Markets have learned to fade geopolitical shocks, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian

요약 보기

중동 지정학 충격에 시장이 익숙해져 무시하는 경향이 있으나 이번에도 같을지는 불확실하다. 연준은 인플레이션과 고용 간 이중 책무가 충돌하고 무역·세제·이민·규제·지정학 등 정책 불확실성으로 마비 상태에 가깝다. 관세 영향은 가격 전가 능력에 따라 기업별로 엇갈려 아직 불명확하다. 소비자 부담 누적을 우려하며 연준이 결국 고용 약화에 무게를 둘 수 있다고 봤으나 정치적 독립성 문제로 과거보다 균형을 중시할 것으로 봤다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Welcome back. Investors have a lot to watch this week, from events in the Middle East to another Fed meeting on the horizon. Joining us now is Allianz's chief economic advisor, Mohamed El-Erian. Welcome back. Thank you, Scott. So, how do you see the market today in relation to our conversation on Friday, given that we still haven't had a resolution to what's happening in the Middle East, but the market is certainly handling it better?

02. Yes, I think two things happened today, Scott. One is behavioral. The market has learned to ignore geopolitical shocks because it has worked. And the second was the Wall Street Journal report you mentioned, saying there are indications that Iran is seeking de-escalation, is seeking to negotiate. I think that, ironically, on the ground, things have gotten worse, not better.

03. Therefore, you have this contrast where the market looks to the future and has learned to ignore these downturns. The question is: is it different this time or not? And I can't answer that question. I don't think anyone can answer that question. No, but judging by history, investors have been right more often than wrong in doing what you just said: ignoring the negative headline and looking the other way.

04. Yes, and one of the reasons they were right, and you mentioned this, is because there was a feeling that someone would come to help. And that someone was the Fed. And the Fed is in a very different position now. Inflation sidelined him. He is paralyzed. You heard Steve talk about the wait-and-see attitude, buying time.

05. He is paralyzed by three major uncertainties. Data exists, and we've heard repeatedly that it's unclear to the Fed where the data is going. Second, policies. President Powell listed four policy areas in which we need clarity. Trade, of course, tax, immigration, deregulation and, now, geopolitics. So you have these three major uncertainties that are paralyzing the Fed.

06. Well, I just wonder, I mean, is it really paralysis or is the Fed just comfortable relaxing and seeing how the situation unfolds because they have time? They have time on their side based on what the data has shown. Whether they have time on their side or not, we shall see. I worry that they may not have that much time left, that many things are piling up for the consumer.

07. And I really care about the consumer. But I really think they're just waiting. They are waiting for clarity. This is not a decision of mission accomplished, we are fine. This is a decision where we don't know what to do. Our dual mandate is going in different directions, and we don't know which one to respond to.

08. Therefore, I see it more as being on the sidelines because of uncertainty than as being actively content to stay out of it. To which do you think they would respond if there were friction between the two, something the president has said several times would always be a risk? They would tend to prioritize weakening the labor market, wouldn't they?

09. That's what I would have said a year ago. Today, I'm not so sure, because now we have the whole issue of the Fed's independence involved in this. But a year ago, I would have completely agreed with you. Now, I think they'll be a bit more balanced, also keeping an eye on inflation, because they don't want to appear forced by the president to cut interest rates.

10. No, I understand that, but why would they be seen as if they were doing that? I mean, the inflation data isn't skyrocketing. My recent readings haven't been bad at all . So why would this suddenly become political or politicized if they were actually cutting the rates because they could? Scott, we've been discussing this for a while now .

11. Nobody knows for sure what the following is. We've already seen the impact of the tariffs, which wasn't noticeable at first, or are we about to see the impact of the tariffs? Depending on which company you talk to, you get different answers. Those who lack pricing power tell you, "We simply can't pass on the prices." The others who have pricing power say, " It's coming." "We're reducing the inventory we acquired before the tariff increase, but wait until summer." So let's wait and see, as this is the balance between those with pricing power and those who do n't.