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and i don't pay any attention to macro forecasts you know we have worked together now for 54 years and i can't think of a time when we made a decision on a sick on a stock uh or on a company where a macro discussion where we've talked about macro and you know we don't we don't know what things are going to look like in any precise way and incidentally naturally we think if we don't know nobody else knows that's a little conceit that we have and uh uh so we you know why talk why spend time talking about something you really don't know don't know anything about you know i mean people do it all the time but it's it's not very productive so we talk about the businesses so how do you invest in a market where people like michael brewery like stanley drunk and miller are predicting market crashes that are going to rival 1929 we have to hear from someone like warren buffett bill miller on these topics to get how to invest what to do how to prepare for this so in this video we are going to talk about it michael burris prediction of the market crash how should we view the economy in this time because we understand that the crash can happen at any time but the thing about it is just looking at warren buffett and just hearing what warren buffett just said is that it's so unpredictable are we just wasting our time doing it and trying to predict it instead of actually looking for the best businesses to buy and just holding on and making sure those companies that you buy are really resilient and they're going to survive that time so you understand that view of warren buffett but the thing is it's all depending on where you are right now in your investment journey if you were about to retire i would be more open to hear what is going on around you because you still want that money for like five years from now you might need it like really badly so if the market does tank you won't be able to survive maybe because you need that money but market might recover in like six seven years and you only have like a two three year time period so i guess it's depending on where you are in your life so what's good to understand about the market is it's just entertainment listening to predictions looking at inflation numbers looking at everything it's good to get a good scope of everything around you but you don't use that as to make investment decisions because i remember like two three years ago people are saying oh the stock market is too high like it's gonna crash like this is two three four years ago people were saying the exact same thing so if people were saying the same thing four years ago and look where the market is now they would have missed all of that run up so it's good to have your ears open just hear what people are saying the sentiment going on but you can't make your overall your your investment decisions based on those predictions because you just don't know and it's just way too hard to predict so we're going to hear something about bill miller william green did an interview with bill miller and we're going to hear what he had to say about the economy what's the risk what's the market predictions and just how to view the overall situation going on right now because we still have people like michael bury stanley drunken miller we have so many hedge funds and fund managers saying oh the market might crash very soon there's too much mania going on so let's hail from bill miller himself it is totally futile to me it is the very simple equation we should make things as simple as possible let's go back to the world war two period and beyond the market goes up about three-fourths of the time because the economy goes up about three fourth quarters of the time if you accept one simple premise which is nobody has access to predict the future the future is fundamentally unpredictable if you observe that look at all the crazy predictions people made in the past but you're only making a bet on the growth overall usa canada europe you should only have one position which is bullish because the market will be up three quarters of the time three quarters of the time three quarters of the year months week position yourself for that is to make sure you can survive the one quarter of the time the market goes down 40 50 and take these opportunities to readjust your portfolio and take advantage of them that is one of the best things i've heard all year around about the economy because we have to realize in 10 to 15 years the economy is gonna get better and it goes up three-fourths of the time so you have to prepare for that one quarter of the time where it drops down 40-50 percent and that's when you have those resilient companies with strong balance sheets competitive advantages that are just going to survive those times so you heard it just from bill miller himself from warren buffett from charlie munger just focus on what you're doing focus on the business and don't worry too much about the economy maybe have some money on the side if you do and be able to have that temperament that emotional stability to have and stay ready for it when the crash happens love it and i appreciate it so much thank you i'm out peace don't it doesn't make any difference to me what he thinks about the future it doesn't make any difference to me you know what but what any economist thinks about it i have a general feeling that america will continue to work well and i don't you know that there's all throughout my adult lifetime and before that there's always been all kinds of opinions that you know about what's going to happen this year next year anything like that and nobody knows
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