저자: AshishKumarPandey · 외국인
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피터 린치의 투자 조언(시장 타이밍 무익, 하락 감내, 수익·이익 중시, 장기 보유)을 소개하며, 주가 단기 등락보다 기업 이익과 주식희석 여부를 봐야 한다고 강조. 특정 자산 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
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video we'll talk about what Peter Lynch the famous mutual fund manager has to say about investing how he dealt with uh picking up stocks and how he saw the investing word markets Etc in his times and what we as investors can learn from him so agenda is very simple first I'll introduce him and then uh I've mentioned some comments uh or his quotes from his books from his articles from his interviews uh and and uh with that I have added my commentary in this video to explain you better in uh today's context so here it's about it's about him uh he started uh managing megalin fund at the age of 33 uh and Managed IT for 13 years generating more than twice the return given by market S&P 500 30% cagr and after the end of his career he wrote his uh book books one of on Wall Street and beating the street there's one more called Learn to Earn uh I read these books when I was just starting in the investment world and learned a great deal from them uh nowaday also I'm repeating or rereading uh these books both of them one up on Wall Street and beating the street I'll uh encourage you in fact recommend you that you must read these books uh if even if you're starting in the investing world or you are you think that you have spent some time and learned Basics still uh these books will do good for you as an investor now here are the tips as I said these are quotes by him either In Articles books or in the conferences or interviews he has U Been part of so first pertains to timing in the market he as for him see the summary is that timing the market is futile if if timing the market could rate substantial returns then you would have seen the best the richest people on top of for's list as Market timers which they are not best known investor called Warren Buffett who has made amased a huge wealth from stock market only is not a market timer and you all know that he never time the market second Point uh tells about uh people who are scared to go uh either enter into the market or think that Market has reached alltime High it can't go higher it can go only down uh and and if I put money right now my money will go down etc etc uh he says that in case you are scared of declines uh you'll miss the next rally so don't I you must have a stomach for it uh your portfolio will go down uh you shouldn't worry about it but in case you can't handle the volatility Warren Buffett also said that in case you can't see your portfolio going down by 4050 % you shouldn't be in stocks or Equity mutual funds they will go down nobody can deny that I mean from since the start of say after covid we uh we have seen only up and up and up and everybody saying that markets have reached alltime high and nobody has seen the declines it will go down and when it goes down you don't have to lose your mind don't lose your head just keep on investing finding out the opportunities where you can invest and uh keep on doing the same thing uh which you have been doing just stay invested as per Peter Lynch now again uh regarding Market timing he has given the data and this I think I indirectly referred in the video I made for timing the market versus time in the market he says that uh if you somehow Miss 40 ke mons in the past 40 years your annual return uh goes down from say 11.4 to 2.7% so and and nobody could tell you that these are the 40 key months so again he through this quote he's uh referring to the futility of time in the market he emphasizes that time in the market he says that again that suppose you started uh investing in 1965 and you kept investing till 1995 for 30 years suppose you in one case in one scenario you picked the stocks on the best days of the market and in another scenario you picked the stock or made the invested in the during the worst days in the market at the end of 30 years uh your difference in the returns will be 1.1% only so this timing business that not this time is right time is not right I should wait I should immediately deploy is is is futile it's like the last sentence says this timing business is much ad about very little it doesn't add value don't pay attention to it now again the second comment he made in a conference in 1993 he uh he mentioned about what has happened in 1900 so as for him uh Market has seen 53 Corrections of 10 at least 10% in the last nine uh tickets 90 90 years and 15 of those Corrections were of 25% or more so roughly one every 6 months every 6 years you'll get a correction of more than 25% and these are the setbacks or say uh portfolio going down by more than 25% is normal is normal uh it it comes with the territory the terrain is like that you if you are in the equity markets or mutual funds your portfolio will go down you shouldn't be scared of that in fact you should prepare and as I mentioned in my last video keep some cash handy in case Market goes down and uh you see the opportunities deploy that excess cash with you it will give you or it will add up to your returns in a very substantial way so don't be scared of Market going down it will happen nobody can deny it nobody is untouched even Warren profit portfolios have gone down many times so don't get scared of them and choose the Investments wisely and use that opportunity now he has again in the last quote he has mentioned or given a scenario that suppose we are in Long recession and earnings go up by 4% a year and then companies choose to give 2.5% uh dividend so total returns are 6.5% assuming it won't happen hasn't happened but assume that still you'll get 6.5% return on your Equity Investments which is much better than or not better not much better but still better than 6% which is provided by the corporate bonds uh this is uh is said in the American Market context so you you should focus on earnings if you believe that the company you're are investing or the company directly or companies are investing via your mutual fund the earnings are going to go up you shouldn't worry about the small shortterm ups and downs in the stock prices in fact Focus his focus is you should worry only about the earnings are the earnings going go up on or down now my uh thought is that along with earnings you should pay attention that not too much of equity dilution is happening uh if you see the yes bank's case yes Bank uh it has got the valuation right now which is same as the valuation it was getting at the time of Rana Kapoor Mr R kapor uh before he went to jail so valuation has come up earnings have come up but during these three four or five years they have diluted too much of equity a lot of new share shareholders have come up which have put money in uh yesbank as company and because of that uh though the market capitalization is same valuation is same because of too many uh issuance of shares that means Equity dation has happened and people who had invested at the at the levels of 230 or 140 still uh to see the stock price coming up in three digits right now it's hovering at I think 22 to 24 rupees per share so they yet to get their money back so as investors you should pay attention to earnings earnings earnings but keep in mind that earning uh should come not at too much cost of the equity dilation that you have to take care uh here are the last quote remember things are never clear until it's too late I mean yesterday only U he sent a proposal to an who declined it saying that he will wait for the outcome what Iran does to Israel in coming days and after things get clear he will take action so I and this quote is dedicated to him uh you won't get any clear thing there will be uncertainty in the markets something or the other will come up today is Israel or Iran tomorrow it can be anything India and Bangladesh India and Pakistan who knows uh can be anything so don't don't worry about that if you think that corporate earnings are going to go up without too much of dilution everything's working IND India's favor not too much U effect will be there of all these ongoings in the world you should invest uh now the first picture on the left top uh again it says that uh people who keep on waiting for Corrections uh they in long term they lose money and they don't just don't realize it I that's what he's saying essentially is that more money is lost in preparing Corrections or anticipating corrections but than what is lost in actual Corrections so don't worry about the corrections if you have patience if you have done your homework if you're investing bya saes if you have cash handy whenever Market uh you see at appropriate levels or or if you see going by sip you keep on investing don't worry about this noise I would say that's what essentially he's saying uh second uh bottom on the left uh talks about the economic analysis uh today I was talking with a friend who was asking my opinion about RBI keeping the repo rate same I said I don't have any view I don't care about care about it because uh first of all we don't have any control on it RBI Governor is not going to listen to you fed Governor is not going to listen to you that what should be the interest rate they'll do as for their wish so you should find companies or mutual funds or find fund managers who are buying companies irrespective of what fed is doing what RBI is doing or what government is doing they should buy companies or you should buy invest in mutual funds which has companies which will do good irrespective of who is at Center who is in the government who is in the FED who is in the RBI that's what essentially uh Mr Peter Lynch is saying uh and lastly I've seen people because of too much of trading and short-term games gains Focus uh lot of people expect that you know if I invest today I should how much money I'll be or how much return I'll be getting in say four weeks or 10 weeks or even two weeks my suggestion to them is to look at the comment quote on the right side uh he says that my best uh stocks have been uh given me return have given return in third fourth or fifth year or maybe later so a fund manager when he selects companies he typically select companies which are going to give him returns based on some hypothesis that this compan is expanding so it will capture Market here or maybe coming up with a new product it is increasing capacity or maybe reducing debt doing this doing that maybe increasing efficiencies or hiring correct set of people launching a new business division maybe automating a manual line of business so these things I mean take time to come to fru and again even if they have come to fuan Market takes time to realize that no the nature of the company has changed and reating has to happen for for a particular stock things take time in nutshell things take time time so don't worry about what what the your stock or mutual fund nav is doing in short term if you believe in fund manager discuss with your adviser if you believe in fund manager if you believe the management of the companies you have invested in uh give them time uh eventually it will reflect in stock prices uh that brings us to the end of this video uh as always if you want to discuss anything more on that I have read a lot of books by famous investors like Benjamin Graham Warren buett Peter Lynch of course uh uh monish babai and others in case you want to discuss more you can WhatsApp me on 88892 3849 you can call me on 96 35268 and you can email me on Ashish ku. online thank you happy
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