저자: Kevin · 외국인
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로빈후드 IPO 직후 S-1 1차 분석. 1분기 순손실 14억 달러는 워런트 부채 평가손실 등 비현금성 요인 때문이며, 이를 제외하면 연환산 EPS 약 1달러로 양호하다고 주장. 거래 수수료 수익 4.2억 달러, 옵션 비중 약 절반, 마케팅 비용 3배 증가(인플루언서 제휴 영향). 밸류에이션은 주당 80~90달러 가능성 언급하나 기업 전망에 대한 자산 매매 예측은 없음.
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hey everyone me kevin here okay i we just got done with the valuetainment podcast and i was going to go change the pricing for the courses with that 40 percent of google code that's expiring yesterday i was gonna change the pricing and now the robinhood ipo comes out and i'm like oh my gosh i gotta get back somewhere i can record so we're in the valuetainment studio they're kind enough to let me film in here and we gotta go through some first impressions on these numbers oh oh my gosh oh my gosh like wow the robin hood numbers are out let's do first impressions on the robin hood numbers so i'm gonna have to just speak some of these numbers here because i can't get them up on screen so the first thing that struck me like right away i'm like oh my gosh net loss for robin hood in the first quarter was 1.433 billion dollars actually one point four four billion dollars like what happened what happened that's absolutely horrible for robin hood what happened we got to digest this and so i kept going through the report and here's what i'm taking away here's what i'm learning here's what i've got highlighted transaction based revenue folks they're making 420 million dollars or made 420 million dollars in just the first quarter that's almost double the last three months of last year their transaction revenue skyrocketed this fourth quarter now we don't expect that to continue we do expect there to be some sort of slowdown in momentum trading and volume that's going to mean less revenues as well but we're gonna get into the weeds in terms of where they're making their money how involved is citadel we've got lots to talk about here uh net interest revenue so imagine this would be on stock lending probably and also on margin 62 million so really a fraction i mean that's like 13 14 of their transaction based revenue other revenues i imagine this is uh this is these are things like robin hood gold i haven't read through the whole s1 yet i'm probably i mean i've spent about 30 minutes on it right now and we're doing this video to talk about some initial first impressions here so a lot of weeds to go through here but we've got 39 million dollars there uh so that's less than 10 of the transaction revenue going to this their expenses in the first quarter absolutely exploded in terms of marketing their marketing expense literally 3xed their marketing expenses in the quarter went from 33 million to 102 million dollars now that's probably because they started paying they started doing affiliate partnerships with a lot of creators right before the massive gamestop crisis and that was one of the reasons they ended up with net more users during the gamestop crisis which ended up being perfect for them because they were able to tell everyone in the media hey look we ended up getting more users despite the gamestop crisis yeah but that's because between january 22nd and february 1st you were doing a sign up and get four free stocks with this creator link and then paying affiliate commissions much more than you had ever done before with the sign up and get a free stock thing or whatever with robinhood the new affiliate structure is huge and it cost them a pretty freaking penny in that first quarter 102 million dollars that's a lot because they doubled their transaction growth uh which i mean hopefully that marketing revenue long tails right i don't think they're spending that kind of money anymore i think they realize they overspent so this is probably a little bit more of a one-time thing just because they haven't really talked about bringing the affiliate thing back doing the like the crypto things the smaller commissions and things but i think they realized they overspent on creator affiliate commissions it was insane technology development they spent 116 million dollars that's up from 81 million uh 900 000 in the last quarter and up from 44 million i'm sorry 55 million in the quarter before ending september 30th 2020.
so they're spending a lot more on technology spending more on operations about 50 more in operations 50 more on technology uh only about 30 more on the actual brokerage and transaction side but uh the big expense actually comes from and this is this helps us understand this a little bit change in value in convertible notes and warrant liabilities now that's going to take a lot more weeding through to go through but there were some recent sec rule changes where you have to recognize warrants now and this was a big issue with spax you have to recognize warrants as an expense even though like you're getting cash from selling warrants you have to recognize it as an expense the same thing's happening at sofi you look at their general and admin it's like way through the roof and in the weeds of their s1 is that 83 or 87 million dollars of that is because of warrants well you've got the same kind of warrant crisis going on here except it's for 1.49 billion dollars literally if you walked back the 1.49 billion dollars this company would be profitable it's insane to say but this company would be at around 50 to 60 million dollars in profit i'm doing rough rough numbers right now because again i can't share the screen there's limited i could do here i i can only do this on one take as well so you're getting me pretty raw here so right now they recognized a six dollar and twenty cent loss per share in the first quarter but again most of that worn liabilities they'd be profitable if it weren't for these warrant liabilities in fact if they were somewhere around 60 million dollars of revenue in the first quarter without these warrant liabilities you would take that 60 million divided by 230 million diluted shares puts you somewhere around 26 cents in quarterly revenue that's about a buck you'd be at about a dollar in annualized eps if you could extrapolate out because their marketing expenses are going to go down their transaction revenues are going to go down a bit they're probably at an annualized 2021 one dollar eps when you take out the warrant liabilities that's actually really good because i expect robinhood to probably sell for ipo somewhere between evaluation private market revaluation right now is like 60 65 70 per share i wouldn't be surprised if they're somewhere closer to uh an 80 90 per share which would put them very high on 2021 valuation be like 80 90 times but if you extrapolate it out to 2022 3 4 you know future pe would actually be lower they're they're making a decent amount of revenue a very decent amount of revenue it's not bad at all right now we've got uh robin hood uh primary sources of liquidity looks like a lot of they raised a lot of warrants and and notes during the uh gme crisis uh that they're gonna have to go through the weeds on this i want to explore now uh here we go this is interesting okay so this here says how they're making most of their money folks this is mind-blowing okay ready for this options 197 million dollars in the first quarter of 2021 that's about that's almost half of their revenue was coming from options trading and finra just smacked them upside the head because of misleading statements regarding options now i did a whole breakdown video on finra and these options but oh i cannot believe i mean you this is probably about 45 percent is going anyways from options only 133 million out of 420 i have 420 uh it actually is 420 million total transaction based revenue is 420 million it's perfect but anyway equities is only 130.
so that's uh that's less than half right i mean you're somewhere in like 30 or something like that uh almost half options maybe somewhere around 30 for equities crypto currencies even this is okay this literally robin hood hands down any experiment i've ever done has the best cryptocurrency pricing you're not paying the coinbase pro five dollars you're not paying the spreads that you're paying at other cryptocurrency apps and i know people hate hearing that because well hey if it's not you're you know if you don't have control of your coin it's not your coin you know you don't have your key it's not your coin i get that you they don't have the crypto wallets i totally totally get it folks i don't know how they do it but they've got the cheapest pricing and they still made 87.5 million dollars off cryptocurrencies i mean that's like 18 to 20 but still oh my gosh on interest lending margin interest 27 million securities lending see what did i say share lending 35 million interest on segregated cash uh so cash people having their their cash accounts a million bucks i mean that's that's nothing uh total net revenues 522 million dollars total operating expenses uh coming in at 463 million mind you these operating expenses have exploded uh looking at some of their opex here general and administration and these are uh let's see these are i want to go back to the first page here so marketing operations these are comparing quarters to quarters yeah i mean you've had actually an explosion in some of these expenses we talked about brokerage going from first quarter expenses 30 million to uh to 41 million let me see how they loop it over on this particular page here because it's a little different here we have first three months of march oh okay okay okay now they're comparing the first three months of 2021 not to the last three months of 2020 but to the first three months of 2020.
so this gives you a year over year overview they are spending double on brokerage and transaction from 20 million to 41 million they're spending uh over three and a half x on technology and development from 33 million to 116 million operations grew from 21 mil to 66 mil that's a triple you've got marketing that went up 46 year-over-year so maybe they do like a beginning of the year blitz something else i'm going to take a peek at general and admin went up almost 4x 34 million to actually that's about yeah that's about 4x uh 34 million to 137 million uh for net total expenses of 463 million again if you got rid of those warrant liabilities this would be a very profitable company at about an annualized dollar earnings per share for 2021 uh that's that's very very very good now i'm just going to verify these numbers here because you've got if you take uh 522 minus 463 that's about 60.
we've got 60 in 1060 million dollars we've got 200 well and then multiply by 4 so 6 times 4 is 24. yeah and you've got 230 million shares outstanding so there'll be 240 mil in in a net 60 times four 240 mil in that they've got a diluted share count of 230 mil it's about a dollar eps annualized per uh uh i mean in in valuation well not in valuation and what they're earning a dollar per share without those warrant liabilities now those war liabilities are gonna throw a lot of people for a while i think uh people are probably gonna go oh my gosh robin hood went from profitable in the in in the last quarter of 2020 to losing massive amounts of money the first quarter i think there's gonna be a lot of clickbait i don't think people are gonna get into the weeds on the warrants i've got a lot more reading to do but this is my first impression this is really really interesting let's talk about valuation though okay so wise if they are uh if they're trading at uh uh you know ten dollars a share that would put them at a uh 2.3 billion dollar company because we've got 230 million shares times 10 a share puts them at 2.3 billion they're not gonna sell for that uh let's say they sold for a hundred times or a hundred dollars per share that would put them somewhere around a valuation of 23 billion dollars so fast clocking in at 16 bill so far is not probably going to be profitable until 2022 2023 minus these warrant liabilities this company's printing cash folks it's printing money i don't know how they're printing so much money on the cryptocurrencies i want to get to the bottom of that i want to get to the bottom of how they're printing so much money on these equity transactions and options holy smokes uh market makers here on citadel folks 27 of their business is going to citadel 7 27 then you've got uh 12 percent going to uh suscu hana international group taimoshan limited 11 entities affiliated with wolverine holdings nine percent other less than 20 less than 10 each totaling at 22 uh and and then you've got some other things as well so uh but citadel at uh almost a third uh you should really say just over a fourth of uh of of their market making revenues so uh very very very very very interesting s1 i cannot wait to read the rest of this i'll bring you more update realize i just got this document not that long ago this is the first impression here we just one took this thank you so much for watching this really appreciate you and folks we'll see you in the next one with more details bye
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