저자: 미상 · 외국인
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로빈후드(HOOD) 급등은 숏스퀴즈보다 리테일 모멘텀과 IPO 직후 과매도 반등에 가깝다고 분석. 공매도 비중은 유통주식의 약 5%로 스퀴즈 동력 부족. 수익원인 주문흐름대금(PFOF) 수익이 1분기 대비 2분기 급감(주식 132→51백만달러 추정)했고 전체 매출의 81%를 차지해 리스크로 지목. 동종 대비 매출 대비 밸류에이션이 가장 높고(주가 65~70달러 수준 프리미엄), 월간 활성 사용자 1인당 가치 부담 언급. 웹트래픽 둔화 신호도 제시. 장기 보유는 괜찮지만 단기 변동성 활용은 옵션 헤지 고려 권고.
다듬은 글
a quick prefac a robin hood short squeeze the momentum that's happening robinhood fundamental analysis so we've got a lot to talk about in this video i just wanted to give you a quick outline but let's talk about robinhood all right so obviously robin hood has gone parabolic and it begs the question that is robin hood just running on some crazy momentum is it getting short squeezed what's happening and if it's running on crazy momentum or it's getting short squeezed are we fundamentally overvalued at this point is it going to keep running or is it going to fall when we look at other momentum-based stocks we see the same patterns wrap it up rapid descent look at cciv meta materials you name it amc gme we've all seen the parabolic run and then a settle at some kind of lower level although usually that level can be higher than where the stock was before so are we going to return to 34 anytime soon probably not i think the initial open of robin hood falling 10 was likely due to insiders dumping shares to finally realize some of that capital they've been holding on to for a very long time inside the company so i'm not sure we're going to fall back to those kinds of levels but should we be sitting around 68 to 70 dollars i don't know let's talk about this a little bit first it's worth noting that the odds are that right now robin hood is not suffering a short squeeze that's because according to s3 partners we've got about 200 million shares trading of those about 10 million shares are short now i know it's hard for us to get our hands on short shares but institutional traders have their ways anyway that only works out to about five percent of the float so even if that five percent fully fully short that is only five percent short it's probably not enough to actually have a substantial short squeeze impact on robinhood stock so i don't think we've got ourselves a short squeeze what i think instead we have is a stock that was substantially oversold when it initially ipo'd and it wasn't oversold by retail it was under bought by retail so he was oversold by insiders leading the price to fall retail didn't want to buy the dip because most people said screw robin hood they were bad to us on gme that's obviously the commonplace impression and therefore we're not buying their stock forget them let them go to two dollars or whatever that was a pretty common retail impression now it wasn't until whether institutional borrower buyers or other retail started actually buying the dip that for a few days we had robinhood start trending up and when we started noticing that robinhood was trending up all of a sudden robin hood got the attention of wall street bets and all of a sudden when robin hood got the attention of wall street bets well you guessed it we got a parabolic increase in the price of robin hood in fact if we take a look at the day chart right here we'll be able to see exactly and corroborate exactly what i'm talking about this actually in fact it's been it's ipo'd so recently we're better off going to the hour chart so if we go to the hour chart and we zoom in here we can see ipo plummet on ipo people buy the dip on ipo day we get some gains a little volatility we get a second day here of gains we get two days of gains in a row that was enough to get the attention of wall street bets and boom all of a sudden we get this massive massive explosion in price not only yesterday that's tuesday where we opened up somewhere around 40 bucks actually the open was 37.90 we closed right around 47.89 but then we get really the retail momentum pick this stock up and all of a sudden we open uh at 54.45 and end up closing at 66.77 uh actually i'm sorry we closed at 70 39.
now right now the stock is down about 4.38 in after hours not a surprise for a day in which that it's up like 40 or 50 percent uh probably closer to 40 which is pretty incredible and he's not going up 40 to give back four percent in after hours big deal now a big tell is going to be what happens tomorrow are we going to get volume coming back to the stock or not now we're going to talk about fundamentals in a moment but just take a look at the volume here for a moment ipo day which usually has insane volume 102 million shares next day which ended up green 40 million shares next day which also was green 19 million shares then enter volume and it's buying volume 89 million shares 172 million shares it's nuts these are massive volume bars unfortunately much to the success of robinhood today it looks like a lot of potential momentum-based traders have taken their money out of stocks like amc to potentially fund their purchases in robin hood over the last few days now no guarantees of this and i'm not advocating this at all i love amc i'm still holding my mc because i promised i would uh it but ultimately robin hood is a very interesting one and i think right now we ought to talk a little bit about fundamentals where robinhood makes their money and payment for order flum so first i want to disclose that robin hood is a really big position of mine it's probably one of my biggest positions not just because the price has gone up but uh it's it's a big position of mine i also sent an alert that's just one of my alerts that i sent but i did send an alert when it was at 3421 buying the dip on ipo day adding to my existing position now uh robin hood fundamentally at this price we got some talking to do about this before we talk fundamentally though let's hit payment for order flow all right now before i explain what the heck this bloomberg terminal chart is here i want to encourage you to check out the amazing links down below where you can join my programs on building your wealth in real estate making youtube videos being a real estate agent where we talk options ta fundamental analysis you name it so if you like the way i explain things check out that 40 percent of coupon code stop the bullship repeat the link down below and folks let's get into this right here so this right here shows us that robinhood makes a lot of money from payment for order flow we already knew this in fact if we go to page 34 of the robinhood s1 we'll see for the year ended december 31st 2020 payment for order flow revenue was 75 and for the three months ended the first quarter of this year payment for order flow represented 81 of their revenues so obviously payment for order flow is a massive part of the money this company makes which if we look at the bloomberg terminal we could see exactly where this payment for order flow is coming from all right so to understand this what you're going to see here on the left side are different companies and then on the right side you're going to see total payments these companies received for payment for order flow and you're going to see here that td clearing takes the cake at receiving 31 million dollars worth of payment for order flow in just june 2021.
now what's really interesting is you have robinhood at 21.8 21.8 million dollars for just equities in just june now what's also really crazy about that is look at this this is the year to date you've got january here 47 million dollars in stock payment for order flow to robinhood goes up in february to 51 goes to 34 in march 16 and 13 in april and may and pops off again in june this is really interesting because you have when you add up over here 47 plus a 51 that'll bring you to around 98 uh plus a 34 that'll bring you to about 132 132 right here and payment for order flow on equities just super quick dirty kind of math here and then you'll see the payment for order flow over here robinhood only brought in about 51 million dollars in payment for order flow so a fraction of what we've had previously in fact if we divide 51 by 132 that gives us 38 that's only 38 of the revenue they previously had from payment for order flow and remember folks payment for order flow makes up 81 of the payments that robin hood gets that's that's intense this is something to keep an eye on okay then take a look at options though because we also get the amount of money that robin hood makes from options now you can see when it comes to payment for order flow for options that options payment for order flow has declined about eight percent at a robin hood in this last quarter here with options you can see though that robin hood is a powerhouse look at this 71 million in options payment for order flow in june that's a massive increase and it's the largest payment for order flow they have had in the last seven months folks forget about the past look at the trajectory that robin hood still has the power of commanding almost twice td ameritrades payment for order flow revenue twice td clearing revenue three almost three times e trades options clearing multiple times i mean how many times is this is almost five five times the clearing of more than five times the clearing of payment for order flow payments that weeble does with options robinhood is a payment for order flow powerhouse now this does create some potential risks i mean what happens if robin hood's equity payment for order flow goes away or somebody else comes up and all of a sudden gets more payment for order flow now what's also interesting though is noting how much of this payment for order flow revenue actually comes from citadel take a look at this you can see this is percentage by the way you can see that 31 of options order flow comes from citadel 29 comes from global execution brokers and when it comes to trading stocks that are in the s p 500 35 comes from citadel 31 comes from citadel for non s p 500 stocks and then you get to some of these others like g1 x execution vertu americas and so on so obviously payment for order flow makes a lot of money for robinhood we also know that payment for order flow revenue is declining for robinhood in this quarter about eight percent here and substantially more over here i mean going down from 132 million to 51 million clearly made ipowing now a very smart choice for robin hood because that is a decline of somewhere around 61 that's a massive decline on payment for order flow revenue so we're going to see some revenues come down at robinhood now who knows maybe they'll come back up but we had a little bit of a quiet quarter here and these are some important things to consider when we get into fundamentals so here's the thing first thing we want to look at is the valuation of some of these companies relative to their revenue in q1 not all of these have net earnings so i'm going to go with revenue in q1 and so right here i have valuation stripe valued at about 100 billion dollars you've got square valued at around 120 you've got so far valued at uh around a 13 billion dollars robin hood here valued at about 58 billion dollars and then what i did is i just took the revenue of quarter one alone and i calculated a ratio of quarter one revenue to their market cap so this is only quarter one revenue and you can see based on quarter one revenue robin hood actually has the highest valuation out of all of these at a price of somewhere around 65 to 70 it's pretty pricey you are paying basically a premium for the biggest payment for order flow processor now if payment for order flow risks come out from the sec then obviously robin is going to have trouble but if payment for order flow gets the green light from the sec and says you know what this is a competitive industry we see that only 31 is going to citadel and 29 is going to the competitors or whatever whatever whatever seems like there's enough of a free market here which we all know is kind of bs but anyway if that's the case and that's what the sec rules robinhood is going to get the green light for having not only the simplest platform but also a platform that has a ton of users who are making a ton of money for robinhood especially with options trading and so that's why you're paying a higher price to sales ratio here than uh what you would otherwise potentially some of these other companies now keep in mind robinhood also has some of the highest growth out of all these companies i would say a rival company to robin hood in terms of growth would be either sofi or potentially stripe which obviously stripe isn't public but square a firm coinbase interactive brokers td schwab these are all going to grow way slower than robin hood and so far in a firm while they might be great they also have negative q1 operating profit whereas robinhood has an 11.3 operating profit margin and this is actually where coinbase shines coinbase brings a lot of money to the bottom line now we expect some of their revenues to decline as well as crypto volatility goes down but boy oh boy they chose an excellent quarter to go profitable or i mean to ipo in because they make lots of money so don't get me wrong you're paying premiums for companies like coinbase and robinhood but these have situated themselves as basically being these powerhouses of consolidating users and then figuring out how to best monetize them take a look at this folks robinhood has about 17.7 million monthly active users that means right now you're paying about 3276 dollars per user at today's valuation for robinhood given that each user makes robinhood about 137 dollars per quarter at least using q1 numbers which means it could actually be less it would take you about six years to break even on what you're paying at this valuation per user it's on the rich side and what we really need is a lot of growth to come to robin hood and growth not to slow down unfortunately when we look at website traffic data for robinhood we're starting to see a slowdown in website traffic already for a q2 now it makes sense because that's similar to what we're seeing in payment for order flow i understand a lot of people use the app but these are some important things to consider so if you're in robin hood you got to ask yourself is this a long huddle for you if it's a long haul for you i'm all for it is this a short squeeze no is this something where you want to make a quick buck and get out hey well take advantage of the fact that you've got a lot of volatility all of a sudden you've got a movement all of a sudden supporting robinhood it'll either go up tomorrow or it'll go down tomorrow quite frankly you might consider looking into taking advantage of of some options to make sure you can hedge your strategy and ownership of these shares if you're not familiar with taking advantage of some of these strategies check out the programs linked down below like my stocks in psychology of money course where we talk about some of these strategies regularly and you get to see what kind of trades i'm making so please consider sharing it and folks we'll see in the next one thanks bye you
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