저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 코로나 공포로 과열된 시장이 조정 중이며 긴 베어마켓과 달러 버블, 금·은 상승 및 비트코인 소멸을 전망한다. 시장 상황: 코로나 공포로 금융위기 이후 최악의 주간 흐름이 이어지고 있으며, 시장은 10년 넘게 상승해 과열 상태였다고 진단한다. 베어마켓은 과도함을 정리하는 과정으로 불가피하다고 본다. 거시·부채: 미국은 역사상 최대 채무국이며 트럼프 행정부와 의회의 대규모 재정지출로 부채가 급증했다. 중앙은행의 독립성은 사실상 사라졌다고 평가한다. 달러·유로: 유로는 위기 속에서 존속 여부가 불투명하다고 보며, 달러는 안전자산 선호로 더 크게 오르고 버블이 될 가능성이 있다고 전망한다. 달러의 기축통화 지위는 상실될 것으로 본다. 금·은: 정부 신뢰 하락 시 금과 은을 사는 것이 역사적으로 맞다고 보며, 금은 훨씬 더 높이 갈 것이라고 언급했다. 최근 매수를 재개했고 은도 일부 보유 중이다. 금 3000~5000달러 전망에 대해서는 가능하다고만 답했다. 암호화폐: 비트코인 등 사이버 화폐는 정부 통제 하에서 결국 0으로 갈 것이며, 성공할수록 정부 규제 대상이 될 것이라고 본다. 일부 코인은 이미 0이 되었다. 투자 조언: 일반 투자자는 자신이 아는 분야에만 투자하고 핫팁을 따르지 말아야 한다고 강조한다. 항공·호텔·해운·관광 등은 타격을 입어 기회가 생기고 있으나 맹목적 매수는 위험하다고 경고한다. 정치: 트럼프 재선 가능성에 대해 현직 대통령을 이기기 어렵다고 보며, 본인이라면 트럼프에 베팅하지 않겠다고 했으나 향후 실정 시 변수가 될 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 상승 랠리가 한 번 나올 수 있으나 최종적으로는 역대 최악의 침체가 될 것이며 회복까지 수년이 걸릴 수 있다고 본다. 정부의 정책 실수가 시장 향방을 좌우한다. 출연자 전망: 단기 반등 후에도 하락이 이어지고 최악의 상황은 아직 오지 않았다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the coronavirus fears continue to move stocks towards the worst weeks since the financial crisis what's the key navigating the sell-off joining me now is the legendary American investor and financial commentator Jim Rogers from Singapore thank you so much for joining us I'm delighted to see you again Manuel hello Jim what are your thoughts on the coronavirus how did your life change well my life changed first of all I can't how to leave Singapore if I want to because the airports are closed and the airlines are closed and yet most many countries are closed I couldn't go to China if I wanted to or Korea or so my life has changed a lot I used to travel a lot and now I'm home nothing wrong with being at home quite delighted but it certainly changed and and I don't go out very much because it's very hard to go out now so lots of change I saw an interview with you just a few weeks ago it was in New York City and now also New York City is like on quarantine what do you think about this such a lively city you looked for a long time in New York you live now in Singapore our life's had dramatically changed well yes but one of the things it's a bit of a shock Manuel to find out how little America prepared for this you know in China they didn't know it was coming so of course they were not prepared but they seemed to and Korea and other places Singapore Taiwan seem to have done a much much much better job of dealing with him America had three months notice it was coming everybody the world knew was happening America did nothing last week you couldn't even get a test yeah I don't know if you still can get a test there were only 1 million tests in the whole country a country 325 million people so it's a bit of a shock to find that America did nothing and now it's a disaster it's also a little disaster for the stock markets around the world they sold off where the markets overboard before and did you lose money personally there's no question that markets were overbought for you no manual it's been over 10 years since America had a bear market that's the longest in American history I mean it doesn't have to end but it could have gone on 20 years 30 years but it always has ended after four or eight or nine years in the past except this time it's very overextended the three months before at the top hit more markets went straight up governments were printing lots of money huge amounts of money spending lots of money stocks were very expensive so of course it was time there's always something when a market gets too high to make it go down in this case it was partially the virus which came in surprise I don't know why I surprised so many people it was all over the press for a month or two but it certainly made the markets go help make the markets go down your investments affected as well no of course everybody if you're long anything you've lost you've suffered in the past two or three months everything has gone down and everything is going down in a very dramatic quick fashion my shorts didn't go down my shorts went up but I don't have nearly as many shorts now as I have sometimes in the past what should like the average investor at home who has talks who own stocks what should they do to maybe protect their money first of all they shouldn't listen to me they shouldn't listen to anybody on the internet or the TV they should only invest in what they know about I can tell you what I'm doing but you should not do it because you saw some guy on the internet the people who are successful investors not all are the people who only invest in what they themselves know a lot about if you started listening to hot tips and the internet and the TV you're gonna lose money so my severe and nobody wants to hear it everybody wants a hot tip but I'm telling you if I if you could only have 20 investments in your life it would be very careful you wouldn't be jumping in and out of something you read in first shopper even inside Bourke shop you would be very careful today if you ask me what to do that's what you should do you want a hot tip I don't have a hot tip I think there is another probe problem the total worldwide debt has never been higher now with the corona virus outbreak been declared as a pandemic governments have announced hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus packages that will stamp depth even higher how worried should we be if all comes crashing down well you're young you should be very worried because you know America it's staggering America is already the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and Trump and the Congress have gone out and spent over two trillion more and printed hundreds of billions more i mean sometimes the the cure is worse than the disease and this is one of those times yes it may make things better for a few months but they don't care about a few years all they care about is the election and a few months but the rest of us at least I do and my attorney for my children this is going to be terrible other central bank is not independent anymore are they just like doing what presidents and leaders tell them they all claim to be but the Bank of Japan every day he goes to work and says yes yes yes I'll print more money and buy more shares you know even in the US now the quote independent central bankers and I don't know I cannot think of a single central bank now that is completely independent I'll try to think of that but I cannot think of any left but what could be the alternative if the fat or the ECB wouldn't do anything the economy would be worse and yes we've had bear markets since the beginning of time nobody likes to live through a bear market but a bear market cleans out excesses in an economy and then you can start over from a sounder base in a fourth if you have a forest fire forest fires are terrible if you're in the forest fire but the far as far is good for the forest it cleans out Deadwood it cleans out undergrowth and then the forest can grow sounder and even better that's what bear markets do I'm not saying I like bare markers nobody likes better markets but the facts are it's not the end of the world we've been having them for centuries and we will have them for more centuries what will this do to our currencies well the Euro or the dollar still exist in a few years not as we know them now certainly not the Euro there are already people many critics and people who attack the euro you don't need something like the Euro it just needs it on a sound basis and so far they have not been very sound with the construction of the euro US dollars certainly going to lose its status as the world's reserve current but you know it looks like the in my view the US dollar will go much higher probably turning to all get over price maybe turn into a bubble because in times of turmoil everybody looks for a safe haven they think the US dollars to safe haven it's not America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world but people think it's a safe haven so it's probably going to get overvalued might turn into a bubble I hope I'm small enough to sell it are you more optimistic for this year so far some gold well I do own some I do own so cold I haven't have a little silver right here for a few years but last summer I started buying again and I bought more recently but more last week in fact there are some voices here in Germany saying the gold will go up in the next years going up to three thousand even four or five thousand do you think this is possible anything's possible yes of course anything is possible but I don't listen to Hot Tips remember I told you don't listen Hot Tips I will say that before this is over gold is certainly going to go that high you know whenever people lose confidence in governments and money they always buy gold and silver many people say you shouldn't academics and politicians and bureaucrats they don't I don't care all of us peasants know that gold and silver good for millions of years and will be so I'm buying it and it's certainly going to go much much higher before this is over so I have another thing here for you what is your opinion on Bitcoin that will go to zero that all of those cyber currencies will disappear before it's over you may remember a hundred years ago people could use anything they wanted for money banks could print their own money legally you see shells gold silver whatever they want but then in the 1930s the Bank of England which was the most important bank in the world and said from now on it's an act of treason treason to use anything for money except our money well Manuel treason means they execute you so people stop using other things for money and that's what's going to happen to all of this as well someday if it works now you know the cyber cryptocurrency people say we're smarter than the government and they are smarter than the government but the government has the guns and when the government says it's treason to use it people will stop using it so all gonna disappear many of them already have disappeared as you know many have already gone to zero they will all go to zero in the end some of these coins were fraud a lot of them but you think even the Bitcoin will disappear I don't think I know maybe I was not clear I said especially if they're successful especially if they're successful governments do not like losing their power and their control I don't like that the governments have control I wish we could use anything we wanted for money but I know who has the guns I mean we receive this also like Facebook plant their own currency digital currency and they had a lot of problems and they step back at the moment so we don't hear much I think this is yeah what you're saying well Manuel yeah money is going to be on the computer and on the internet there's no question about that if you go to China now you it's hard to use mine you cannot buy an ice cream you cannot take a taxi if you have it's already on the computer in China so yes all of our monies could be on the computer but it's not this is going to be government money it's not gonna be the money you and I would like as I say I don't like this government's love it they know everything you do now they will call you up one day and say Manuel you drank too much beer last month you've got to change your life don't know everything you do in the future and they love that I don't what they love it let's talk about stocks which companies would you buy at the moment airlines hotels these companies who are like really beaten at the moment well obviously say you you you should listen to Virchow inside workshop these are where the opportunities are developing certainly yes not all one airline is already closed so you have to be careful you can't just buy blind but shipping transport airlines hotels tourism all of these things have been decimated so there are many opportunities developing let's talk about politics for a second again the u.s.
really have a huge problem at the moment Donald Trump for a long time said we won't have a big problem now the US has a huge problem do you think this could like cost his reelection this year well it could but it was very difficult to defeat a sitting president if you look at American history it's very difficult you know for president need boats in this state over here he spends a lot of money over there the opposition cannot do that so it's always difficult to get rid of a president in the White House it has been done and it can be done and if he continues to make mistakes and it gets worse yes there's a possibility your daughter wouldn't bet against it yet though I would not have bet against and I don't bet but if I were betting I would not bet against Trump not now I saw a video your daughter's appeared on Chinese TV show they surprised the audience by singing in fluent Chinese are your daughter's your best investment so far I hope they can take care of me someday sort of been the best success I've ever had what are your future goals what do you hope that we get through this very fast what if what do you think well I don't think we're going to get to it very fast the governments are doing everything they can in spending a lot of money and that's kind of certainly caused a big Rowlett but I it's not enough because as I said before the debt is staggering now 2008 we had a problem because there too much debt well since then Manuel the debt the debt is skyrocketed all over the world and this month alone the debt has skyrocketed even more so no this is this is going to get worse in the end but huge rally first but in the end this is not over it's going to be terrible is gonna be the worst in my lifetime and I'm older than you so it's gonna be the worst in your lifetime just a few years but what do you think how many years do we need to recover I'm not smart enough to know that yet you should really should watch inside for shocked they know it partly depends on the politicians the mistakes they make so far they're making mistake after mistake so I do right now I know it's going to get worse before it gets over are you on current teen as well are you afraid of the virus well I don't want to get too far nobody wants to get sick I think we all take our temperature around here three or four times a day we wash our hands we don't go out we do the things that we're supposed to do so I don't want to get the virus I don't want to get any sickness in Asia the situation is getting better right well from what I read yes the Asian countries seem to have done a much much much better job of getting it under control even though they didn't have much it was a surprise for everybody in Asia but if you look at Korea and Taiwan and Singapore and China they all now I don't know if you can believe the numbers cannot believe any government most of the time but they seem to have done a much better job Jim thank you so much for the interviewer with you all the best my pleasure my pleasure man well let's do it again sometimes they safe and healthy and all the best for you wash your hands bye bye Jim bye bye thank you thank you
댓글 0