저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 지폐는 장기적으로 구매력이 0에 수렴하며, 통화 팽창이 정치적 해법으로 반복된다고 주장한다. 금 강세장은 아직 끝나지 않았다고 보며, 5,000달러 돌파 이후에도 4,000~3,000달러 조정 가능성을 열어두되 장기적으로 2만~3만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 말한다. 그 자신은 달러 자산을 많이 보유하고 있고, 매달 금을 사고 있다고 밝힌다. 월가는 자산가격 하락을 원하지 않고 연준의 통화 팽창을 선호한다고 비판한다.
다듬은 글
If you look at history, the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero. Always. The time may come where I would say I put all in precious metals. I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of the assets in gold and gold uh in precious metals. I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished.
I think it will continue. Now, can it uh you know, we went over $5,000 per oz. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes. But it can also go up to 20, 30,000. Marc Faber, a veteran macro investor known for his long-term perspective on monetary cycles, often reminds investors that throughout history, paper currencies have gradually lost purchasing power, while tangible assets such as gold have preserved value over time.
From this viewpoint, the current gold bull market may still have considerable room to run, despite periodic volatility. Prices have already pushed beyond the $5,000 level, but sharp corrections remain possible as part of a normal cycle, with scenarios where gold temporarily retraces toward the $4,000 or even $3,000 region before the longer trend resumes.
Over a broader horizon, however, the combination of rising global debt, currency debasement, and monetary expansion could drive far higher valuations. In such an environment, long-term projections reaching the $20,000 to $30,000 range are increasingly being discussed within macro circles. If you found this analysis helpful, make sure to hit that like button, share it with fellow investors who to gold and silver, and subscribe so you don't miss the next big update.
My preference is to own precious metals, but I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods, because you know, you go into department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something. And for that unit of account, paper money is suitable. But it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value, because the purchasing power of money, and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the '50s and '60s when I was growing up, and the prices I have to pay now.
Uh of course, paper money has lost purchasing power. On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills, and I rolled it over, or I put it all in gold, then the purchasing power was probably better maintained. Do you understand? With the accumulating interest. Yeah. Uh is so the calculations are not so easy.
Mhm. But uh in general, if you look at history, Mhm. the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero. Always. Because when problems arise in a social system that knows money, the solution to the problems uh the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default. But these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians will not choose them.
Because the principle concern of a ruler, a king or a lord or an emperor or a democracy is to stay in power, for the party to stay in power. So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems and they say to themselves, "Well, uh we'll solve that issue later." Mhm. But once you embark on money printing, and this I want to observe and really emphasize, once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008, you cannot stop it without significant pain.
Mhm. And this significant pain is avoided by printing more. Now, in the theory of economics, in the classical theory, it's shown that you need to print increasing quantity to keep the system going. Like as you know, the interest payments on the government debt has gone through the roof. And it will continue to go up.
And soon it could be the entire budget. And Yeah. at that time, what else do you want than print money? Someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years. And I buy every month some. And I also tell people that uh, they should own some precious metals. Because if they don't own it, they trust in central banks.
And look at the characters that sit in these central banks. Would you trust them? That the Definitely not. But but, um, I'm also holder of dollars because I have a financial business. And I buy and sell securities. And occasionally I have a liquidity uh, because of my views. And occasionally I have liquidity because I sold a position that we own and so forth.
Anyway, the bulk is still nowadays in US dollars. I have some portfolios which I value in euros. And I have some portfolios I value in Swiss francs. And the valuations will fluctuate a lot depending on the assets. And it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. I As I said, I have a very large exposure into precious metals.
But the time may come where I would say I put all in precious metals. I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of the assets in gold and gold uh, in precious metals. Marc Faber argues that while paper currencies remain useful as a medium of exchange, they have consistently failed as a long-term store of value.
From his perspective, the purchasing power of fiat money steadily erodes as governments respond to economic stress by expanding the money supply rather than allowing painful defaults or strict monetary discipline. Once large-scale money creation begins, he notes, political incentives make it extremely difficult to reverse, often requiring even greater levels of liquidity to sustain the system.
For this reason, he has spent decades advocating a meaningful allocation to precious metals as a form of monetary insurance, while still holding various currencies for liquidity and business activity. He views gold and silver as essential protection against the long-term decline of paper money. Let's get into the interview.
I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished. I think it will continue. Now, can it You know, we went over $5,000 per oz. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes. But, it can also go up to 20, 30,000. I think Kevin Walsh is not a money printer. I think he's basically a reasonable man. And I've listened to some of his speeches.
He has deep knowledge of economics. Unlike Bernanke and Yellen, she had no clue about She's clueless about anything. But, uh And Powell is a better I mean, I I've been critical of the Central Bank for the last 40 years. Whereby I always said, Greenspan is a highly intelligent man intellectually. He has his shortcomings, but as an intellect, he's brilliant.
He was a horrible forecaster and uh relatively poor economist as a economist in the in his profession, he had like no clients [clears throat] left when he closed his firm and became Fed Fed chairman. But he was suitable as Fed chairman because he suited You have to understand, Wall Street is very powerful.
The money in America is very powerful. Do you think that Wall Street likes to have declining asset prices? No. Their fees come from the size of the assets, not the quality of the assets, the size. And they will always wish that the Fed prints money. They will You will never find a Wall Street economist that really tells the public that the Fed is making a huge mistake, that they should tighten monetary policy and see asset prices drop 30% because then they would become affordable.
Why Why is the housing market not doing all that well in terms of sales volume? Because houses are too expensive. Nobody can afford them except the 1%. Yeah. Yeah. That's right. affordability is on the Trump. Of course, he talks the whole day about things he has no clue about. He said he would make everything affordable.
No, he's making more expensive. In my view, he will choose the lesser of evils. You also have to understand, Walsch comes from a moneyed family, not himself, but his father-in-law. And his wife will be the heir of Estee Lauder, correct? I believe so, yeah. And they are billionaires and their friends are billionaires.
And believe me, the stock market is now down. Do you think the wealthy donors of Trump are all calling in up and say, "Oh, you're doing great in Iran"? No, most people have no interest at all to go to war in Iran. Yeah, that that the US has nothing to fear of Iran. Now, did they go in to protect Israel?
Yeah, maybe. Or maybe Israel blackmailed Trump and so forth. I don't know. But, for sure, the US had nothing to fear from Israel that from Iran. Nothing. [clears throat] And most rich people in America, that I can tell you, when they see their portfolios down 10% in the months of March, they're not going to be very happy.
Marc Faber maintains that the broader gold bull market remains intact despite periods of volatility. While prices have already surpassed the $5,000 level, he believes corrections toward $4,000 or even $3,000 are possible within a larger upward trend. Over the longer horizon, however, the combination of persistent monetary expansion, rising government debt, and political incentives to support asset markets could ultimately drive gold to much higher valuations with projections occasionally reaching the $20,000 to $30,000 range.
He also notes that financial markets operate within a system where powerful institutional interests favor rising asset prices as wealth and financial sector revenues are closely tied to expanding valuations. In that environment, policies that support liquidity and avoid severe market declines often take priority, reinforcing the long-term appeal of precious metals as a hedge against ongoing currency debasement.
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