저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2021년 11월 시점 인플레이션 우려와 자산 과열 속에서도 발행자는 암호화폐 장기 가능성(솔라나 등 개발자 생태계 중심)을 강조하며, 억만장자 매도(머스크·베이조스)를 근거로 개인이 스스로 판단해야 한다고 주장. [시장 상황 진단] 주식시장·암호화폐·미술품 시장이 모두 사상 최고치 부근이라고 진단. 미국 인플레이션은 30년래 최고, 10년물 BEI(기대인플레이션)는 25년래 최고 수준이라고 언급. [정책 배경] 약 1조 달러 규모 부양책이 승인되었고 추가 1.8조 달러 규모 부양책도 협상 중이라고 언급. [억만장자 매도 근거] 머스크와 베이조스가 올해 합산 110억 달러 이상 보유 주식을 매도했다고 언급하며, 이를 리스크 관리 관점에서 해석. [암호화폐 전망] 비트코인은 '금', 이더리움은 '은'으로 흘러가는 추세로 보고, 솔라나를 포함한 개발자 생태계 프로젝트가 승자가 될 것이라 주장. [프로젝트 평가 방법] 개발자 관심도와 측정 가능한 경제적 가치(헬륨, 렌더 등 대체 비용 기준)를 기준으로 프로젝트를 평가해야 한다고 제시. [노동·물가] 저임금 노동 시장 임금 상승과 공급 측 비용(비료, 목재, 칩 가격) 상승으로 인플레이션 구조가 지속될 것이라 주장. [출연자 전망] 발행자는 특정 자산을 직접 사고팔겠다고 명시하지 않았으며, 구체적 가격 목표나 기간 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
I really don't like this culture that's emerged via twitter mostly where you all of a sudden have to be this maximalist that basically falls on their sword and never sells in order to be legitimate and i think that that's a really dangerous place to be so you know look if i take a watch well if i take a much much bigger step back let me put solana in the context of crypto and let me put crypto in the context of the markets and where we are today at the end of the week after you know uh q3 earnings uh in november of 2021 we have the stock market at absolute all-time highs ripping we have crypto at absolute all-time highs ripping we have the art markets i don't know if you guys saw phillips and christie's and sotheby's this past week at absolute all-time highs sold another people for 25 million we have inflation at a 30-year high we have 10-year break evens at a 25-year high we have you know one point somewhat trillion dollars that we just approved last week and we're still horse trading on another three you know 1.8 trillion dollars of stimulus that we're going to put in and so when you and then you have i and i think the the most important thing which is the two most important founders of our generation the two smartest people who have really consistently won elon musk and jeff bezos have collectively sold more than 11 billion of their holdings this year alone and if you can't take all of that and decide for yourself what's right for you and your family you're doing yourself a disservice i think it's important for me to never sort of like you know be forced to tell folks whether i'm buying or selling although i'm willing to do it in moments where i think it's important but i think it's really important to understand the context and so i think like these folks that like think derisively about individuals who are managing risk i think it's really naive and i think it's um it creates a lot of missed opportunity for them as well if the smartest people in the world are now selling their core holdings that they told you they would never sell and you are not reconsidering your position on things you're either much smarter than them or you're being really really reckless oh but what's so funny is half the people on twitter spend all their time in crypto lens saying things like never going to make it have fun staying poor they're extremely jason as you said tribal i'm not sure that they're doing first principles analysis of these things they've gone they've got exceptionally lucky yeah some of them are exceptionally good but many people broadly speaking have gotten exceptionally lucky and i think a little bit of it is getting to their head where they become you know very virulent against people that they think you know whose perspectives may actually be negatively affecting their position without actually understanding what david said which is these are incredibly deep liquid markets and one person's opinion is can't do much of anything a lot of the stuff that we've done deso is purely driven by developer interest when we see developers in the open source ecosystem building things on top of the stuff making stuff that's composable and usable by other people and building infrastructure you know we don't really second-guess that because they are spending their the most important currency which is not monetary capital but human capital yeah and there's the time and their skill and their application for another project yeah and so when enough developers so i i've always thought you just followed the developers and as more and more projects get started you just have to unemotionally support that i think the writing is on the wall which is bitcoin is gold ethereum looks like it's trending to be silver and solana could be the first but there will be others that come after it of real developer ecosystems that can be built on top of it the other the other thing that i would offer up to people for them to think about is before you blindly go and rush into crypto one way in which i try to think about these things is in the following way you see these projects get started all the time and i would view each of these projects as a mini economy and really try to think what is the economic value of what's happening under the hood so simple example you know helium is an interesting project that's trying to build a completely decentralized you know 5g infrastructure right render is a really interesting project that's trying to build a completely decentralized you know graphical processing infrastructure right gpus essentially in both of those things you can quantifiably economically measure what the value is that people get right in the case of render you're basically displacing an aws instance and so um that has a price and a value and so you know for render to be valuable there's an economic value that it replaces if you're joining a hotspot that has an economic value where you hadn't necessarily have to pay you know to get internet connectivity if you all of a sudden you're on the helium network that displaces a measurable economic quantum understanding that is probably and taking the absolute value of that is the best way of really understanding which projects have potential so if you take those two ideas and marry them together where is their developer interest and where is their measurable economic activity at the intersection of those i think are the really compelling projects that can win and the reason i think it's persistent is that there's a the all of these things are intertwined and so you know if you want to just bear with me for a second like when when this let's just go to the the entry-level economic job right so you're a barista at starbucks or you work at mcdonald's and you're making 17 to 20 dollars an hour what that does is it shifts labor and eventually there are other people that are entering the workforce or you know may shift jobs and essentially it just causes this leaky bucket effect where everybody else has to then accommodate itself so you know you have a guy like uh you know uh you have a company like amazon which is now going to pay 25 or 30 dollars to keep folks right because otherwise they may say oh you know if i make 15 or 16 an hour i'd rather work at mcdonald's it's simple to college it's not back breaking work blah blah blah so then they start to um increase the amount that they pay they increase their benefits and the like i saw this thing this week there's a crazy thing that's happening though which is it's now pulling people from non-traditional job classes into those jobs there are teachers that are leaving teaching to go to work at an amazon warehouse there are firefighters that are quitting being a firefighter to go work at an amazon warehouse because you make the same or more plus you have all of these other benefits and the job is structurally a lot easier and so people are making different optimizations and to that point i think we talked about this and nick you can put it in the group chat in reddit as an example there is more engagement in the subreddit around having a simple work life than there is now in wall street bets right so there's been a structural cultural change where people need to get paid more to do the same amount of work and then at the same time you have all of the all of the supply side getting more expensive fertilizer makes corn more expensive lumber makes house prices more expensive chip prices makes the iphone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged you know yesterday poker sonny was showing us he bought a tesla and the delivery period was 11 months october of 2022.
yeah it's great it's freaking crazy so i i think that it's a it's this is the beginning of a persistence i think in 1980 we changed the goal posts for cpi so even as a measurement to know what we look at and i think jack dorsey tweeted this out so nick you may be able to find this tweet but you know we changed the measurement of how cpi measures and so if you go back to the original Measurement uh it looks like inflation in cpi is uh much more pernicious than we would otherwise think it if we just look at the the new cpi that we that we started to look at as of 1980 so um that's another sort of like point we did this we did the same thing with i just go back to what i said earlier had given up looking two smartest people that we both know are net sellers well they're selling some yeah i mean they're not selling i'm just saying the two smartest people we know
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