay a higher exchange rate to get Chinese yuan. So, goods become even more expensive, even more so than because of the tariffs themselves, because of the unfavorable exchange rate.
But in any case, Canada obviously doesn't like these tariffs because it's bad for their business not to be able to sell a lot of goods to Americans, because another market that's affected is the US dollar. The dollar index fell by about 80 basis points. We are back below 99, at 98.85, and the dollar's weakness has helped push oil prices up more than 2%, bringing them back above $86 a barrel, and they continue to rise.
So now we see a gap between oil and bond yields, as they used to move in sync. Bond yields up, oil up; profitability down, oil down. But today the bond market ignored the rise in oil prices due to the statement of the Ministry of Finance, but it will not be possible to ignore it for long . In fact, as the Treasury weakens the currency, the dollar's weakness will push up bond yields and inflation.
Isn't that right? As oil and other commodity prices rise, it will make the Fed's job even more difficult. Because now the Fed will have to refrain from raising rates in an environment where there is even greater pressure on consumer prices, which is a direct result of the dollar's weakness. And it is clear that the Treasury Department knew that this statement would weaken the dollar and compound the Fed's inflation problem, as a stronger dollar helps to contain consumer prices.
This helps keep import prices under control. But when you have policies that weaken the dollar, it puts more upward pressure on oil and commodity prices. Which makes it even more difficult for the Fed to avoid raising rates. But of course they won't raise rates, especially given that the Treasury is conducting this " operation twist," which will obviously expand as the markets now know about it.
Bond prices will continue to fall. This is just a temporary rebound. Markets will test the Treasury's resolve, and ultimately the Fed's resolve. And again, a lot of this is also related to what's happening in Japan. Yes, the dollar's weakness is currently taking some pressure off the Japanese yen, and therefore some of the pressure on Japan to sell US Treasury bonds.
But, you know, if you think about it, why would the Ministry of Finance do this in an environment where long-term yields are rising ? The last thing you should do is pay off long-term debt and take out more short-term loans. And, you know, 20 years ago, when the stakes were so high—I hear some people say, "Hey, it's not a problem that the stakes are so high, because they were like that 20 years ago, and everything was fine." Well, first of all , not everything was fine, but you can't compare today's conditions to those of 20 years ago, when the national debt was less than a quarter of its current size.
So, we are talking about 5% of a huge amount, not a small one. But it's not just about that, it's about the trajectory of rates. 20 years ago, we were still in the midst of a major bond bull market, and yields were in a long-term decline. Now everything is the opposite. Yields are increasing. This is a " bear" bond market, and we're only in it for 5 or 6 years.
So rates will continue to rise. They won't fall, they will rise, and they... For months, oil prices and bond yields have moved almost in sync. Both indicators rose or fell together, largely reflecting shared inflation expectations. That connection was broken this week. Even as oil prices rose on a weak dollar, the bond market initially reacted calmly , buoyed by news of the Treasury bond buyback.
Analysts have warned that this divergence may not last long. A weaker dollar typically pushes up import and commodity prices, which in turn puts pressure on bond yields , regardless of Treasury actions. With 10-year yields around 4.7% and 30- year yields at their highest level since 2007, underlying pressure has not gone away.
It was simply temporarily leveled. Now, it's not just gold and silver that have risen in price in response to the Ministry of Finance's announcement. Bitcoin has also joined this movement. It actually started out slower and lagged behind gold and silver, but then it really rallied and Bitcoin actually went above 70,000.
We were trading around 62,000 to 63,000. I think it was 63,000 when I recorded my last podcast, and now as I'm recording this one, we're at around 69,500. And I know a lot of Bitcoiners are really excited. Again , the announcement caught some people by surprise. Obviously, I think there may have been some short positions that had to be closed.
Some people started to worry. They rushed into Bitcoin because that's what it is, right? This is a big step towards inflation. This, you know, is a precursor to quantitative easing. Everyone is going to get out of the dollar. They will buy gold and silver. They will buy Bitcoin . They will buy gold and silver, but they will not buy Bitcoin.
I mean, people are hoping they'll buy Bitcoin, and I think this trade is built on hope. So, I think the big difference between the gold and silver rally and the rally we had in Bitcoin today is that the gold and silver rally is a real thing. Gold and silver will not only preserve their gains, they will multiply them.
Whereas I expect Bitcoin to reverse and go down. And I think the tech stocks, you know, which showed a lot of weakness today, didn't get a boost from this news. So, if we have a bigger correction in the tech sector, then Bitcoin will follow it down. He will not follow gold and silver upwards. But more importantly, gold and silver are leading the way.
Gold has grown much more. Silver has risen much more than Bitcoin. Bitcoin did not lead this movement. He followed behind. So people might think, "Oh, it's even more sensitive than gold and silver." This is not true. It was less sensitive than gold and silver . Now, today, other economic news has emerged.
Again , this is negative for the economy. Housing construction indicators: look at construction volumes and permits, they are significantly lower than forecasts. 1.415 million were expected , and the figure was 1.239 million. This is one of the lowest figures we've had, probably, since the COVID lockdowns.
The same goes for pending home sales , which fell, although they were revised up last month.
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