저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은 등 귀금속이 법정통화 대비 오르는 것은 통화 구매력 하락의 신호라고 주장. 정부 인플레이션 통계 불신, 중국 생산 확대로 소비재 가격은 하락했으나 보험·교육·의료 등 정부 관여 분야는 급등한다고 설명. 은은 산업 수요 증가로 공급 부족 가능성, 백금이 금을 넘어설 수 있다는 견해 제시. 미·중 경쟁과 지정학적 긴장을 제1·2차 세계대전 사례에 비유. Fed 금리 인하 시 인플레이션 우려로 장기채는 피해야 하며 귀금속 보유가 필요하다고 조언.
다듬은 글
I mean, the his- the history of my involvement in gold and silver starts essentially in 1970, when gold was still at $35 an ounce. Wow. And then the US under Nixon went off the gold standard in on August 15, 1971. And after this, we had the first big bull market in gold and silver. And say it lasted until 1980.
And after 1980, we had a correction phase that lasted until 1999-2000. And then another bull market got underway until September 21st, I think 2011. And then at $1921, and then the gold price went down again to around 1,000. And then then the current bull market got underway. 4,000 more than 4,000 dollars.
And of course, people ask, "Well, why is gold going up?" Uh Some observers, of course, they never believed the inflation figures that are published by the government. Mhm. By the way, as a philosophical observation, a political philosop- philosophical pop- observation, I'd say a responsible and halfway intelligent person will never believe a word that is spoken by government officials, because 90% of it is are lies.
Mhm. But anyway, the the statistics about inflation have been grossly distorted. And one explanation for the increase in the price of gold is not that gold is going up, but that paper money are losing their purchasing power massively. Now, is it possible that the decline in the purchasing power is as much as is indicated by the decline against gold?
Yes, uh according to some statistics, the price of gold around $4,000 is about where it should be, but I can give you examples uh and that we have to acknowledge that uh so that inflation is uh existent in uh some assets and in some prices, but is nonexistent in other prices. Say, my grandparents, they got one of the first TV sets in Switzerland in 1954.
I remember that because I was at the time 8 years old and they and they had the soccer world championship in Switzerland. Mhm. And the final was between Hungary and Germany. And it rained all the time, so the TV never worked. But it was so angry and it was black and white and all you saw is rain coming down and you didn't see any soccer player, especially not Puskás, who was kind of Puskás, a genius soccer player from Hungary.
Mhm. Anyway, uh I remember this very well and this TV cost $2,000. Wow. went to buy a TV for my employees. And it cost I mean I could have bought with $2,000 I could have bought 10 TVs. Yeah, that's right. So and then I bought my refrigerator because I opened the door all the time to take the beer out.
The door broke. So I had to buy a new refrigerator. I was so surprised how cheap you you could have a decent refrigerator that works very well and uses less energy than the old refrigerator. So many things have become incredibly cheap partly and this I have to tell to you American audience instead of condemning in China all the time and speaking badly about the Chinese, you get your appliances much cheaper because of the Chinese production that came online and they produce zillions TV sets
Right. and computers and everything. And so the prices of consumer electronics and consumer appliances has gone down. Yeah. But the cost of insurance and the cost of education for your children that has gone through the sky. And wherever the government has a strong involvement the prices are beyond belief.
You know in schools and in hospitals [clears throat] I can the best advice financial advice I can give to people is not to get sick and have to go to a hospital that bankrupts them. Silver is more of an industrial commodity. And apparently you need a lot of silver for all these data centers and so forth and so on.
And that it's possible. And they say or the theory is that every year, like in the '70s, that was the case, the mining supply of silver is inferior to the mining demand for silver. So, prices go up. This is also the case for rare earth metals that went ballistic. Mhm. And my theory is that platinum will go up and exceed the price of gold, uh which would be a huge move from around $2,000 to over $4,000.
But, uh in general, people don't believe that yet, but I think it is going to happen. But, this is my view. Mhm. And I think, you know, say you look at commodity movements this year, the price of nickel has gone up already 10%. Yeah. And I mean, the big movements. And some people think that copper will go up substantially.
You see, I when I studied that, I was I was very interested in economic cycles, in business cycles, and so forth. And I studied the cycles of of Kuznets and Juglar and Benner and of Kondratiev. And the and so forth. Anyway, long-term kitchen, short-term cycles and very long-term cycles. And then later I became interested in war cycles.
As societies move through different stages, their propensity to go to war increases or diminishes. Right. Say a generation that grew up during the Second World War and saw the atrocities, they're late less likely to want to go to war than the children whose who maybe heard about the atrocities from third sources or so movies and so forth.
But uh the people that experienced war usually don't want to go to another war, except the generals and like Patton and so forth. Who were fanatics. He's A brilliant man, but a military man. And so uh the the current conditions in the world, geopolitically, with China having come from nowhere in 1970 economically speaking.
Mhm. At the time 2% of global industrial commodities were consumed by China. Now it's more like 50% or more. Incredible, that is the word. And uh their industrial production is huge, you know what I mean? They produce more cement than the rest of the world combined. Anyway, what I want to say is this location uh means that the US that was post-Second World War far ahead of everything else in the world.
Today has competitors. And that leads to huge tensions. I mean, I give you an example. In 1870, the British Empire was still dominant, including the British pound as a global currency. Mhm. But then, under Bismarck, the German industry grew very rapidly, and by 1910, Germany's Germany's economy exceeded the one of of of Britain.
Wow. And that, of course, disturbed Britain greatly. And that was another world power there competing with them. And [clears throat] so, it came to World War I. The most useless war in history. But fought with great enthusiasm by the generals, not by the soldiers, who were in the trenches and got out of the trenches, and couldn't even walk 5 m until they got shot from the other side.
I think the fact that gold has gone up relative to paper currencies is a sign that the bubble is popping because Trump, he wants to cut interest rates in a perfect world to 1% by year end. Right. But uh the gold market, if if they print again money, the gold and silver market and commodities in general will go up substantially.
In other words, inflation will pick up, and the Fed, the Federal Reserve, they control one interest rate, basically. Uh the the Fed the Fed funds rate, that is short-term rates. Mhm. But they don't control the bond market fully. Of course, they have an influence on the long-term bond market. But you understand, if you tell me, "I'm a bond holder.
In my asset allocation, I own bonds of different different maturities and so forth, but I like the cash flow." Mhm. But anyway, uh if you tell me the Fed will ease at the present time, I'm not going to buy a 20-years bond, not even a 10-years bond, because I think that this would be very inflationary.
Now, do you tell me that interest rates will go down? Yes, they can go down if the economy, as I believe, is much weaker than what the government is publishing. And I think this is the reality that the economy is actually rather weak, but as some people argue, like John Williams, we can have an inflationary depression.
In other words, wages in real terms go down. Mhm. [clears throat] And so most people live paycheck to to paycheck, and at the same time, you have financial assets going up because of money printing. Right. But the currency comes under pressure. Now you say, "Well, against what? The other central bankers are also printing money, the Europeans and so forth." Correct.
There's only one currency that may be stable, and that's precious metals. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So, this is my answer about precious metals. I think by not owning any precious metals uh people make a mistake. They should even if they go down, they may go down less than financial assets. Mhm. And this is the last thought I want to leave with you because I have you have to go and I have
Comments 0