저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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결론: 멍거는 팬데믹 상황에서 비관과 낙관이 섞인 중립적 시각을 보였으며, 대공황급 장기 침체는 믿지 않는다고 전달. [인터뷰 배경] 월스트리트저널 칼럼(제이슨 츠바이크 인터뷰, 2020년 4월 중순 게재, 인터뷰는 약 1주 전 전화로 진행)을 바탕으로 한 영상. 버크셔 해서웨이는 2008~2009년 서브프라임 위기 때 GE 등 대형 기업을 인수한 사례가 언급됨. 멍거는 위기 때 버크셔의 보수적 투자 방식이 안전하다고 강조, 주가는 20달러 미만에서 현재 수십만 달러 수준으로 성장했다고 설명. [멍거의 진단] 팬데믹이 전 세계로 확산되며 항공, 외식 등 대부분 업종이 타격을 받았고, 항공기 운항도 화물·긴급 위주로 축소됨. 멍거는 이번 상황이 이전 위기와 다르다고 언급했으나 구체적 기간과 규모는 "아무도 모른다"고 답변. [멍거의 낙관 및 우려] 1929년 같은 대공황은 믿지 않음. 다만 코로나 이후 고용이 2019년 수준으로 회복되기 어려울 수 있고, 일부 기업은 문을 닫을 것이라는 우려를 표명. [버크셔 현황] 새로운 부채증권 발행 예정(약 10억 달러 이상으로 언급), 현금 보유액 약 1,200억 달러 수준 언급. [영상 제작자 해석] 멍거의 발언을 비관과 낙관이 섞인 중립으로 분류. 자회사 자본 요청 전화가 아직 오지 않았다는 발언을 긍정적 신호로 해석 가능하나, 영상은 이를 단정하지 않음. [출연자 전망] 영상 진행자는 대공황식 장기 침체는 믿지 않는다는 입장을 제시. 종목 직접 추천 없음.
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Hi this time we are still in the theme What they say in the subtheme of investment views in the midst of the pandemic, this time we will review the views of c5ga Vice chairman of besar hardware Thank you for your Lex because every like you will affect the YouTube algorithm so that the video and this time it will be more useful for them hello fellow investors meet me again there is biji Anto make YouTube Cup too this time we are still in the theme What they say in the subtheme of investment views in the midst of the pandemic, this time we will review the views of Celine Vice chairman of bchd investment company which is jointly managed by wonkave and miccoli mangga and how her views are especially related to the pandemic or investment in demi this time investors have already established mangga which we will review this was revealed or revealed through an article entitled Celine mangga gepon is not running of the f*** this article was first published in the wall street journal in his column Jaz like you maybe if you are not familiar Zoe is a commentator hit by the intelligent investor whose review or discussion We have discussed it on the investor podcast, please, maybe you are interested in following it on pegas, well, we have returned to the main topic of investment views in the midst of the pandemic In our opinion, the views of the mangga watch this time This is included in the category ah ah it is said that there is pessimism or worry Yes but on the other hand it also has a little optimism so we categorize the chale view is next well brother from the article published in the wall street journal and then republished in morningstar the link is in the description yes Jason white revealed that in 2028 2008 to 2009 when the subprime mortgage crisis Housing Crisis parable yes housing mortgage in the United States happened it was really bad the stock exchange was also in ruins including in America and in Indonesia was also affected Well brother at that time freezer had bought up several large companies including general electric God mensah and a bowling company the northern V like that yes initially 10 billion dollars well this is phenomenal then Jason Swag asked What about the conditions during the crisis in the midst of a pandemic like this What did text and also Charlie do as vs Germany in Tegal head-to-head brother Charlie did not directly answer the question but Charlie revealed telling a little about the situation that according to Kaliwaron really wanted to maintain texture as their investment vehicle was safe because there were a lot of conservative investors Is that considered a fan Cecar 5angga and fried bavet or indeed speak for themselves as a phenomenal investment vehicle starting from a stock price below 20 US Dollars when Won really started and now the value is already Queen 1000 Yes dollar 200 thousand yes solar well many people invest in websites until the share is around Well 90% of their money or capital said Charlie Worsham wants to manage Fixer as a conservative investment vehicle that is safe for those ordinary investors investors who are old as old chili himself who is in his 90s and Warren too yes Well like that Well now we are certainly interesting we can peek How is Charlie's thinking in this matter as being clean I also idolize the two grandfathers who manage this company yes because they do provide good examples that are good in their conservative attitude also their Capital allocation there are also many important lessons that can be learned in their Letters of shareholders they have been in the 60s until 2016 until now I read the total and it turns out there are a lot of lessons from them now in plastic racing for like this Of course we want to learn according to Charly like this When the pandemic has gone global, attacking all countries in the world, including America, and we also followed it very badly when this article was published around April 17th, so the interview was conducted via telephone by Jason Swag a week before, so around the beginning of April, well, at that time, of course, the economy was already warm and employment was increasing rapidly, and that is in America, we also heard that in Indonesia, of course, businesses were also affected, ah, ah, let's just imagine, like fast food restaurants that are generally needed by business people in general, the majority have stopped closing and only basic businesses are running.
If you look at satellite images on sites like flight radar, the entire aircraft network has now stopped in the United States, only the planes, sorry for the comment, yes, the majority of passengers have stopped, only the planes, maybe the charter ones, the retail ones, the emergency ones, or the planes, only logistics, only shipping like that, yes, only those that are running, well, let's just imagine, in the economic downturn, the top total businesses or large businesses are also affected, then Jason Swag wonders, Hi, if the economy is already weak like this, what about the subsidiary of BCA Gateway, you may not know, this is a very large conglomerate owned by the managed by won't fade and five o'clock not together column er large conglomerates have various subsidiaries in various industries from reptiles aircraft also there then mining energy Hi and many more well Hi Jason asked if there was a subsidiary that was having trouble with capital that called them both for the word crater needs Capital injection because how come the color is already bloody like that we can assume like that even though in the article it is not said after that brother interestingly Jali answered the phone is now Ring of the f*** Well what does the phone mean hasn't rung that means the subsidiary hasn't called them that's why it was made the title of this article which is appropriate on the one hand if we interpret it connotatively maybe we think that Charlie is defending Charlie feels that this situation is still different still hasn't ringabel not yet ringing what a certain alarm that this is the time to buy if I interpret the connotation like that but what is meant is the phone is no Ringo that means the phone from the subsidiary hasn't rung hasn't called they have n't asked for capital injection like that so Charly said further in the article that indeed the situation this time feels different in the sense on the other hand if I translate that in my opinion it turns out according to although business stopped but the stock exchange also turned out After falling in mid-March it turns out that now the lactate has risen once it has approached what level, the level at the beginning of the year, maybe in America this situation is different Hi they said they don't know, brother, then Jason Swag asked whether this is approaching a great raison situation or the possibility of a great depression in 1929, which was famously called the great depression, yes, the melas era, dialogue in the old people, the story was just lazy in the Malaysian era Is there a big possibility of a new present to Jason White's question like that According to Charly, he answered but answered that this is a review Yes and I really feel but how big will this happen How long will this fortune be, Charlie answered Nobody Knows, no one knows Hi, on the one hand, we can catch a pessimistic tone in Kalimanggis's answers like that If you want to know the details of the long leaves, please study the article because we respect copyright, yes, we will review, we will review and I will comment a little, yes, brother, that was Bachsin's answer, but on the other hand, he added that Hi, we don't believe that this will be like a long-lasting great depression, but we don't believe that this will be like the big iron of the great depression era of the year 1929 Yasmin 1929 before World War 2 that the depression would need recovery up to 10 years for that period well but don't believe that but then times added that maybe the employment level in this post-crisis era after corona might not match the level when in 2019 last year maybe Hi according to Charly we will we in the mosque there yes we in America yes we will lose the instrument level like 2019 we might have difficulty stepping on that employment that fast to achieve that we even added there was an SMS insert pessimistic pity others that maybe big will close some businesses Well my brother also needs to add a little story as context that the website today Warren Buffett and Charlie are known to be very patient in managing their Capital they only buy if there is a very very worthy opportunity and they are able to hold the test for a long time well from several articles including those in the full link motif are in the description Well later we will have to present the texture has prepared will issue new debt securities Well this debt securities are worth around one dollar film or more yes on the other hand they also maybe you have often heard that they have fresh cash funds in BCA accounts around 120 William dollar in ice and also in sok teung investment whether trees or others are interesting from this side maybe we are useful Yes for us as general investors who want to learn from the conservatism of Warren Buffett and Charlie Mangga yes now in the current condition The distance of the starting point or the main point that we can learn is Charlie Mangga's view in my opinion In our opinion it is neutral in the sense that there is an element of concern alert but on the other hand there are also sides I don't believe this no it won't be like the great depression long lasting Christie present doesn't believe from like that brother that was the investment view of Mangga in the midst of this pandemic hopefully useful Thank you for your like Thank you for your comments on this topic or other topics see you in the next episode
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