저자: 미상 · 외국인
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배리의 2005년 CDS 베팅 사례를 들어 그의 과거 적중을 강조하며, 현재도 같은 패턴이 반복되고 있다고 주장한다. 2008년 금융위기 때 배리가 주택담보대출 증권의 위험을 미리 알아챈 점, 2005년 CDS 베팅으로 큰 수익을 낸 점을 설명한다. 최근 배리는 인플레이션 우려를 제기해 왔으며, 2022년 인플레이션율은 8.6%로 연준 목표치를 크게 웃돈다고 짚는다. 배리는 S&P500이 현재 수준에서 추가로 약 50% 하락할 수 있다고 보며, 과거 저점 패턴(이전 저점보다 10~15% 낮은 저점)을 근거로 1862포인트 수준을 제시한다. 최근 며칠간 시장이 6.5% 반등했지만 단기 반등이 하락 추세의 끝을 의미하지 않는다고 배리는 본다. 거래량 분석: 2022년 하락장 거래량이 2002·2009년보다 적어, 본격적인 매도는 아직 시작되지 않았다고 배리는 주장한다. 배리는 10년 S&P500 상승 차트를 닷컴버블·대공황 직전과 비교하며, 인간 행동의 반복 패턴을 근거로 든다. 거시 측면: 금리 인상으로 소비자 부채 상환 부담이 커지고, 저축률이 2008년 수준으로 떨어지면서 소비 둔화와 기업 실적 악화가 이어질 수 있다고 본다. 아마존 1분기 매출 성장률 둔화(7%, 2001년 이후 최저 수준)를 소비 약화의 사례로 인용하며, 배리는 이를 미국 GDP 약화 신호로 해석한다. 결론적으로 배리는 인플레이션·금리 인상·저축 감소·소비 둔화 → 기업 수익성 악화의 연쇄를 우려하며, 현재는 하락장의 초기 단계에 불과하다고 본다. 영상 진행자는 배리의 분석이 매우 비관적이라고 평가하면서도, 그가 놓친 부분이 있을 수 있다고 열어 두며 시청자 의견을 묻는다.
다듬은 글
on May 19 2005 Michael burry bought his first credit default swaps in anticipation of the housing crisis credit default swaps from douchebank 10 million each on six different bonds his prediction was the U.S mortgage-backed security once a stable respectable investment product had slowly turned into a dangerous and deceptive Time Bomb this bet was no gamble he did the digging he read the documents he knew this would take the rest of the world another two years to even start looking into and it took until the 11th of October 2007 for the S P 500 to top out at 1 576 points later on the 10th of March 2009 the s p closed at just 676 points a 57 crash Michael burry ended up making a personal profit of a hundred million dollars and made his investors over 700 million from this single bet in the Years leading up to this amazing success he received constant criticism from the investing world and even his own investors that ultimately led him to close his fund so this happened 15 years ago and the reason we're telling you this is that history is currently repeating itself the first one to see that there was something seriously amiss in the mortgage Market was Dr Michael burry it was back in February of last year that Michael burry first warned of high inflation as a consequence of the fed's unprecedented money printing he was tweeting to prepare for inflation hashtagging Doom to repeat and called out the U.S government and the Federal Reserve over the trillions of dollars worth of stimulus they'd done at this point the Fed was printing money yes but inflation was staying low at the time the latest published data showed an annual inflation rate of just 1.7 that's lower than the fed's target but bury knew that as always we're now run running at a red hot inflation rate of 8.6 interestingly in the past month or so Michael burry hasn't just been doing Victory laps instead he's been tweeting quite extensively explaining why he believes this economic crisis and subsequent Market downturn has only just begun and the worst is yet to come he also thinks the S P 500 could lose another 50 from where it sits today we've seen over the past 25 years the bottom of a current market crash which is usually lower than the one that came before it by about 10 to 15.
adding that 15 below the S P 500 low that we saw in 2020 takes us down to 1862 points that's crazy because it shows that Michael burry's anticipating a peak to trough fall of 61.4 which would bring us back down to the historical normal Schiller P of roughly 16. essentially from where we are today Michael burry anticipates a further 50 plus percent drop off in the stock market it's a bold prediction and it's a prediction that was once again met with criticism as over the past few weeks we saw the market bound six and a half percent however as we've seen even just across the past few days short-term balances certainly don't mean we're out of the woods Michael burry recently tweeted that even during the worst times statistics show that it's actually quite common to see strong short-term recoveries among the longer term downward Trend Marie certainly seems confident that we're simply in the early stages of a much bigger problem and to further his point he also took the time to comment on the comparatively low trading volumes we've seen during the 2022 downturn he said top to bottom Microsoft traded 5.2 times shares outstanding by 2002 3.3 times by 2009 and 0.5 times so far Amazon traded 5.7 Times by 2002 6.6 Times by 2009 and 0.9 times so far JP Morgan traded three times by 2002 5.9 Times by 2009 and about 0.7 times so far Etc so when you look at the trading volumes even though we've seen the market cool down you know quite a bit in 2022 and everyone seems bearish from what you hear of the selling really hasn't even started so in buri's opinion we're likely going to see a lot more selling volume coming over the next few years which would lead to much larger declines in the stock market and it's a scenario that he said he's not looking forward to the interesting thing to remember with Michael burry is he's seen this happen all before the first time through the.com bubble the second time in 2008 he's seen these repetitive patterns of human behavior time and time again he studied the greed and the excess of the major booms and busts and that's what gives him such confidence when he talks and tweets about these issues he recently posted a chart to his Twitter which was quite eye-opening in that chart is the 10-year S P 500 run up to today the run up to the.com bubble and the run-up before the Great Depression it's pretty scary how similar they are and Michael burry comments on this saying third time's a charm you gotta love human nature nothing if not consistent you see for him he's seen this pattern of human behavior many times before and he understands where it leads it was only 12 months back that he was tweeting that he saw the greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude perhaps now in his eyes it's been pushed to its breaking point but of course this is all just the stock market we have to remember the core reasoning behind Murray's point of view is of course the economy now we already know Marie's thoughts on inflation and yes we are seeing the FED raise interest rates to make borrowing harder for businesses but we have to remember that interest rate Rises also affect the fundamental building blocks of the economy unfortunately consumers have less money to spend because more of their savings and income go to servicing their debts this very frequently starts a negative spiral because less discretionary spending means less sales for the companies that we're investing in so ideally you want the consumer to be raking it in however recently burrie's been hinting the consumers aren't doing too well right now personal savings fell to 2013 levels the savings rate to 2008 levels while revolving credit card debt grew at a record-setting pace back to pre-covered Peak despite all those trillions of cash drops in their lap looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble so Barry's quite clearly worried about the depletion of savings not just because it's pushing Everyday People to use more credit card cards in an environment of rising interest rates but also because lowering of savings equals less spending which hosts the bottom line of these businesses that we're invested in one anecdotal piece of evidence that bury referred to recently was Amazon's q1 results as CNBC wrote Revenue at Amazon increased seven during the first quarter compared with 44 expansion in the year ago period it marks the slowest rate for any quarter since the.com bust in 2001 and the second straight period of single-digit growth bury responded by saying so Amazon says to GDP there's your weakening consumer the savings are covering less and less of America's GDP at a point where America's GDP is shrinking so overall in Barry's eyes we have inflation interest rate hikes reduction in consumer savings thus less discretionary spending which ultimately leads to lower profitability of businesses we've seen thus far re-ratings on their stock and in breweries view we're only in the first inning it's a very interesting topic to explore Michael Murray's thoughts are extremely bearish but do you think he's maybe missing a mark let us know about your view on Michael burry's analysis in the comments section thanks for watching foreign
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