저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 금리 인상 지속과 유동성 경색으로 금융위기 우려가 커지고 있으며, 약세장 후반에는 혁신 자산이 상대적으로 강하다는 입장. 금융시장 및 유동성: 미국 주식과 채권이 고점 대비 동반 하락해 투자자 손실이 2008~09년보다 크다고 진단. 마진콜 압박으로 가장 유동성 높은 자산인 미국 국채가 매도되고 있으며, 금리 상승 흐름이 이어질 수 있다고 봄. 미 연준의 긴축이 국제적 파급을 낳고 있으며, 달러 부채 부담으로 각국이 달러 매도 개입을 하고 있다고 설명. 혁신 자산: 약세장 후반에는 혁신 분야가 상대적으로 강하다는 과거 경험을 제시하며 비트코인이 최근 한 달간 횡보하며 버틴 점을 언급. 연준 평가: 파월 의장을 볼커 전 의장에 비유하며 인플레이션 억제를 위해 강하게 밀어붙인다고 평가. 이번 인플레이션은 15년에 걸친 기대 인플레이션 문제가 아니라 팬데믹·공급망·러시아-우크라이나 등 충격에서 비롯됐다고 주장. 11월 2일 75bp 인상 가능성을 언급하며 연준이 데이터 의존적이라면 전체 지표를 봐야 한다고 비판. 신용 및 실물 경기: 중고차 가격지수(Manheim)가 한 달 새 3% 이상, 전월 대비 4% 이상 하락해 하락률이 연 20% 수준이라고 제시. 중고차 재고 손실로 딜러 매도가 이어지고 자동차 대출 자산의 잔존가치 가정이 흔들릴 수 있다고 경고. 기업 부채 부담이 커져 특히 소매 등 구조조정 섹터에서 문제가 될 것이라고 봄. 나이키 재고가 북미 68%, 이동 중 재고 85% 증가해 연말 할인 경쟁이 불가피하다고 분석. 경기 지표: 9월 ISM 50 하회, 구인 건수 한 달 새 110만 건 감소, 감원 발표 전년 대비 68% 증가, 선행지표 5개월 연속 하락을 근거로 경기침체 신호로 해석. 필립스 곡선 가정은 틀렸으며 강한 경기 회복 시 생산성 향상으로 인플레이션이 낮아졌다고 주장. 원자재: 고점 대비 금 -17%, 구리 -30%, 목재 -73%, 철광석 -45%, 옥수수 -17%, 은 -29%, D램 -46%, 발틱운임지수 -48%, 유가 -29%로 수요 붕괴 신호라고 제시. 출연자 전망: 디플레이션 압력이 인플레이션 우려보다 더 큰 위험이라고 봄. 혁신주가 약세장 후반에 주도주가 될 것이라는 입장.
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most people here in the United States are not aware of it or haven't thought very carefully about it because it doesn't seem to matter to us in the U.S alone if you take equities and bonds and look at what's happened since the peak you will see that the the loss to investors is more than twice what we saw in 0809 that's how bad this is because bonds are selling off with stocks this time and one of the reasons for that is a seizing up of liquidity if people are facing margin calls or in financial difficulty they're going to sell their most liquid asset they will have no choice especially with margin calls most liquid assets tend to be government bonds and I think that's why we're seeing the backup in government bonds here despite all of the inflationary signals in the pipeline
so what do you do is if you're deleveraging in an illiquid environment all all markets are are experiencing duress uh today I think the FED is a big part of that so what do you do you sell the most liquid assets what are those those are government bonds we're seeing U.S government bonds which are held in Pension funds abroad being sold even though deflationary pressures are mounting all over the place and so we think this is a a bit of a financial crisis and we think we'll see it elsewhere as the FED continues to raise interest rates as it seems want to do certainly this week was full of speeches from all the FED members reminding everyone that they're going to take interest rates up until we get to two percent inflation
I think this is getting to be so serious that we are reaching a cathartic moment and I do think it started uh with the guilt trip uh and uh the FED has acknowledged that there are international ramifications to what it is doing but it is thinking first and foremost about the U.S this reminds me a lot of the early 80s and uh what happened in the early 80s there were two Accords the the louvrecord and the plaza Accord where the the treasury ministers around the world all agreed to sell dollars to limit the deflationary impact on the rest of the world but they are being strangled by Dollar denominated debt that they cannot they cannot service we've seen China intervene to limit the weakening of it of the Yuan we've seen and doing the same now what is that what are they doing when they do that well when Japan is trying to support its currency at 1 45 Yen to the dollar what it does is it sells dollars and buys back Yen now that that's good in a way it's doing some of what the FED should be doing here actually it's providing dollar liquidity to the rest of the world China is doing the same thing
interestingly One Price indicator associated with Innovation is holding up beginning to hold up better than other prices and that's Bitcoin it's been interesting to see it Flatline in the last month while other indicators are reaching for new lows now this is not surprising in the late stages of an bear Market in our experience Innovation starts to outperform in the late stages of a bear Market why does that happen it happens because Innovation is the new leadership Innovation solves problems and Innovation solves the kinds of problems we have today supply chain food energy shortages think the genomic Revolution electric vehicles and so forth and so we believe that Innovation should outperform if we're toward the end of this bear market
and reflecting a little bit more on the Jackson Hole speech that that chairman Powell gave in late August we've come to recognize that terminal pal really does think he is The Reincarnation of chairman volcker that we need him to take a sledgehammer to inflation much like volcker did and history has treated chairman volcker very kindly he did turn the tide on inflation now what he did though was he turned a tide that had been building for 15 years it started did in 1964 with the Vietnam War and with the Great Society so many social programs started at that time under President Johnson and for 15 years fiscal and monetary policy pretty much went rogue as we look at history even after shocks to the system like the oil embargo and the stimulus that came about because of it both monetary and fiscal policy we never saw the kind of slowdown in monetary and fiscal policy that we're seeing right now and so chairman volcker did choke off money supply and and killed inflation it took a long time for people to believe that inflation had peaked in fact I don't think many people believe it peaked as it did in 1981 until 1986 when oil prices crashed so the inflation expectations were embedded in the system and it was very difficult and volcker did a masterful job
so that was over a 15-year period that inflation had built by the time the FED got around to tackling it this time it was not a 15-year problem 15-month problem and from our point of view it was caused primarily by shocks major shocks to the system that we had never seen before we had not had since the Spanish influenza a global pandemic and we did not have the supply chain problems two years worth of them that we had because of the coven panic and then of course we had another shock to top those off and that was Russia's invasion of Ukraine so these are shocks to the system this was not a period of embedding inflation expectations and yet German pal is taking a sledgehammer that is actually bigger and and could be eight to ten times bigger
If the Fed does raise the FED funds rate another another 75 basis points on November 2nd we've been worrying about auto credit for a while now and now we have more reason to yesterday we got the Mannheim used car index it's a value index pricing effectively and it dropped another three percent plus it was four percent plus decline last month it's it's declining at more than a 20 rate now why is this important well a lot of Auto paper out there makes assumptions or the investors make assumptions about the residual values of cars and those residual values have been going up maybe not as much as the used car index but they have been firm if we're right the used car price index is going to collapse here why well many people bought cars during covid because they wanted to avoid mass transit in under normal conditions they didn't need that car nonetheless they were quite happy to see used car prices going up with a thought that when the coast is clear they would sell back into the into the market into the used car market and as I mentioned used car prices were up 54 on a year-over-year basis at one point now they're flat to down and now dealers who were paying too much for used cars are sitting on losses and they are going to have to disgorge those inventories because inventories cost money to carry especially as interest rates are going up so they're going to be forced to sell and we believe that's already happening
what's another week linked in the United States well corporations have a lot of debt why do they have a lot of debt well they've been catering to short-term shareholders who want them to buy shares and don't mind that they're leveraging up to do so or they want them to pay dividends and don't mind that they're leveraging up because becoming more indebted well this is becoming a big problem for certain sectors of the economy that are in the throes of disruption both cyclical and secular and I think the retail sector is one of those we remain astonished at the inventory build up taking place out there and and the way we're looking at this now from a deflationary point of view and you know we think that's the bigger risk now out there is the pipeline is full of missionary indicators starting from Commodities but at the end of the pipeline a downstream at the consumer level the latest one pretty provocative is Nike and and Nike is both a retailer but it mostly sells to retail
Nike's inventories well first of all it's Global sales we're up three percent uh in this last quarter its inventories increase 44 and that's an August quarter there were already telltale signs that the consumer was weakening it's North American inventories were up 68 and the inventories in transit mostly from Asia were up 85 percent so you know what's going to happen in order to clear the shelves Nike is going to have to cut prices and retailers will as well and we believe this is just a microcosm of a much broader problem out there and we think we will see it in full force at this holiday season so you should get some you should look for and demand Bargain Basement pricing uh this this um this holiday season
November 2nd they're going to increase their saying pretty unanimously 75 basis points so we took a look at the data for the last month because the FED is saying that it's data driven so if it's data driven let's do that and so we looked at all of the indicators for this last month just the last month and we found 22 firm or strong indicators suggesting employment and inflation might linger at a higher than expected rate we found 22 week indicators now pulling out the ones that are specific to employment and inflation since those are the two variables that the FED is is weighing more than any other so on the on the the weak side again if if the FED were data driven it would we are paying attention to employment in the ism index for September below 50 means it's Contracting uh the job openings so jolts they dropped a million in one month uh now still strong at 10 10 million they dropped 1.1 million that's a big drop in just one month so job openings are are declining
we're also seeing surveys out there I think of in the U.S among major employers 300 have announced layoffs and that's reflected in something called The Challenger layoff survey and those layoffs which are broad-based company layoffs are up 68 year over year I would also imagine that they would consider leading indicators which in every recession and Recovery in my experience the FED has paid a lot of mine too it dropped 0.3 percent in the month last month and that makes for five consecutive months of Decline and the rule of thumb there is once you've got three you know you're in a recession so the FED may be saying that it's data dependent uh but it's looking at the data it wants to to look at it's not looking at the totality here it's also making an assumption that we think is mistaken it's very much a Phillips curve fed now that's a very Keynesian Keynes economic theory uh concept and it basically says that Rising output and employment causes inflation or and they're at the very least highly correlated and that's just not true if you look at the data 80s 90s 2000s you'll see that inflation came down during times when the economy was very strong why it's because of productivity productivity growth is is a a byproduct and a critical byproduct and an anti-inflationary byproduct of good strong recoveries
so let's go to the commodity prices again data-driven fed uh are you listening so we'll start with uh from their peaks gold price the gold price down 17 percent copper down 30 Lumber down 73 think about that housing is collapsing iron ore down 45 percent infrastructure around the world has run into trouble especially China corn down 17 percent silver down 29. dram prices which are chips semiconductors down 46 percent the Baltic Freight index about 48 that's an indicator of supply chain issues oil down 29 percent and many people have been dismissing these and saying yeah but that's uh you know they went to Sky High prices you know they're still not down on a year-over-year basis that's not true anymore having come down from 130 dollars to ninety dollars it is in a downtrend mostly because of demand destruction uh so just taking the evidence and putting it together like this there is a lot of data to be driving the FED which is what they say is happening but we don't think it's happening foreign
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