원문 보기
all right so the market the way it is now this can tell the whole market really we're gonna have what direction how far we get have a couple more years of bull market ahead endless because look at all the worry we're not in you for you we're far from you for you we're still in a world where we're contracting the supply of equity we have you even gotten to where where new equity offerings exceed buybacks and and and take over a you know cash base takeovers the fact that matters the new issue world and equity based takeovers haven't created supply increasing normally unless you hit that wallop of those trillions of dollars a new big bad you get to where equity supply increases consistent without all there are markets right props coming out the gate up 40 bowls and everything about crypto was right into looking at you see will come that's a sign that it's alive and well in the spring and we will get it down the way but it's not actually two years left of the bull market don't hang me on - I understand but percentage-wise if you had to just throw a figure out there how much more Ronald conforming bull market on a global basis the first third of the time and the last third of the time are more than the middle third of the time that's the norm then it means that you get acceleration in the end you get a fast start you get a slow down and you get acceleration in the end and last year was strong I'd expect after we get past this correction we see average return in a bull market year of which we haven't had there's been a long slow grinding bull market average return in a bull market years about 20% the fact of the matter is people have forgotten the magnitude of what normal is in a bull market we ought to get some more good years before this is over that then lead to that optimism that turns into euphoria that has people not thinking ignoring all little things and thinking about things are gonna be perfect forever do you like technology I think technology will be back after this correction yes Facebook does that Telegraph problems for you just think of Facebook maybe as one that lags a little I've I was listening to a panel yesterday at Facebook kind of against Google in Google was playing this whole pattern much smarter than Facebook is because they're really saying that it's not our position to be engaged in trying to do the First Amendment's oppression which speaks to a journalist that is involved in saying that website is one that you shouldn't be able to have access to our search engine that's a smarter direction for them to play in a hands office those two young guys who ran that coming to me you know brought in adult supervision do you think Facebook needs that I think it is the world we live in today is unfair compared to the world that I grew up in when I was growing up you didn't get venture capital based CEOs who were kids they had to actually have proven histories and have been around up in through the war some you know in the world of Bob Noyce you know that whole that whole era you had veterans had actually been time-tested and had time to mature in the real world when you become a celebrity Big Bang CEO in your 20s you know isolated from the world had any president from Stein pretty well perfect no do we get perfect presidents no is he unusual by any standard overall however the economy is doing okay overall if a different Republican president had picked his justices people would think they were great fundamentally it's doing okay yeah there's a thought right now the Republicans are gonna lose the house now you look at the big big picture no but does that enter into your investment strategy who's in control of Congress arisen yeah so I love gridlock I've always loved gridlock we have a form another gets done yeah nothing hurts capitalism we have a form of gridlock now that we're not conventionally used to which is the Republican Party fractured so not much happens and you get the classic Republicans that won't stick with the core they're probably going to hang on to the Senate I think that's easy to see just look at the races just look at the at the eight Democratic seats that are up in Republican states it's going to be very hard for the Democrats yes indeed yes in the Senate in the house if the Democrats were to take the house you revert to the traditional former good long yeah it's not what the Fox viewer traditionally would like to see but it is the gridlock that doesn't accomplish adverse features against capitalism this administration that couple years isn't about to ramp up regulatory real real quickly a real estate hooker did you heard Jeff Zucker yes I was ten feet from him when he said that and what am I places I was an interviewing him but boy oh boy oh boy you talk about an opinion GOG yeah so he's his opinions are sound invalid he said he said he said literally TAS has nothing on Fox yeah or Fox has nothing on tasks either way you do it it's no good and they have nothing on product um let me real quickly real estate what do you think of real estate right now what kind of real estate real estate not on one thing residential real estate so I got two views on that one it's bull market to the prices are going up three they're not going to go up as much as people think the tax changes right a mortgage impact but thirdly you know I've written columns on this in USA Today two of them which got some of the most hostile reaction huge reaction and hostile consistently which is that people don't account for the cost of home ownership correctly and when you pull all the costs in home ownership returns are never as good as people think they are because there's all lot other cause it's not to build into it and so people overestimate how good an investment homes are and I think we're gonna see in the period ahead that homes become a worse investment than they've been in the past the fundamental reason for a home to become more valuable is either in nominal terms rising inflation or we're building family formation faster than we're building housing stock and for a long time we've been building housing stock faster than family formation and in a low inflation environment those two don't play for high returns interesting can't very good catching up with you great to see you in my Vestas sucker when you see him again or Bannon or any of the above ken Fischer regardless of your views bowl or bear one of the finest minds in the investment community
댓글 0