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We are on the threshold of the year 2026 and the global financial landscape is undergoing an unprecedented structural metamorphosis . This is marked by the convergence of a sovereign budgetary crisis, primarily a crisis of states, by a technological revolution led by artificial intelligence, and by the fact that there is an institutional legitimation taking place at the level of digital assets.
We're going to talk about all of that in this video. Don't forget to give me a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel. Just a reminder that you can support me by going to patreon.com/makertronque. You'll be able to get my videos in advance, right? And no, not early, sorry, you 'll be able to get my videos, sorry, I was already thinking about the rest of the video.
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Just so you know , I'm not a financial advisor. So everything you see in this video is not advice, it is not financial advice. I'm definitely having a hard time today. So, the person you see here is Katywood and you'll see that she has a vision that is really very interesting. Um, and she predicts an imminent Bitcoin explosion.
So, she does it in an article which is here. So, she throws a lot of figures at you, but I dug a little deeper into the subject because she announces figures that may seem a little crazy. He said, for example, that uh, you see the total market cap, the total financialization of Bitcoin could reach 16 trillion dollars, uh, and including cryptocurrencies and other cryptocurrencies, we could reach up to 30 trillion dollars.
So, these are figures that may seem a little fanciful, but in the end you'll see that if we dig a little deeper, they're not at all. And uh, and it's actually very credible in the end that Bitcoin will reach $800,000, between $800,000 and $1.5 million, right, according to what she says. Well, that depends on the different projections that may exist, right?
It varies greatly. Okay, I'm not going to start the video because otherwise we'll be here forever . So, wait, I'm going to turn my head because I have quite a few things, uh, I have quite a few things to show you, and so, uh, there you go, it might be easier for me. So, let's go. So, uh, first of all, to introduce the character a little, Catywood is the founder, she is the director of investment at Dark Investment Management.
You'll see that what she's announcing there is actually the result of a rigorous analysis of different fundamental macroeconomic variables. You will see that the analysis suggests that Bitcoin is not simply a diversification asset but is also the pivot of a global monetary system that is forming a new global monetary system.
You 've noticed, haven't you, that the world is strange at the moment, right, ever since the COVID crisis? So, all sorts of things are happening and, uh, the world is changing, and I suggest we study all of that a little bit in this video. So to understand the magnitude of the prediction because it gives Bitcoin at least $800,000, right?
So to understand this, you first need to understand how Arcest analyzes the valuation of assets such as Bitcoin. So Arc Invest's approach is not based specifically on a linear extrapolation of the price but rather on an analysis of the penetration of Bitcoin in the total addressable markets, what is called the TAM.
And uh, so that's what I put on this diagram that you can see here. So that would imply a Bitcoin price exceeding $7600 or even $1.5 million in the most optimistic scenarios. So here we have institutional investments, which would amount to 200 billion dollars. We have the reserves of nation-states, which are currently projected to be $15 billion by 2030.
Corporate treasuries: $7 billion . Digital gold jackets their physical he 16 billion dollars and here safe-haven assets 68 billion dollars huh. So, there you have it, the penetration score is here, and we can see that here it is 35% in terms of penetration. That's the basic scenario. Here we have the bullish scenario where it is approximately 50%.
So the contribution to the price would be around 30% at the level of digital gold. So institutional investment here would be the main bullish driver, right, since it represents 43% of the value sle. So, this is a dynamic that is mainly fueled by the massive adoption of spot ETFs, i.e. spot ETFs and the integration of Bitcoin.
in wealth management portfolios by giants such as Morgan Stanley, Mary Lynch and so on and so forth. So the crucial point, which is highlighted by Catywood, lies in the mathematical nature of Bitcoin in relation to gold. In 2025, when the price of gold increases by more than 60% to meet global demand, gold miners were able to increase production to match demand, which is absolutely impossible for Bitcoin.
The growth of the Bitcoin supply. Well, you already know, it's programmed to slow down to about 0.41 % by 2028, right? So this will really create an asymmetry in the market and this will mechanically result in a violent appreciation of the price of Bitcoin. So, I'm going to show you the formula they use to calculate the Bitcoin valuation formula for the year 2030.
No, but this is all very serious, you know. This is very, very serious. So you can see that this formula isn't that complicated, since we have the sum of the TAM (Total Average Price) multiplied by the percentage of penetration, which is divided by the supply in 2030, with a supply estimated at around 20.5 million Bitcoins in 2030.
Obviously, each percentage point of penetration in the global market portfolio, which is estimated at around 200 trillion, will obviously generate insane buying pressure. So that means roughly 2000 billion, or roughly $100,000 per Bitcoin, per additional point of penetration. So, one of the important points that Katywood wants to emphasize for 2026 is the fact that we will go from a recession which is currently a rolling recession, it is called a rotating recession.
We're going to switch to a rotating schedule . That is to say, basically within the American economy, there will be a kind of economy on steroids somewhere that will be characterized primarily by aggressive deregulation, lower taxes, and unprecedented technological acceleration . We're already seeing that , aren't we?
Okay, I'm not going to give you all the theories that exist about the different tank movies that are currently talking about the growth of the United States, but it's really something very interesting and, well, you might think that Trump is crazy with his stories about Greenland, for example, things like that, but not at all, not at all.
Greenland is an ideal place to set up data centers because it's cold there. It's cold there and there are rare earth elements. Investments in data center systems, in data centers for AI, are going to double, they're going to double and they're going to reach $14 trillion by 2030. So that's going to channel massive capital towards computing infrastructure and energy infrastructure because currently the main resource for artificial intelligence is electricity.
So there's a real buzz about it, with synergies with Bitcoin mining . Bitcoin is becoming, in a way, a tool for managing energy demand for networks powering AI clusters. There you go, you understand how it should work. So Wood claims that we are about to enter an era of AI where there will be a decrease in unit production costs and this will obviously favor scarce and decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
So, there is also the fact that, uh, under the impetus of Trump's current advisors, uh, who are uh in favor of digital assets, I am thinking in particular of uh, David Sax, well, uh, there will be an effective corporate tax rate that will be close to 10%. Uh, so who's going to drop, huh, who's going to drop sharply.
So this will create a financial windfall, which will allow companies to strengthen their balance sheets. As early as 2024, there were already 74 public companies holding approximately $55 billion in Bitcoin. So that 's still a lot, isn't it? And uh, so if all these companies have increased profitability due to tax cuts, then there will be a trend towards the adoption of Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset, and that's something that should accelerate, and we should have a penetration rate towards the 10% target, which is in the bullish scenario I showed you a little earlier here.
So then you're going to tell me yes, but there's debt and so on. Okay, let's talk about the debt. We're going to talk about it because it's the macroeconomic factor that is currently, well, it's the most scary factor, it's the most alarming and potentially, uh, it's also the most powerful for Bitcoin.
Yes, the national debt has exceeded $38.4 trillion. It's gigantic, hey, so it's a level of debt that is really terrible, huh. If you also combine it with interest rate levels that have remained high for longer than expected, then... Thank you, thank you, Jérôme Powellin. Well, you can see that it's a real budget black hole for the United States.
So, interest payments on public debt have become the fastest-growing spending category. Well, that's what I'm showing you in this table, since the GDP ratio, you see here, is 19% interest as a percentage of federal spending. It's still terrible, isn't it? It simply means that the Fed, the Federal Reserve, well, it could be forced to maintain reserves or inject liquidity to ensure that the US Treasury can be solvent, because otherwise they won't be solvent .
As a result, Bitcoin is obviously emerging as a safe haven against the exchange rate devaluation. So, you see, it's the institutional investors, well, they're afraid that there will be an erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar in the long term. And so, it starts to lease capital. They could start lending capital to Bitcoin, if only to stabilize their portfolio in the face of exchange rate risk and sovereign defaults.
So Wood Wood is actually highlighting that Bitcoin will act simultaneously as a risk asset. I've already talked about that in other videos, haven't I? That is to say, it is linked to technological growth but also as a risk asset, meaning that it will be a refuge against the failure of centralized systems.
So this is a proven duality of Bitcoin, uh, mainly we already saw it in 2023 when there were the regional banking crises in the United States . So Morgan Stanley is now going to get into Bitcoin since they have filed their own form for a Bitcoin and Solana OTF. I want to make it clear that Solana in January 2026 is a turning point, make no mistake, it's a symbolic turning point.
So the top-tier banks, like Goldman Saxe, JP, Morgan, are strengthening their position and their trading, custody, tokenization operations, and Bitcoin is going to become, well, the cultural Rubicon, if you will. So, I don't know if you've noticed, but we no longer have the sudden drops we used to have with Bitcoin, simply because institutional money prevents that, it now prevents sudden drops of, for example, 75% like we've already seen with Bitcoin.
So that's Catywood's theory. Then there is also the crucial role of stablecoins, but for that we have to wait until the Clarity and Genus Acts are truly finalized. We're not there yet . If we do a market analysis and onchain data in January 2026. Wait, I'll find that for you. Currently, we need to look at the STH part, right, that is to say the cost basis of short-term holders which is roughly on a key resistance, right, here, right.
So, 96,000 dollars, right? So, it acts, if you will, like a threshold, a critical threshold between a bull market and a consolidation phase. So that means that the market sentiment currently is rather at the level of anxiety, you see, since the end of 2025. Moreover, you can see in my videos that there is a certain level of anxiety at the Bitcoin level.
Well, I 'm not anxious, I don't actually care about the price of Bitcoin. But the thing is, if he makes a million dollars, I'm not against it at all, actually. So it's important to understand that this feeling of anxiety is always present before phases of exponential growth. So, you see, we could have some pretty explosive growth on Bitcoin, maybe not in the very short term, but something in the medium term.
In any case, during the year 2026, that's probably what will happen. Hey, if you look here at the LTHs, huh, that is to say the long-term holders, uh, they actually resumed accumulation after 3 months of distribution, huh. So that means they already have confidence in Bitcoin again, right? So, in parallel, we have spot ETF flows.
So, they have more or less stabilized after a period of outflows mainly in November and December, with over $120 billion still under management. Uh, we have the infrastructure ready for a new wave of massive accumulation. So, all that remains is the macroeconomic catalyst that could facilitate this.
So I think Katywood's thesis is very relevant. I find that Bitcoin right now is really at a crossroads between two forces that are truly colossal forces: an economy that is currently a deflationary productivity economy that is looking for a reserve asset, a pure reserve asset, and a sovereign fiscal machine that is truly overheating.
So since they are currently evaluating the dollar, if you have USDT, be careful because it's starting to sting. I believe that since Trump came to power, we have lost 10%. So the explosion of uh Catywood, huh, the explosion that is predicted huh on the Bitcoin of Catywood, huh, well it rests mainly on the passage of Bitcoin, from a speculative asset to a fiduciary and sovereign imperative with mainly the entry of large wealth management banks, huh, into the capital of Bitcoin in a way, huh.
strategic reserve of Bitcoin by the United States. So, the floor if you want the price, it has been structurally raised now by the cost base of the world's largest financial institutions. So, let's get down to brass tacks now because I think I've bored you quite a bit with all these terms. I'm still trying to keep it simple, but oh well.
So, from a quantitative point of view, the current convergence, if you will, towards a price of $120,000 to $170,000 in 2026, in my opinion, is a scenario that is even rather conservative if ETFs, if the flows going towards ETFs, continue to stabilize and if there is real regulation coming out, in particular on the Clarity Act, which should in fact unlock about $50 billion of institutional allocation that is expected .
So in the bullish scenario, we would really have adoption by central banks, an acceleration of fiscal inflation which could really propel Bitcoin beyond its peaks towards $500,000. So this is projected by on-chain models. 2026 is truly a pivotal year. We will see Bitcoin in 2026 that it will no longer be just a digital currency, it will truly become the barometer of the resilience of the global financial system which is facing a record debt, including in Europe, in China, everywhere .
It's terrible and it will probably become the accelerator of the technological revolution in artificial intelligence. Thank you so much for watching this video. Remember to give it a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel and I'll see you soon for new adventures.
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