저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
요약 보기
시장이 비싸고 투자자들이 낙관을 과도하게 반영하고 있어 기대 실망 위험이 있다. 미국 S&P500 10년 수익률은 낮은 한 자릿수가 예상되며 공격보다 방어 쪽으로 포트폴리오를 조금 옮길 시점이라고 주장. 미국 재정 적자와 달러 신뢰 우려로 장기금리가 오르는 것을 경계하며, 채권은 확정 수익을 주는 대신 주식은 소유 리스크를 진다는 구도로 설명.
다듬은 글
I think it can't be argued that the market is expensive. It may become more expensive. People may continue to make money. Uh but certainly things are not on sale. Number one, investors are by nature uh optimistic. You have to be by nature an optimistic. What what investors do is they give up their money uh for a while in the hope of getting more back later.
So that is by definition optimistic. I think that optimism dies hard. I think that optimism introduces cognitive dissonance. That is to say, investors are good at ignoring negatives for a long time and and if there are ambiguous events in interpreting them positively. There are also some actual positives uh at work.
Uh one of which uh might be AI u and AI, you know, some people hold out great hopes for what that will do for our economy. The companies of today, the so-called magnificent seven that account for 30 odd percent of the S&P 500, uh are some of the greatest companies we've ever seen. They have uh incredible technological leads, moes, uh market shares, incremental profitability.
Um so I mean when the market is strong, it's never without uh a seed of reason. The only question is whether it's sufficient. And uh and more importantly when the market is uh incorporating unusual optimism one thing that introduces is room for disappointment and if if the reasons for the optimism tend not to be realized then you can have uh some real damage done.
So it it's a balancing act. I never want to give the impression that the arguments are all on one side or the other. uh but there's no doubt about the fact that the market today incorporates optimism and that has certain uh implications. You started off I think today Amanda by saying none of this is easy and it's not.
It's it's a complex field. It requires expertise. Um you know Charlie Munger Warren's partner who passed away a year and a half ago uh said to me none of this is meant to be easy. Anybody who thinks it's easy is stupid. You know, the the worst thing you can do in the world is is overlook complexity and think things are easy because if you do, you're likely to be victimized.
But I think it's reasonable at this point in time to just be a defcon 2, which is to say just to start biasing your portfolio more towards defense and less towards offense. I'm not saying get out of the markets. I'm not saying don't have investments. And uh I'm just saying maybe you should shift some of your investments towards uh lower returning things uh which offer more safety.
Uh uh in general this is when I suggest increased defense. This is what I'm thinking about. Uh and you know the point is is if you buy what we call fixed income securities like bonds you have a promise of interest and a promise of getting your money back at the end. And if the issu bond issuer, the borrower doesn't keep that promise uh they go through bankruptcy and the creditors get the company.
So they have a lot of incentive to do so. Um and so we have our sector uh in the in the industry our sector is called fixed income because the outcome is fixed and uh you know so you today you can get let's say 4 and a.5% from a 10-year US treasury with I would say 100% certainty and uh let's say 7% from high yield bonds uh with 99% certainty that's been our experience uh so far 99% have paid every year those are decent returns s fully taxed, but it's good to have some of them to even out the fluctuations in your portfolio.
Uh there are I wrote a memo called ruminations on asset allocation uh roughly October of last year and I said there are two kinds of asset classes owning and lending. Uh and you know I think you do a good job Amanda putting things in simple terms so I'll try to emulate that. your brother-in-law uh wants to start a business and your spouse says you have to give him money.
You have two choices. You can lend him money in the hope that he'll pay you interest and get your and you get your principal back at the end. You're not a you're not involved in the business. You don't rise and fall with the success of the business, but you hope to get repaid at the end. Or you can become a partner and if he kills it, you do well.
And if he does terribly, you lose all your money. Ownership or lending. Stocks are ownership. Bonds are lending. U if you if you shift towards lending because it's safer, you usually give up return. But you you offload a great deal of uncertainty. If you stay with ownership, you have the possibility of a much higher return, but also the possibility of a of of a low return or a negative return or a total loss.
Uh so every investor at every point in time has to ask themselves what do I want? Do I want to maximize my potential return or do I want to minimize the uncertainty I face? Uh you can't do both at the same time. Oh, I said in in one of my books that people come to me for financial advice friends and they ask what I they should do and I say, "Well, which is more important uh to uh keep what you have or make more?" And what did they say?
Both. Yes. Yeah. You can't you can't maximize both. You can't maximize the probability of increasing your wealth and maximize the probability of holding on to what you have at the same time. Everybody has to make a choice. And I think it's reasonable to to alter your choice uh as as conditions in the world change.
Fair enough. Generally speaking, it sounds to me like even though you're cautious, you're still an optimist about the markets. Is that a fair statement? Well, I when you say the market, you know, uh I'm I'm I'm less optimistic than usual about the US stock market. I think if you invest I I think if you invest in the S&P uh 500 your return over the next 10 years will be in low single digits.
So uh that's that's not optimistic. Uh I'm not panicked. Uh and you know the most important thing if you're going to be play in this game and and and be investing, you better not panic because if you're if you permit yourself to be ruled by your emotions, you will constantly do the wrong thing. uh and and uh and I don't panic, but this is not the time for uh a carefree attitude.
Does it seem like a really weird disconnect that what's happening in the bond market is happening in tandem with record stock prices instead of the it should in my experience it would be the opposite. When you see the bond market doing this, you would see people leaving stocks and that doesn't seem to be happening,
right? Usually there are three reasons uh for uh bond yields to go up. As you say uh when it when the yield goes up it indicates that that investors are demanding more uh payoff uh to to invest there. So there are normally three reasons. Number one is that the economy is doing extremely strong. Uh number two that's not the case as you indicated.
Number two is that the the overheating economy uh threatens rising inflation. Uh inflation seems to be somewhat benign although there's worry about the implications of the tariffs for prices. Uh but I think that the concern uh which is reflected in rising bond yields and by the way rising yields mean falling prices.
the fear that that the rising yields uh reflect is fear about the deficit and respect for the dollar and things like that and and that should be quite worrisome. Uh again this is uh maybe people don't understand uh the US fiscal position. Uh but I think it's it's uh you know um the US because of its preeminence uh 80 years ago after the end of World War II was given what I called a golden credit card.
Uh and if you have a golden credit card number one there's no credit limit and number two the bill never comes and number three the interest rate is unusually low. And we've had it for a long time. And if if you had a just think listeners what you would do if you had the golden credit card and the answer is you would buy a lot of stuff and you would spend more than you make because you never have to pay the debt.
And that's the way we've been acting. It probably is comes under the heading of too good to be true. It probably can't go on forever. Nobody can tell you when it's going to stop or why. And Buffett said at his Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in May, it's going to be a problem, but I can't tell you whether it's in two years or 20.
Uh, but sobriety requires one to say it it probably is going to be a problem at some point. And I think that's what the bond markets around the world are are uh are addressing.
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