A lot more confusion now about the rate adjustment path, says DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach

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연준이 12월 금리 인하 후 2025년 인하 속도 둔화 신호. 10년물 금리는 9월 이후 80bp 상승, 과거 인하 사이클과 달리 금리 상승 중. 노동시장 완화 부족, 인플레 가속 지표 증가로 2% 목표 달성 어려움, 2025년 중반 이후 인플레 압력 재발 전망. 유가가 핵심 변수이며 급등 시 2025년 인하 없음 가능성.

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01. for more let's welcome in double line Capital CEO and CIO and founder Jeffrey gunlock welcome back on what's become a tradition and I'm glad to have you Jeffrey good to be here Scott your reaction on what you just heard and what the FED did well there's a lot more confusion now than there was a couple of months ago um regarding the Future Path but the squaring of the 2-year treasury yield and the FED funds rate is now complete I talked several months ago about the Fed was behind the curve and needed to get aggressive in getting more in line with the 2-year treasury but now the 2-year treasury is at 4.35 and the FED funds rate is at 4 and 38 if you take the middle of the range so they're exactly there underneath the surface though uh there were a couple of of problems the first thing he said at the beginning of his press conference as always is they're squarely focused on their dual mandate and then he used the word Cooling for the labor market and he pointed out that it's looser than it was pre pandemic so that seems to be not trending quite the way they might want and at the same time he said uh uncertainty regarding inflation is clearly higher in fact I think he let something slip on an ad lib and I think he said let's see he said is the forecast from a few months ago on inflation seems to be have fallen apart I think are the words that he used so what we have now is a neutral rate versus the 2-year treasury yet the Dual mandate that they're squarely focused on is not exactly trending in in the perfect Direction uh the the inflation uh data points have not improved since the September meeting um about we we follow about 30 different inflation uh primary inputs and the number that are showing accelerating inflation in the several quarters ahead have increased since September also what's very interesting about what's happened over what been really a very aggressive cutting cycle I mean they've cut 100 basis points in 3 months so that's a 400 basis point annual rate and if you go back over all these fed hiking Cycles or cutting Cycles FedEd cutting Cycles going back to 1984 so Going Back 40 years this is the first time that after the first cut in the FED funds rate that interest rates have gone up and not down the 10-year treasury yield is up by 80 basis points from September 18th and usually the yield falls on the tenure treasury once you go into a Fed hiking cycle so the takeaway that I got from that press conference was there's not going to be an aggressive cutting cycle as a base case in 2025 obviously the market went from four implied fed uh rate Cuts in 2025 to now the fed's down at two and the market is pretty much in sync with that so much slower rate cuts and of course risky assets and of very highly valued stock market doesn't like the idea that rate cuts are less likely on both sort of both sides of the Mandate uh our Our intention with the path that was so comfortably in place per the press conferences uh in the midp part of this year that's the confidence just isn't what where it used to be so I think the FED is now extraordinarily data dependent um as we enter 2025 I know they're always data dependent but at this juncture it's it very uh it's critical that we watch that unemployment rate which fed Paulo said that job creation is not high enough to keep the unemployment rate steady so the base case is that rate's going in the you know up which is not the direction they want and at the same time some inflationary primary inputs are suggesting that we're not going to get to 2% I thought the last question that was asked in the Press confence was a perfect ending kind of is it really is it good enough to be at 2 and a half% do we have to give up on 2% inflation you know are we is where we are the best we're going to get and my take away from that press conference is the short answer to that is yes I I think that we're not likely to get to 2% inflation in 2025 and the FED says so themselves in fact we'll probably start having inflationary pressures towards the middle of 2025 and the uh the headline CPI rate will probably not be below 2.5% when the inflation rate starts heading up towards three now obviously all these things can change we don't have great visibility on the second half of 20125 but it unless the price of energy Falls which is possible with drill drill drill coming being the rhetoric of the incoming Trump Administration we'll see but uh oil prices have been remarkably stable and uh it that's the real wild cards if they would go up for whatever reason we would start to see significant inflation risk and there would be no fed in 2025 if that's the case