저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
조엘 그린블랫은 자신의 커리어에서 청산가치 절반에 거래되던 복잡한 자본구조 기업 투자를 떠올리며 가치투자 클럽(VIC) 설립의 계기를 설명하고, 집중투자와 큰 포지션 사이징의 원칙을 강조한다. 이후 스핀오프 종목(Comdex) 투자 실패 사례로 금융 레버리지보다 운영 레버리지의 위험을 배웠다고 말한다. 공동 발언자는 남들과 다르게 생각해야 탁월한 투자자가 되며, 틀릴 용기를 가져야 한다고 강조한다. 구체적 자산에 대한 향후 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
if you look back over your career can you can you talk about a home run that sticks out uh how did you find it how did you build conviction oh uh well I can think of one that was actually the inspiration for the uh value investors club uh we were just running our own Capital uh we ran outside capital for 10 years and we return all our outside capital I didn't take outside Capital again till 2009 uh um to run directly anyway so uh this was during a period where we run weren't running outside uh capital and uh one of my and so we were just looking for good ideas for ourselves and one of the uh we had figured out one of the best investments I had ever seen and it was the reason it was so great was it was uh it was a company selling at half its cash value with a great business attached okay and uh usually when I size positions it doesn't have so much to do uh my largest positions are not the ones I think I'm going to make the most money from my largest positions are the ones I don't think I'm going to lose money in uh so that I can buy a lot of that without taking much risk and if there's some optionality meaning it could it could go up and this had everything this I was buying at half its cash value with a good business attached it was a complicated capital structure uh that people couldn't figure out because it was relatively new and and people hadn't seen it but if you did that's what you were buying you you were buying something in half its cash value with a good business so obviously we bought a lot of that and we thought oh we're so smart we're one of the only people out there uh who's found this and then my partner found on a Yahoo message board of all places uh someone uh who had figured this out in all its complicated glory and uh funny story uh the gentleman who figured this out actually was working at a supermarket at the time he was just a really smart guy and it's a light bulb went off and we sort of said wow there's uh intelligent life out there wouldn't it be wouldn't it be great if we can put together a group of people who could talk people at the time this was 1999 were looking for millions of eyeballs on the internet and you know whatever they were talking about and I thought the internet was great to like have little meetings with people who are all over the country at different times or all over the world and and you could sort of have a little Club I was always fascinated with a idea of an investment Club so we actually he was one of the first members of the value investors club and it got the idea of could we attract smart people to share ideas that was that was a deal it was free to join but you had to share your good ideas and this gave us the idea that it wasn't just the normal hunting place places that you could find really smart people who did good work so that was a really good one half its cash value and uh with a good business attached and it was really because it was a cap a complicated capital structure uh the the I wouldn't call it my worst investment but I'd say my most disastrous investment I don't know anyway uh I've had a bunch of uh my partner Rob goon who Jo me in 1989 always joke uh that you know if we worked for someone else over the last 15 years they would have fired us about eight times you know so you ha you have to be willing to I guess make M mistakes and and you can't really avoid it and so uh our worst one was probably we actually uh bought uh through a spin-off a company uh that actually owned comex which used to be a computer trade show and and it was the biggest one and we were actually cre able to create it before uh the spin-off for about $3 a share and it was going to sell some new shares at $6 and that had been announced but yet we could create it by buying the parent and shorting another piece and creating what was left for about $3 so all good so far but we actually fell in love with the business uh what I loved about the business uh was that uh they ran this trade show in Las Vegas and you could rent all the trade space you wanted in Las Vegas at the time and it was available at about $2 a square foot and they could rerent it at $62 a square foot so uh whenever the trade show grew they would spend another $2 and get a $62 contribution um and so we fell in love with the operating dynamics of this business and the the stock actually went from $3 uh it went they sold some more stock at six and the stock actually went to 12 and we had a really large position at $3 the reason for that is that we thought we could get out right away at 6 we did not get out right away at 6 because we fell in love with the business it went to 12 so it sounds good so far uh but then unfortunately after uh shortly after about uh September 9th uh uh 2001 uh the the company bought another trade show uh borrowed a lot of money and then after September 11th no one wanted to travel at all and uh both um trade shows really went downhill and and everyone knows about financial leverage meaning you know hey you borrow a lot of money you pay your money you take your chances you know you put up a dollar you borrow nine you know that's a risky investment so this is how I learned about operating leverage which is when you lay out another $2 and collect 62 when the sales go down right uh when you lose $62 in Revenue 60 of your profits just evaporated and it drops immediately to the bottom line that's called operating leverage so that was my lesson in operating leverage the stock uh I think I got out at a little over one or so so um you know things happen you know there it's a lesson in concentration it's a lesson in uh operating leverage I learned a lot of things and and I can still safely say I'm always learning I'm always making a new mistake I'm trying not to make the same ones but the same ones usually have a little different face on them you're really making the same one but you know it presented in a little different way and you didn't notice it and uh you would go make that mistake again and so I guess advice would be don't be shy about making mistakes because you anyway well I think that's very important what Joel just said and I want everybody the audience to take cognizance of it um I wrote a memo in April called dare to be great and basically it said if you want to be exceptional as an investor you have to dare to be great everybody here is willing to be great but to be great you have to be different because if you think the same as everybody else you'll make the same actions if you take the same actions you'll have the same performance you certainly can't be accept exeptional if you follow the common course so to be exceptional you have to be different you also have to dare to be wrong and nobody bats a thousand the best baseball history hitter in history got four trips four hits every 10 times to the plate right some investors can do a little better than that but nobody adds a thousand and you know Joel mentioned that he could have been fired eight times and uh I had I'm a very kind boss so I didn't I I let myself stay and I I had lunch today with a guy who works for for birkshire Hathaway um and we were talking about what makes warrants successful and I said one of the things that makes him sex he's not afraid of getting fired uh but very few people have that luxury and the question is for those of us who work in the world where we can be fired if not by our employers then by our clients will we still take the chance and back our ideas that there are no sure things uh will you back to things that have a chance of being wrong and I think you have to take that chance
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