Ray Dalio On Bitcoin - What's The Future Of Bitcoin?

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결론: 달리오는 비트코인을 대안화폐 경쟁의 일부로 보지만 개인적으로는 금을 더 선호하며, 비트코인은 포트폴리오의 작은 일부에 그친다. 비트코인 평가: 약 11년간 해킹 없이 작동해 왔고 가치 인정을 받는 자산이 되었다. 다만 모든 신기술처럼 살아남는 것과 사라지는 것이 나뉠 것이라고 봤다(2000년 닷컴 버블의 pets.com 비유). 화폐 경쟁 전망: 법정화폐 발행 확대와 화폐가치 하락으로 여러 화폐가 경쟁하는 시대가 올 것이라 본다. 여기에는 암호화폐뿐 아니라 중앙은행 디지털화폐도 포함된다. NFT 언급: NFT도 소유하고 투자할 수 있는 일종의 화폐 형태가 될 수 있다는 가능성을 언급했다. 금 선호 이유: 화폐의 기능(교환 수단, 가치 저장)에 비추어 금을 선호한다. 금은 추적이 되지 않아 연결되지 않는다는 장점이 있고, 수천 년간 보편적으로 인정받았으며, 중앙은행 준비자산 중 세 번째로 큰 화폐 원천이다. 비트코인은 이런 역할을 하지 못할 것이라고 봤다. 리스크/조건: 연결성이 더 큰 위험이 될 수 있는 세계에서 비추적성의 이점이 있다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 자체에 대한 명확한 단기 가격 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

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01. well the evolution of bitcoin over the years is one of the things that has influenced changes in my view it has proven itself something like 10 11 years ago imagine the programming of this and here's the you throw it out and that's the idea it has not been hacked it has um operated it is built it has come an amazing way um over that 11 years to be um maybe probably the most excited topic among a lot of people um and has been used and and is now um has obtained you know the status of having imputed value at the same time it is one of those assets that is an alternative money i think we're entering an era where um there's going to be a competition of monies um because of the printing of fiat money and the depreciated value there will be a competition of money um and bitcoin is part of that competition but there'll be many monies not just crypto monies but there'll be central bank crypto monies um but there'll be different kinds of monies and even monies are things that you buy and sell nfts can become a money a type of money you own it and it's an investment and you could say i'd rather own it i definitely want to buy it nfts to just experience them you know like i think i should produce one yeah and i should uh i should have asked that have you made it have you mentioned it and that you probably should just to know what it's like yeah that's right this stuff is happening this stuff is real okay and how it operates but like all new real things uh some are gonna go and some gonna you know it's like in the internet in the year 2000 um you know pets.com could have been the great but maybe pets.com doesn't make it and who knows that's the beauty of the competitive system that'll evolve some things will be treasured and some things will be trashed so um but when i look at it i think we are in an environment of you know what is an alternative money the money has two purposes a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and we are looking for and it's portable and you can and it's best if it's recognized in other countries um so gold is one of those so i look at it as an alternative gold but i look at a number of things as alternative gold um and i think that and i think and gold is still my favorite because of certain qualities for example um you can't trace it in in bitcoin you can trace who owns it where it's going and and so on governments can have that ability to trace it and so on a gold piece of coin it's it's not connected i think not connected has benefits particularly in a world where maybe connections can be more risky um so um and then also gold has been for many thousands of years universally recognized as a source of money and central banks it's the third largest uh source of money in central bank reserves and i don't think bitcoin is going to serve those types of purposes and so on so for various reasons i prefer gold to the other but it's a little bit part of my mix you