저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 빠져 있으며 국채와 달러에 낀 거품이 결국 터진다고 주장한다. 경기 상황: 2분기 GDP 성장률 1.3%는 물가를 3%로 보면 이미 역성장이라고 주장. 제조업도 수축 국면이라고 언급. 금·달러 비교: 다우지수는 금 7.8온스 가치에 불과하며 12년 약세장 이후 80% 이상 하락했다고 주장. 주가 상승이 아니라 달러 가치 하락의 문제라고 설명. 금리와 연준: 연준의 돈 찍기(QE)는 채권을 오히려 매력 없게 만든다고 주장. 금리가 오르면 정부 부채 거품이 터지고 '장기' 파국이 온다고 전망. 거품 진단: 국채, 정부 부채, 달러 모두 거품이며 소비·재정 지출에 기댄 경제는 무너진다고 주장. 해법 및 리스크: 국가 파산을 인정하고 부채 재조정, 정부 지출 대폭 축소, 세법 개혁, 시장 자율 회복이 필요하다고 주장. 연준의 인플레이션 유도는 더 큰 재앙을 낳는다고 경고. 출연자 전망: 정치인들은 고통스러운 구조조정을 받아들이지 않을 것이라고 발언. 구체적 시점은 제시하지 않음. 한계: 자막 기준 주가·금리의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없고, 장기 견해 위주.
다듬은 글
what stock exchange this Monday morning now this most of the economic news lately been lousy week employment numbers GDP growth are barely more than one percent a report last week shown Manufacturing is in contraction are we headed for another recession or are we maybe already in one joining us now is Peter Schiff from Euro Pacific Capital a lot of talk this morning Peter that we are going to be in recession in the year 2013 regardless of who wins the election that's pretty much the backdrop to the market action today what do you say well first of all Stuart I think we're in a recession right now look at the the the second quarter revised GDP numbers from last week the government claims that the economy is growing at 1.3 percent but they also claim that inflation is annualizing out at 1.6 percent if inflation is actually 3 percent right now and not 1.6 percent the economy is already contracting and you're talking about the Dow Jones this morning being up in terms of gold today it's actually down in fact the Dow is now worth less than 7 point 8 ounces of gold that's down more than 80 percent since the bear market began 12 years ago so it's not that the stock market's going up it's not the value of our money is going down that's interesting Peter let me return to the original question though okay you say we are in a recession already then in 2013 does it get much worse I'm looking for a time frame on the real spiral down here well it's gonna get worse it's gonna get a lot worse when interest rates finally respond to all this inflation by rising and then we go over the real fiscal hold on a second rate go up the party's over I hate to interrupt you Peter I'm sorry about this but look you you say the party's over when interest rates start to rise doesn't the Fed just print a lot more money to keep those interest rates down on Treasury securities well and you might be surprised is because of all the money the Fed is printing you see when the Fed prints money it actually makes bonds less attractive not more attractive because if the basis the currency in which they're denominated in the short run yes it helps the bond market but only if you're smart enough to sell it's the people who are bailing out of bonds and selling to the Fed that benefit from QE anybody holding bonds is going to be left holding the back a little later on this program I'm gonna do an editorial saying that we are in another bubble and that bubble is America's debt Treasury securities and that sooner or later that bubble will burst I'm basically agreeing with you Peter and then about the timeframe and I'm basically agreeing with you are you in agreement with me that with this is a bubble in Treasuries of course it's a bubble it's the biggest bubble and it's not just Treasuries it's actually a bubble in government government is enormous because they can borrow all this money so cheap so you have a government bubble and it's reflected in the bond market and in the dollar so it's the dollar that's a bubble along with Treasuries and it's all gonna burst and this whole phony economy that is built on consumption finance spending both in the private sector and through the government is gonna come crashing down it's a bigger house of cards now than the one we erected prior to the financial crisis there's no way out is though I mean I look I don't know how this thing ends I don't know what bursts the bubble I don't know I'm not smart enough to know that but you're basically saying there is no way out this is about there's no easy way out there's no there's gonna be a waters there's it there's the yeah there's the correct way out and then there's what we're doing we're trying to inflate our way out of it and we're gonna inflate our way into something worse what we need to do do is admit as a nation that we're insolvent we need to restructure our debts we need to dramatically shrink government spending reform the tax code and allow the market to repair the damage that the government is inflicted on the economy well we have we have miss allocations of resources we don't have enough savings we don't have enough production we have too much speculation all of that is because the Fed keeps force-feeding cheap money into the economy because it thinks it's gonna create jobs it's not going to create anything but disaster I'm with you Peter the difference between us and we've had this argument before is that no politician can get elected to dog catcher if they want to get the take the pain immediately I know we've had this argument before no politician can get elected doing that but we're out of time Peter so you don't get your 10 cents worth okay but come back we are going to get I promise you Peter Schiff good luck
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