저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 인플레이션은 일시적 정점이 아니며 수년간 지속될 것이라는 주장이다. 7월 CPI 헤드라인은 휘발유 가격 하락으로 멈췄을 뿐이고, 식품·임대료 등 핵심 물가는 계속 오르고 있다고 강조한다. 근원 물가 월 0.3% 상승을 연율화하면 여전히 높은 수준이다. 연준(Powell)은 결국 인플레이션 싸움을 포기하고 경기침체·금융위기 대응과 국채 부채 monetization을 택할 것이라고 본다. 볼커식 승리 후 전환과 달리 이번엔 패배 후 전환이며, 인플레이션이 이길 것이라는 전망이다. 연준은 대차대조표를 거의 줄이지 못하고 제로금리 복귀와 QE5에 나설 것으로 예상한다. 이때 시장은 과거와 달리 반응해 달러 약세와 달러 탈출(대체자산 이동)이 가속될 것이라고 본다. 모멘텀에서 가치주로의 순환매가 계속되고 있다는 기존 전망을 재확인한다. 실질 실업·노동참여율 데이터를 근거로 소프트랜딩 불가, 이미 경기침체 진행 중이라고 평가한다. 달러 약세로 인플레이션이 더 악화되는 연준의 자기 성공 함정도 지적한다. 미국 항만 구조(일방향 수입 후 빈 컨테이너 반출)와 중국 대비 항만 경쟁력 열세를 들어 미국의 생산 부족과 수입 의존을 비판한다. 케인스주의 정책과 실업을 통한 인플레이션 억제 논리는 잘못이며, 인플레이션은 민간 부문이 아니라 정부와 중앙은행이 만든다고 주장한다. 증시 반등은 인플레이션 승리 쪽으로 판단이 바뀌면 되돌림 위험이 크다는 취지다.
다듬은 글
first of all uh what zero represents is Joe Biden's understanding of the U.S economy because he has no clue what's going on you can't brag about the fact that we had one lone month where high prices didn't get any higher it's not like they went down they just didn't go up but if people were struggling with high prices their struggle didn't get any easier in the month of July it remained the same what would have been good is if prices could have come down but they didn't come down and in fact the only reason that the headline number didn't go up was because we finally got some relief at the pump gas prices came down but a lot of other prices food prices keep going up rents keep going up in fact you mentioned the core which doesn't include energy was up 0.3 on the month so if you annualize that multiply it by 12 that's still a pretty decent sized number yes it's not quite as huge as the numbers we've been getting but there's always going to be an ebb and flow in these numbers I mean how many times last year did all these analysts including people at in the government claim that we had Peak inflation I mean I got sick and tired of hearing Peak inflation back in 2021 I had to keep saying we're nowhere near the peak and the same thing applies today yes we may have hit a temporary Peak maybe it'll take a few more months before we see a year-over-year increase that's higher than the 9.1 that we got in June but there's no doubt in my mind that we will get a higher number than 9.1 we are nowhere near done with this inflation problem it is going to be here for years and years and years probably the remainder of this decade and probably then some and you know so just looking at one-off month where you know we didn't get a big rise in having this premature victory dance I think it is an insult to the American public I was predicting the U.S economy would be in recession in the first half of 2022 and very few people had that right but I also predicted that inflation wasn't transitory that it would get stronger as the economy got weaker and that is exactly what happened now the reason that I believe that inflation is going to kick into a higher gear as this recession that we are in gets worse is because I believe Powell is going to Pivot ultimately and he is going to give up his fight against inflation in order to fight a different Foe and that is going to be a recession and Rising unemployment and potentially a financial crisis either one that has already happened or one that is rapidly approaching and so I think Powell is going to choose what he believes to be the lesser of the two evils and I think he's going to pick fighting recession and propping up financial markets and monetizing government debt so the treasury doesn't have to default I think the FED is going to pick that over inflation and so unlike the pivot that we got with volcker back in 1982 where volcker pivoted after a victory in his fight against inflation Hal is going to Pivot despite defeat inflation is going to win and so when we go back to zero percent interest rates or whatever we do and when we go to qe5 which is going to be launched I don't think the FED is going to shrink its balance sheet very much it's going to shrink it less than it did last time it tried to do it which is an impossible task given the bubble that it's it's inflated I think when the FED goes back to stimulus and creating inflation when inflation is maybe double or triple or quadruple that two percent Target the markets are going to react very differently than how they reacted in the past because in the past the Fed was able to justify buy all this cheap money because they said we don't have enough inflation we're still below Target well when they go back to the stimulus when inflation is triple or more their target the markets aren't going to buy it and so I think all the inflation that they are going to have to uh create in order to stimulate the economy out of this recession is going to ignite a powder keg they wanted to pretend they could get it for nothing or that somehow the rich would pay for it but the rich aren't paying for it the middle class and the Working Poor are paying for it but they're not paying for it honestly through increased legitimate taxes they are paying for it this honestly through the inflation tax but the main reason the government loves to pay for stuff with the inflation tax is because it never accepts responsibility for levying that tax instead it blames it on other factors like greedy businessman gouging their customers or Vladimir Putin or OPEC or any other convenient scapegoat and then what does government do government says oh now we need more laws and more regulations to protect the public from inflation government is the source of all this inflation yet the government uses the inflation it creates as a springboard to even more government power this is Black Friday the day that officially kicks off the holiday shopping season where Americans are supposed to go out and buy stuff and this is considered economic activity in the United States the fact that we go out and buy things most of the stuff that Americans buy for Christmas we didn't make all this stuff is imported and so it's only possible because of the economic growth outside the United States not inside the United States all we're doing is creating money and we're exporting our inflation to the rest of the world in exchange for their good I mentioned about the holiday Black Friday where Americans are out there shopping the problem with Americans is we're consuming and not producing and nowhere is that more evident than when you look at the ports because I mentioned that one of the things that Dubai has as an economic Advantage is where it's located and they're able to have a port they have several ports but their largest port is the 11th largest port in the world and the reason that this port does so much business it's not that Dubai is manufacturing so much stuff that it's exporting what Dubai does is it Imports and then re-exports a lot of stuff because of how efficiently it operates and because of the lack of Duties but I thought I would take a look just to put this in perspective when it comes to Ports of the top 10 ports in the world China has the number one port and it has six of the top 10 ports in the world and it has 16 of the top 50 ports the top port in the United States ranks number 17 and America only has four of the top 50 ports yes the population of China is a little over four times greater than the population of the United States and so they roughly have four times the number of ports that we have in the top 50 but they have six ports in the top ten and we don't even have one plus even though China has a huge population the per capita income in America dwarfs the per capita income in China you would expect a lot more ports in proportion to the population here in the United States than they have in China and that's not true and the main problem is when it comes to ports in America it's one-way traffic because stuff comes in in but the containers leave empty and so there's a lot of trade that doesn't take place whereas in China not only does China import a lot but it exports a lot and so the volume of the trade is much greater maybe we should move a little slower and give the markets a little more time to react to the hikes that we've already put in place though we're going to see inflation moving up to a much higher level even though it's already very high in fact it's probably double what the government claims in the CPI if you want to know what's actually happening to prices you've got to double what the government tells you and that's more accurate the the data isn't lying we have fewer people working now we had four months ago you know Biden claimed that we have a record number of people in the workforce he was mistaken he's wrong we had more people working uh four months ago than we have working now so even though we've recovered the jobs that we lost prior to the pandemic it's only because the same people have multiple jobs we haven't recovered the workers we still have a lot of workers that were working prior to the pandemic that haven't rejoined the labor force we can't have a soft Landing because the soft Landing means we avoid recession so by that definition we've already crashed at the rally in the stock market but more important than the reaction in the stock market is the reaction in the currency Market the dollar got hit hard on Wednesday and in fact it's falling again here on Friday morning then I think we could really start seeing a weakening dollar which again is going to be very problematic for the FED because the weakening dollar is going to put more upward pressure on inflation and ironically of course the reason the dollar is weakening is because the markets think that the FED is winning his fight against inflation and so it won't have to fight as hard in the future and that is removing the supports from beneath the dollar causing the dollar to tank and now the very inflation that the markets thought the Fed was making progress in fighting is actually going to get worse so the FED will be a victim of its own success when it comes to inflation but when the markets perceive this I think it's really going to accelerate the movement out of US Dollars and into Alternatives in fact if you look at what's happening in the stock market itself it's exactly what I've been forecasting with respect to the continued rotation out of momentum into value I'm not going to change the meaning of a word just to deny that we're not in something that that we're in uh but Mike the point of that tweet is you have all these keynesians uh that somehow believe that inflation is caused by economic growth they also think it's caused by too many people we're working they think there's a trade-off between unemployment and inflation they think if there's not enough people unemployed you're going to have more inflation and a way to get rid of inflation is to put people out of work all of this is Keynesian nonsense inflation is not caused by the private sector
Comments 0