원문 보기
good morning Traders it is Monday January 27th taking a look at the charts we got some pretty wild price action today we've got a big kind of tech wipe out happening uh with more or less uh that China deep seek AI coming out people talking about it's being the number one download on Apple apps it's free it's lower cost it runs on lowcost chips and uh it is creating a wreaking havoc for the tech space especially the AI space with Nvidia down almost 15% at 1 Point um which we'll I'll I'll draw show a chart of shortly but overall lots of panic lots of going going on in the tech space uh Al Trump you know rattling the markets overseas with kind of sweeping tariffs with Columbia and all that stuff kind of coming through and and we got uh treasuries rallying we've got we got the bond market if we take a look at bonds they're up about a percent this morning having a pop for safety and uh Chinese uh economy activity is uh is kind of faltering and struggling after all of the stimulus that they've done so we're definitely seeing some worries here and people are wondering when they look at the tech space there's about $15 trillion doll added to the NASDAQ since 2022 with like kind of the AI kind of bubble and um now the Deep seek AI comes out and people are saying it's just as good as chat GPT and wondering if the US actually has control over AI has the dominant uh space in there or if China is going to swoop in and uh have something better so anyways let's let's kind of run through the markets of what's going on so more or less the NASDAQ is down the most here's the C the NASDAQ futures here you can see we're starting to bounce off the bottom on the daily chart if we look at the 30 or the 10-minute chart in the lower right hand corner kind of closed on Friday and then over uh over the the last session and a half or last day and a half more or less the Futures Trading we've seen it sell off have quite a drop we saw a couple levels significant pivot lows of the market kind of get broken if we uh pull up the 30 minute chart and just throw a horizontal line we have a pivot level right through here got a significant pivot pivot level here and we've got this one this pivot low right here as well so overall the market kind of has has been selling off obviously there's all these other pivot lows through here these two as well but we're really starting to pick up speed right down here this this standout low is fairly significant for the market and as soon as it broke that low you can see stops just got hit and the the volume really picked up and we saw waterfall sell off and usually that means we're getting close it also pierced this other one with a big volume Spike where there will be stops set and then it's usually as soon as everyone gets stopped out the market rebounds and shoots higher cleansing the market now the market is set to open uh still sharply lower uh obviously gaps as we know to the downside tend to get filled gaps on both sides whether up or down so this is going to be a big gap to the downside It's News driven so we'll see how that unfolds if we take a look at the QQQ we actually have a price spike which I haven't covered in a long time but typically when we have a price spike um we can see uh that Spike level get hit usually I look at a third half percent and or half of the move and 100% of the move as the three potential targets and it's a gap down and it fills the Gap so it'll be very interesting to see how today's news driven kind of uh Gap and selling hits and if we see Panic selling on our 30-minute Panic selling indicator as well now I've been talking about how Bitcoin is more or less attached to the uh growth stock space like the QQQ uh really Bitcoin has I don't think a whole lot to do with crypto um uh or sorry with crypto sorry with uh AI so much if we look at Bitcoin it's actually down 5% this morning uh having a pretty good haircut it tends to move with panic selling with with the growth stocks it's the same group of people speculative people wanting to make money and uh when they get scared they sell everything in including Bitcoin and when there's mass panic selling we see like everything sell off including safe havens like gold and things like that so um there isn't really always a safe haven but today is a news driven move so the biggest move down is in the NASDAQ Tech heavy but if we go and we look at the other indexes the Russell 2000 is only down about 8/10 of percent very small this morning if we zoom in a little bit more um the Dow is only down 610 of a percent um so it's obviously not that Tech heavy and uh the sp500 is down about 2% at this point it's uh pretty sharp still for the SP 500 but overall it it was down about to almost 3% I think at one point and it's rebounded and having a bit of a bounce so the markets are trying to recover here into the closing bell bar bargain hunters stepping in people who love uh to buy every dip and um and see this as a news move um you know accumulating shares and starting to pick things up as they're uh looking oversold so if we kind of go the other Spectrum from technology we go to uh there's three sectors that are actually doing all right this morning Consumer Staples so it's out fairly sharply this morning uh for for this sector obviously toothpaste toilet paper all that stuff uh when there's chaos people want to move into a defensive sector and no matter what happens we're still going to need that stuff so consumer Stables are up Healthcare uh is also up in pre-market as a defensive play again not tied to technology so much and then real estate people get nervous about technology stocks and things like that they move to real estate and it's trading a little bit higher so those are kind of the three kind of old school basic foundations of of more or less life and they're all doing um holding up while everybody's flocking away or moving away from the tech space the AI space uh if we go take a look at energy real quick we have crude oil down 610 of a percent it has been fizzling out after a little while we had uh a couple big pops and moves to the upside uh couple of them were based on news and so now all that's starting to fizzle out so we'll see how that unfolds over the next little bit when we zoom out on oil uh you can see it's still making a series of overall lower highs lower lows and um uh again I I think the economy is slowly coming to a grinding Hall China is like stalled out no matter how much money they dump at it it's just not even turning and um I think all that going to eventually bleed over to uh the us and we'll see weakness there now let's just take a look over at um take a look at the hot list real quick we get the RK ETF top of the list it is set to open lower this morning um if we take a look at where it closed from yesterday it's down roughly about 3% uh semiconductors obviously getting hit uh with all the AI chips all the um based with the AI side down about 6% was down almost 9% at one point this morning and of course Bitcoin is down about 5% but let's take a look at the Magnificent 7 because they are um overall heavy weighting and pulling the NASDAQ down uh if we look at Nvidia I'll just flip to a 1440 minute chart which we kind of show us the pre-market activity here you can see a pretty big drop for NVIDIA and uh taking a big hit lots of volume trading and uh people wondering you know do you need an expensive Nvidia chip if uh you know China's got it figured out with lowcost uh chips uh and can produce something equally or better than what we have in the United States so that is the big question that's where money is getting wiped out of the market if we take a look at Microsoft obviously they're pretty big in the AI space it had a big hit this morning sold off it's rebounding fairly quickly as well uh Apple shares just haven't performed very well for a while they just keep selling off they've definitely I think lost their their they have leadership still but they're giving back market share they're losing market share in the phone space and all of that and I think it's just um uh just not you know doesn't have that huge potential that it used to have unless they come out with something new and I don't know what's going on with their AI even if they have one it's uh they are way behind the ball they better knock it out of the park when they do uh step into that Arena if we take a look at Google uh Google down sharply Amazon again all of these pretty much most stocks are down they have all had a big Panic wave of selling and they're all starting to rebound here uh meta uh the same it's rebounded and almost recovered everything so far and then we have Tesla which um is down a as well about four or 5% so overall markets are struggling it's uh everybody's dumping technology today and they're moving away from um that space and into Consumer Staples Healthcare real estate which we saw a wave of this last week as well I touched on this in one of the videos where we see money sloshing from really uh small Caps or or growth stocks one day and then they're over into these other defensive sectors the next day so money's definitely all over the place trying to figure out what to do when we take a look at the long-term picture the weekly chart of the SP 500 uh we go in the rising tide environment falling tide environment and we are still in a bullish environment uh the markets are pulling back a little bit today the SP 500's uh down about 2% in the grand scheme of things it's not the end of the world the market is shaking things up it shows how sensitive people are one piece of news comes out and the NASDAQ fell almost 5% in pre-market overnight trading last night it's starting to rebound all because of an AI is leading the way on the um from China from on the Apple Boards of the most downloaded and that it it works really well uh so it's definitely questioning the AI space and how quickly these markets can move with one little piece of data so we got I think lots of news rolling out this week in terms of what's going on with some economic data in the markets um and we got the FED decision rate on Wednesday so lots going on and we just have to let the market shake shake things up this is what they do especially in a in a rising market they try to Buck you off so some of the sharpest pullbacks happen in a rising Trend some of the sharpest rallies happen in a falling Trend so this is how the market shakes people up we'll just have to see how this unfolds and of course we have lots of wild cards Trump in there is um just dishes out the wild cards you never know what's going to happen every day and that keeps everybody on their toes but uh overall we follow the money follow the trends try not to get shaken up on news and uh and ride the ride the trends for what they are anyways that's it for now talk to you soon bye-bye
Comments 0