저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
팔란티어의 사업 구조(Foundry, AIP, Gotham, Apollo)와 성장 지표를 설명한다. 2025년 2분기 매출 +48%, 상업부문 +93%, 조정영업이익률 46%로 Rule of 40(합계 94)을 충족한다고 본다. NDR은 120%대 수준으로 기존 고객 확장이 강하다고 평가한다. 다만 PER 약 500배, 매출 대비 약 90배 등 고평가 우려와 주가 하락 가능성을 함께 제기한다. 주가 방향에 대한 단정은 없고, 성장 지속 여부를 확인할 체크리스트를 제시하는 것으로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
What kind of company is Palantir? Even as a shareholder, it is difficult to answer this question clearly . Godang, Apollo, NDR, Land and Expand. If you try to read even the news about this company, it is full of incomprehensible words. Today, we start with this question . What kind of company is Palantir?
How do you make money, and why does the market pay a premium? And let's follow the flow to see what the risks are. The spread of AI usually goes through three stages . The first is the chip, the second is the infrastructure, and the third is the software. The smartphone era was the same. Apple and Qualcomm led the chip market, and the new chips made a performance leap.
The infrastructure was supported by AWS and Azure, and sustained by the cloud and network. In the software sector, the App Store and Google Play opened their doors, and messengers, music, mobility, and e-commerce exploded. The same goes for AI. AI chips were led by Microsoft and AMD. It has grown significantly, enabling large-scale model training and inference .
The AI infrastructure was handled by AWS, Azure, and others. It grew significantly by acting as a road network that stably runs models and data . Now it is the software's turn to grow. We will generate actual efficiency and speed based on the data. What products does Palantir sell ? I will start by telling you about four major products .
Foundry The etymology is foundry. Data is woven together like a process to produce results. It means this. It displays company data on a single screen, calculates inventory demand costs all at once, and limits the timing of orders and alternative suppliers. AIP. This stands for AI Platform. It is an AI space where you can give instructions interactively.
All commands are in natural language. The complex coding skills that were needed to make computers do work are no longer necessary . Gotham. Uh-uh is Gotham City, a neighbor of New York . This is a situational awareness map of national defense and public security . Displays video sensor reports on a single screen and assists with placement and response decisions .
The etymology of Apollo is the Greek god Apollo. It means safely launching and recovering important missions. It automatically updates the models installed on-site . The key is decision speed. It doesn't end with the report. It leads to execution. The results of these cost and time savings are proven by numbers.
Contracts with the government and the Ministry of National Defense are growing larger. A contract worth up to $10 billion over 10 years has been signed with Miyu. The purchase is a continuing contract in the smart system. NATO also adopted this. I will check the numbers here. Palantir's revenue grew 48% in the second quarter of 2025 .
Sales in the commercial sector here grew by 93%. The adjusted operating margin boosted both growth and earnings by 46% . The indicator used here is Rule 40. It is a rule of thumb that if the sum of the growth rate and profitability margin is 40 or more, it is healthy. Palantir has a growth rate of 48 and an adjusted margin of 46.
Total 94. That is a very high figure. If you look at other software companies, they have maintained this Rule 40 for a long time. Crowd Strike also saw the formation of a large Rule 40 during the high-growth phase . At that time, the stock price rose significantly. On the other hand, Salesforce, Adobe, and Shopify achieved Rule 40, but their stock prices fell significantly due to growth fluctuations and margin changes .
Therefore, Rule 40 does not guarantee a rise in stock price . Palantir's growth and margin fluctuations could be the trigger for a decline in the stock price . There is another important indicator . This is the NDR four-dollar retention. Net output retention rate. We look at how much existing customers who spent 100 won last year spent on average this year.
Palantir's recent Endia is reported to be in the high 120% range . It means that even if you cannot increase the number of new customers, you can grow by more than 20% with existing customers alone . A high NDR is a sign that value is taking root and expanding in the field . This is the key basis justifying the stock price premium along with the acceleration of the commercial sector .
Let's briefly go over two indicators here . Rule 40 is an indicator that assesses the fundamental strength of growth by looking at whether the sum of the growth rate and profit margin exceeds 40. NDR is a repurchase growth rate that shows how much more the same customer spends next year. The core controversy regarding what the problem is is simple.
The results are great, but the price is even higher. Some call Palantir Hyper Prime. It is pointed out that the valuation is 90 times the revenue. If growth slows, stock prices can fall significantly . Syncodias also pointed this out. It was reported that the combined total of RTX, Lockheed, and Northrop has approached that of a cigar gun .
The logic is that their revenue is much smaller, but their market value is similar. The combined revenue of these three companies is $192.8 billion . On the other hand, Palantir is showing sales of 4.1 billion. It is roughly in the low 2% range . Sales are only about 45 minutes . However, the market value is close.
The market capitalization is 45 times overvalued. You can also view it this way. It was the power of standardization. Allies will now use the same software . We share the same screen, the same procedure, and the same data. Training, manuals, and security certifications can be used together . Procurement, distribution, and maintenance become faster.
Interoperability increases, and new features are propagated all at once. The commercial sector is also picking up speed . Currently, the government sector generates 55% of revenue, while the commercial sector generates 45% . However, as the commercial sector grows at an annual average rate of 93%, it is reducing its dependence on the government sector.
Supply and demand and market sentiment are also among the reasons for the premium . With its inclusion in the SP 500, a large amount of passive funds flowed in. Expectations for large-cap AI stocks are supporting the premium. The valuation is in a high range. Recently, the PR is around 500. PR 500 means that if you were to take over the company and repay the principal using annual profits, it would take 500 years .
This is an unspeakably high valuation . However, it is not a price tag that anyone can receive. It is also an honor bestowed only upon the best leaders in industries capable of significant long-term growth, and only during the early stages of that growth . There was a time in 2013 when Amazon's PR exceeded 1,100.
Of course, the stock price dropped by as much as -30% a year later, but the peak price of $20 at the time looks quite cheap from the current perspective. However, statistical data shows that there are far more cases where the stock prices of such overvalued companies fell sharply and failed to rise again.
So, a checklist is needed. We need to examine whether the number of U.S. corporate customers is increasing and if the purchasing speed continues to be fast . Growth in the commercial sector is key, and a slowdown in growth could be a sign of demand saturation . First, is the NDR of 120% maintained? More than half of Palantir's revenue growth is driven by the expansion of existing customers .
If NDR decreases, it means that Palantir's core strategy, Land and Expand—that is, the method of expanding by entering into small contracts—is weakened . The higher the NDR, the more the same customers spend each year, making the foundation for growth solid. Second, we need to verify how quickly news regarding the US military contract, Meibun, and NATO translates into actual quarterly revenue.
Sales contracts and pipelines are just promises. It is important that quarterly execution is proven by numbers. Rule 40 must defend high ranges not only on a quarterly basis but also on an annual basis . The stock price can fall significantly if either growth or margins waver . Rule 40, that is, the sum of the growth rate and profit margin must be maintained at a minimum of 40 .
In addition, the balance between growth and profit is important. Beyond the era of 10 and the era of infrastructure, it is now the era of software. Nvidia, Amazon, and even Microsoft. The stock price has grown significantly thanks to the growth of AI . However, now it is the software's turn to continue that growth .
That is why people buy stocks at that high premium. Palantir's premium is a bet on these stages of growth in advance. Since the price went up first, we must now prove it with results. That's all for today's video. I wish you all successful investments. thank you
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