저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 가자 분쟁이 중동 전역으로 번질 위험은 있으나 기본 시나리오는 국지적 분쟁이며, 시장은 이를 대체로 반영하고 있다. 시장 반영 상황: 현재 가격은 기본 시나리오를 전제로 움직이고 있어 유가 등 주요 가격의 변동이 크지 않으며, 주식시장도 연준의 금리 동결 기대 등 다른 긍정 요인으로 회복했다. 하방 시나리오: 이란이 헤즈볼라를 동원해 레바논·서안지구로 전선이 확대되고 이스라엘이 이란을 공격하면 걸프 지역 원유 공급이 차질을 빚어 유가가 급등할 수 있다. 1973년 욤키푸르 전쟁, 1979년 혁명 당시 유가 충격과 같은 경로다. 유가·중앙은행 딜레마: 유가가 120~130달러까지 오르면 성장 둔화·경기침체와 인플레이션이 동시에 나타나는 스태그플레이션 충격이 된다. 중앙은행은 금리를 올리면 경기 수축이 심화되고, 동결하면 1970년대처럼 인플레이션 기대가 고정될 위험에 직면한다. 경제 영향 경로: 전쟁 불확실성이 기업 신뢰를 약화시켜 고용·설비투자를 미루게 하고, 이것이 소비 위축으로 이어질 수 있다. 유럽은 이미 여러 분기 위축 중이며 영국도 침체 직전이라고 평가했다. 단기 전망: 가자 지상전은 불가피하다는 것이 시장의 인식이며, 관건은 북부 충돌이 헤즈볼라·이란을 끌어들인 지역전쟁으로 확대되는지 여부다. 확률은 대략 기본 시나리오(분쟁 억제) 2/3 이상, 확대 시나리오 20~35% 수준으로 제시했으나 본인도 확률을 정확히 알 수 없다고 강조했다.
다듬은 글
It's extremely difficult to see where this ends and what it means for the global economy. Yes, it's hard and you have to think about scenarios. I would say the baseline scenario is one in which Israel occupies God's eye is going to get ugly, but the conflict remains a contained to there. And therefore the markets so far are essentially pricing this one as being the baseline.
That's why all prices have not gone very much because that is not the real threat to the supply of oil in the Gulf. There was a little bit of a risk of impacts on bond yields and on gold and so on. Even markets, equity markets have recovered because there are other economic issues like maybe the Fed's staying on hold rather than hiking again that are positive.
But of course there is a downside scenario in which as these are tried to destroy Hamas. Iran, that is a major backer of Hamas, decides to unleash Hezbollah in Lebanon and then a second front in Lebanon, maybe a third one in the West Bank. And at that point, Israel will have to attack Iran. If that were to be the case, of course, then the supply of oil from the Gulf gets disrupted.
And then because of a spike in oil prices and then the economic impact would be huge. I mean, in 73, we had the Yom Kippur War, in 79 with the Green Revolution. There was an oil shock that then led to speculation all over the world. It's not the baseline scenario, but there's a risk. But it's a risk.
I don't know the probability of that risk or whether we shouldn't even be talking about probabilities or are we talking 10%, 30%, or do we just not know The honest answer? We don't know. Different people may have different assessment. I would say that certainly the baseline probably will be at least a two thirds probability that the conflict remains contained to Gaza, whether that is, say, 20 or 30 or 35% probability of something escalating.
The honest answer is nobody knows exactly, but the market seems to be discounting the possibility of a massive conflict throughout the Middle East for now. But if oil goes to even 120 or 130, let's say, how problematic is that for central banks and the world economy? Well, it's problematic in two ways, because higher oil prices implies that most economies go into a slowdown of growth or a recession.
And then there is a rise in inflation is a stagflation re shock and then becomes a huge dilemma for central banks because either there's raise rates to try to fight that inflation and then you have a more severe economic contraction. Or if you decide that you care more about growth and then you don't raise rates, then you have the anchoring of inflation expectations like it happened in the seventies.
So whenever you have a negative supply shock, the stagflation then becomes a real dilemma for central banks and we don't know how they're going to be answering to this shock. It's also like there's there's just a global sadness, right? A lot of people are speaking out. I don't know whether this impacts funding.
I think that actually it impacts, first of all, business confidence, especially in Europe, where economic activity is effectively contracting, has been contracting for a number of quarters. I would say that if you are any business, there's an option value waiting. If you do decide how many more workers to hire or whether to do more CapEx.
And there's been a slowdown, for example, in employment growth in the eurozone so far, the economic contraction, the GDP production side has been more severe. So this could be actually a tipping point where firms decide, I have no idea whether this is going to spread or not. Let me wait and see. I'm not going to hide anymore.
I've got to stop some of the CapEx. And that could become self-fulfilling and implied that the eurozone is already borderline into recession. And same thing with the UK going into an actual recession. So even the private or something by that happening affects the uncertainty decisions of the business sector and maybe an off consumer.
Consumer may slow down consumption as well. Really, how critical are the next couple of days or weeks if we have boots on the ground in Gaza or from Israel? Could could this is this an escalation point that could actually happen quite quickly? Well, I think that most people expect that these are at this point, there's no choice but to go into Gaza and get rid of Hamas forever.
And they didn't do it in the past, is going to be painful, is going to be ugly. A strong escalation. Right. A real escalation. But I believe that the markets are really pricing in that he's a no choice but going into Gaza. And the question is going to be once they go into Gaza, whether then skirmishes that are occurring in the north become more severe weather, Hezbollah in Israel start a real war and therefore there'll be a hand of Iran that actually that happening and then the conflict will become regional as opposed to the immediate to Gaza.
Then the markets are pricing in that something ugly is going to happen in Gaza, unfortunately, and there's no other choice. So they're not to worry as much about that, but about whether there's going to be an escalation.
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