저자: TomLee · 외국인
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연말 S&P500 6,300 상승 전망. 근거: 12월 계절성(선거해 12월 강세), 10년물 금리 4.1%로 하락해 밸류에이션 확장 우호적, 심리지표 악화는 역발상 강세 신호, 트럼프 풋·연준 풋 존재. 트럼프 행정부는 친기업 성향으로 관세도 협상 도구로 본다. 정부지출 축소는 민간 재투자로 GDP·이익에 긍정적. 비트코인 10만달러 돌파 및 연말 상승 전망(공급 부족 근거). 2025년 셋업 우호적, 향후 12개월 큰 걱정 불필요, 경기민감주·소형주 선호. 엔비디아는 전문 진행 중 발언 일부 확인 어려움.
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our next guest sees the S&P uh rallying to 6,300 by year end but says we could be entering uh what he's calling a zone of hesitation in the next couple of weeks joining us now Tom Lee fun Strat Capital Chief investment officer and the CNBC uh contributor it's good to see you Tom I want to talk to you about the the bonds 10 year at some point but you see four reasons why you still expect uh the S&P to continue to Rally in December and May you to 6,300 by year end what what are the four reasons well one is seasonality um December historically is a strong month but when you're up more than 10% in the first half and it's an election year December's been up 100% of the time the second is yields have moved down to pre to pre-election levels you know the 10 years at 4.1 that's good for multiple expansion the third is I think it's been surprising but sentiment actually turned negative the last weeks even as the markets rallied to me that's a contrarian bullish signal and then finally we still have those two puts the Trump put and the fed put and I think that means you you still want to buy any of these dips what can Trump do to make sure the market keeps going up well I think we've seen it with uh how he's made cabinet uh proposals or nominations that he's very Pro business and I think as as many have said Trump is very focused on the stock market so I think communication is still a strategy and it's a reminder that animal spirits could come back um I don't know if you watch the way the financial say this tactfully I don't know if you watch the way the financial media industry covers tariffs I mean um how can you call him Pro business according to these people when he's Pro tariffs because you would just think you know if you watch the coverage of tariffs yeah I I mean to me it's a reminder that it's good to carry a big stick and I think tariffs have proven to be a good negotiating tool I think we've seen some proactive actions by other countries and in general I I don't think the new White House wants to pursue any policies that would hurt corporate profits so I think ultimately whatever is accomplished is going to be Pro business all right I hope everybody's listening um at least that's one one man's opinion um whenever we talk about um like the 10year it's always a well it be good this way but it would be bad this way if if it is falling which is good for multiple expanding why isn't that indicating that maybe the economy isn't as strong as we thought and that maybe corporate profits won't hold up there and uh multiple expansion on one hand but sometimes that's combined with with a slowing in in profit growth um it is a Poss possibility and it's always hard to tell what the bond market is telling us but when I look at the next 6 to 12 months and we know the FED wants to reduce the cost of capital for homeowners in mortgages and for small business owners having the tenure stay at these levels or even fall is actually an easing of financial condition so to me that's a good sign in the electrifying and ever evolving world of stock markets where numbers dance and fortunes seemingly change with the tick of a clock comes a piece of exhilarating news that has investors buzzing with excitement an announcement from one of the industry's foremost Titans Nvidia has rekindled the Flames of interest and speculation among Market enthusiasts known globally for its Powerhouse performance and dominance in the artificial intelligence chip Market nvidia's recent strategic moves have captivated the financial landscape and why shouldn't they the buzz around a potential stock split is akin to infusing a sudden splash of color into an otherwise monochromatic photograph such Financial Maneuvers are often seen as pivotal turning points sparking renewed interest but what exactly has Nvidia orchestrated to light up the stock market fervor once again let's delve deeper to uncover the Intriguing developments surrounding this Tech Giant welcome back everyone to invest ocy do you think that trying to this this uh Elon Musk the V ramas Swami thing do you think it's a that that they can make real progress and and be would that be positive for economic growth or would it be a negative for economic growth because it's it you know you laying people off uh you're spending less um well I think it's great that someone is scrutinizing these Bernie Sanders said it was great yes that's right and you know these are that's not good go ahead sorry well I mean these are huge budget items and so I'd love to see someone really identify where there could be waste and is that bad for the economy I think for in general most people view government spending as the least efficient Capital so if you reduce government spending and it's been crowding out private sector spending I'd rather see the private sector reinvest that capital I think that would overall be very like it's a a zero sum game um I mean a lot of people would take any spending they can get you know whether it's government or otherwise for for an economy for juicing the economy yeah I'm I you think it would go into private if it's not spent by the government yes that's right I think that would free up money because this is you know money the capital that the government spends is competing with private sector money I'd rather see the private sector invest this money at a higher rate of return so I think overall it' be positive for GDP and profits and for equities do you want to uh we always get a Bitcoin comment from you before we we let you go normally it got stuck uh under a 100 that's that's a pretty it's a psychological level I would imagine yeah I think some of this could be there's a lot of folks who don't want Bitcoin over 100,000 and and some of it may be the exchanges themselves are concerned because there is a pretty low supply of Bitcoin available over the counter so you have a supply shortage and if Bitcoin makes a move above 100,000 I think there'd be a big chase so I'm still confident bitcoin's going to close is much higher before year end before year end before year end yeah so break $100,000 before the end of the year yeah well above 100,000 before year end it's just a matter of time it's December 2nd it's not that long Tom so it's going to do it in the next four Tom makes Bold short I know nut you're nuts and they all come usually they come true um you a roll all right the stock market can often feel like an unpredictable roller coaster ride rif with ups and downs twists and turns however amidst this turbulent Journey one company that has experienced an exhilarating upward trajectory is none other than Nvidia since its Inception Nvidia has become synonymous with Innovation and record-breaking Financial accomplishments dominating the AI chip Market with unmatched prowess its financial performance speaks volumes with earnings that have soared to unprecedented Heights driven by an insatiable demand from AI customers across the globe in the latest quarter Nvidia remarkably reported revenues exceeding $35 billion firmly positioning itself as not just a Vanguard in technology but also as a leader in profitability observing nvidia's Financial reports is akin to viewing a cheat sheet from a game of Monopoly filled with Stacks upon stacks of phenomenal wealth is there much left to impress investors heading into next year here to take on that question Tom Lee of fun Strat he joins me at post n also a CNBC contributor Tom good to see you thanks for coming in yeah great to see mik um so we can stack up all the positives I mean I know you've been kind of in gear with that uh idea that the economy would power through inflation would come down the FED could become friendly or earnings are going higher big question to me is how do we set expect for the year to come given that that's all in the books um it's a great question because you know we have two back to back 20% years and now investors are wondering how much good news is baked in but if we look at the 2025 environment it's a great setup because we have a new Administration coming in that's maybe Pro Animal Spirits you know a trump put we have a doish fed and as you're pointing out interest rates are kind of calming down after rising guidelines and I think sentiments coming back into check you mentioned that before with the a a num so I think it's a good setup for investors I wouldn't be too worried about the next 12 months so don't be too worried I mean it seems as if they're all these supportive factors and when you mentioned the 220% uh up years in a row history says actually you know the following year is up more often than not as well what what do you mean do you think specifically by the new Administration being pro-animal Spirits first of all it's true you kind of seen it at work um it seems to pull in that direction but is there are there specifics that the market is fixated on that it's going to drive that Dynamic uh yes I think that the Market's trying to figure out exactly how this animal spirits plays out in markets but I would say we've got a treasury secretary that Equity markets approve of we we do know that the the last Trump presidency was cared very much about what stock prices do and Jeremy seagull said this is the most stock market focused president ever and I think that the uncertainty is around trade and the potential risks around tariffs but we'll have to see I mean that's something markets are going to have to like deal with it from an uncertainty perspective Beyond nvidia's Stellar financial performance what has truly captivated investor attention is its strategic adeptness in navigating the complex intricacies of stock splits Nvidia is no stranger to this sophisticated Financial tactic the company adeptly maneuvered a significant 10 for one stock split earlier this year a strategic move that effectively lowered its stock price from a daunting $1,200 to a more accessible $120 per share this strategic maneuver not only democratized investor access but also reaffirmed the unwavering confidence investors hold in nvidia's future trajectory historically Nvidia has embraced stock splits as a means to bolster access to its shares effectively rolling out the red carpet to a broader audience of investors this strategic approach seamlessly coupled with their groundbreaking technology iCal Innovations has fortified nvidia's position at the Forefront of the competitive Tech Market however despite its historical willingness to split shares multiple times before with notable stock splits in 20002 2001 followed by another round in 2006 and 2007 the current market sentiment does not necessarily indicate an imminent stock split currently with its share price hovering around $138 the psychological barriers that investors previously faced are no longer as daunting as the $1,000 Mark that once stood tall the chip giant renowned for consistently pushing technological boundaries with its Visionary AI Innovations appears to be on an organic upward trajectory that doesn't necessitate another stock split to validate its intrinsic value while some market speculators May remain intrigued about the possibility of a split on the horizon the prevailing consensus is characterized by wholesome optimism towards nvidia's new Innovations particularly the highly anticipated Blackwell architecture and forthcoming chip set poised to make a significant Market debut so's interesting to me that you know the way the market has behaved in the last several weeks but even going into the election was we need to owe more cycal we need to owe more financial stocks we're going to reprice this market for or a maybe a growth acceleration even or at least uh maintaining above Trend growth meanwhile though we're only a couple months removed from a pretty big growth scare job growth has kind of slowed to a point the housing market seems pretty locked up it's kind of interesting how the sentiment has kind of jumped ahead is the economic numbers position to actually validate that view markets tend to be forward looking so I would expect this I know there has been a recession in durable goods and in how in Auto Sales principally because of high rates which have made affordability an issue that's really on the come next year I mean I think the spread of ten years and mortgages should come down and the tenure hopefully behaves and I think if if there's more confidence and more Supply I think housing actually could lead this recovery I I think that's why home builders actually started to act better this week as well yes uh they seem very sensitive too to the yields you know sort of halting their rise as well I guess the question is if we believe it's still a supportive environment and pretty much all the things you can identify would suggest you shouldn't be too worried about next year the second question is is something like the S&P 500 the best vehicle to capitalize on that um I think investors are still trying to figure this out we did a survey with our institutional investors and and our ra clients last week the majority of institutional investors don't think Fang is the leading trade they're actually betting on cyclicals but if you look at the raia world uh the majority are betting on Fang so I think the market is still undecided whether to be long the mag 7 or the cyclicals I'm inclined to be more cyclical and bet even on small caps having a a very big year next year so as we reflect upon nvidia's Incredible Journey one might Ponder whether envidia truly represents the stock market's golden ticket in a landscape characterized by Dynamic change and fierce competition given its Unstoppable momentum and Stellar track record Nvidia undoubtedly emerges as a strong contender the company has showcased remarkable resilience and inventiveness articulating a compelling narrative woven through both groundbreaking Innovation and strategic stock splits while the current share price might not immediately trigger another split it undoubtedly highlights an attractive point of entry for Discerning investors who recognize the intrinsic value embedded in nvidia's pioneering AI developments as we deliberate the prospects of adding Nvidia to our investment portfolios it becomes abundantly clear that the Allure lies not merely in embracing its current remarkable success but in embodying a steadfast belief in its future Marvels poised to redefine technological Frontier
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