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welcome back to the breakdown with me and LW it's a daily podcast on macro Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world what's going on guys it is Thursday July 6th and today we are talking about blackrock's Larry Fink giving a laser-eyed Bitcoin interview before we get into that however if you are enjoying the breakdown please go subscribe to it give it a rating give it a review or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation come join us on the breakers Discord you can find a link in the show notes or go to bit.ly breakdownpod all right friends today we have a fun one for you it's really in many ways a continuation of the biggest news we've had in the last couple weeks and as you'll see what I think is the biggest news in some ways post FTX what I'm talking about is of course the BlackRock ETF filing for as big a deal as people think this was I think they're wrong because I think it's a bigger deal it is the Gandalf you shall not pass moments stopping SPF from dragging the entire industry down the hole with him and it's not so much a narrative moment because the key narrative moment for Bitcoin post FTX came during the banking crisis while Bitcoin was doing well as all the banks shuttered and mainstream media picked it up that these things might be connected this is instead a psychological moment but as opposed before we get into all that I should actually tell you guys what happened on Wednesday night BlackRock CEO Larry Fink gave a wide-ranging interview on Fox Business among the topics he covered were the toxicity of the ESG movement the dramatic size of by guidance infrastructure stimulus and the likelihood of more Fed rate hikes to come of course for our little corner of the world there was only one topic and that was Bitcoin think ratified what bitcoiners have been saying for more than a decade at this point that Bitcoin represents the digitization of gold Fink said quote the role of crypto is digitizing gold in many ways instead of investing in gold as a hedge against inflation a hedge against the onerous problems of any one country or the devaluation of your currency of whatever country you're in let's be clear he said Bitcoin is an international asset it's not based on any one currency and so it can represent an asset that people can play as an alternative now interestingly this interview was one of the first that I've seen that didn't make a choice between the Bitcoin or blockchain narratives and instead embraced both think basically expressed a belief that blockchains could be a transformative step in the evolution of financial infrastructure he said we're a believer in digitization of products ETFs were a big revolution from the mutual fund industry and it's really taking over the mutual fund industry we do believe that if we can create more tokenization of assets and securities and that's what Bitcoin is it can revolutionize Finance again now he elaborated this even further later in the interview pushing back against host Charles gasparino's suggestion that the value of kryptos had diverged from their perceived lack of use cases gasparino said at one point I don't know a lot of people who use the blockchain to transact I know a lot of people who own Bitcoin I don't see the utility in the underlying technology think basically immediately shut that down and said I actually believe the underlying technology is fantastic the blockchain will help you accelerate the process of transactions let's be clear if you have a pure blockchain and you have knowledge of who the buyers and sellers are we don't need custodians anymore the whole process of Finance some of the intermediaries are broken down now at the same time Fink acknowledged that there's still work to be done to achieve a financial system with fewer intermediaries we're not close to there but it's an advancement of Technology he said this represented a pretty dramatic rebuttal to the idea that Bitcoin has no use cases talking point and I'm not even really capturing the tone Fink basically laughed in the host's face for saying that you gotta think the other cable news personalities saw that and might rethink their approach to this question just a little bit now if you've been in the Bitcoin space for a while you might recognize just how much of a shift this new outlook on bitcoin is for Larry back in October 2017 when Bitcoin was up 470 for the year and making new highs on a daily basis think called the asset an index of money laundering adding that Bitcoin just shows you how much demand for money laundering there is in the world that's all it is now Fink did indirectly speak to some of these previous comments asserting that in the early days bitcoin's primary use case was illicit transactions however he suggested that as adoption has grown the reasons to own and use Bitcoin have become more legitimate now while Fink is prohibited from making specific comments about blackrock's ETF application and its prospects for approval he did comment that quote we work really closely with our regulators and we want to hear from The Regulators what are their issues and can we fix those issues around speaking to the rationale behind offering a Bitcoin ETF thing said quote what we're trying to do with crypto is make it more democratized with all of crypto to make it much cheaper for investors right now the bid ask spread for crypto is very expensive it does erode a lot of the returns you speak about because it costs a lot of money to transact Bitcoin and it costs a lot of money to get out of that we hope our Regulators look at these filings as a way to democratize crypto Fink also even took a moment to address some of the more outlandish theories out there suggesting that BlackRock is just going to try to immediately create a BlackRock Fork of Bitcoin or something like that he said our job is to be working on behalf of the asset owners we're the largest asset manager that means none of the money is ours we're a fiduciary we do what our clients are asking and we've had good performance we've been right on Market calls so there are a few things that stood out to me about this interview first of all the interview was on Fox this was an exclusive interview that could have easily been done with Aaron Sorkin on squawkbox or Bloomberg but it wasn't remember think is a major major democratic contributor in the U.S the fact that he chose the right aligned rather than the left or right media seems telling what's more as much as we're talking about the Bitcoin side of this interview he was definitely there to publicly denounce ESG and criticize the hard left and hard right for politicizing energy policy his big point was that we need fossil fuels at the moment while the world builds out Renewables and carbon reduction Tech in fact no one really picked up on it but Fink said at one point that they were in the middle of a big deal with a major gas producer to work on sequestration obviously it's getting a little too far ahead of ourselves at this point but it's not crazy to see that sort of thinking leading to something like oh I don't know financing of gas flare mining on a large scale anyways the point was that there was a clear political motivation underlying this interview that was exhibit in where it happened a second really interesting thing to me was this idea of Bitcoin being an international asset this was in some ways a more sophisticated development of Paul Tudor Jones great monetary inflation thesis one of the things that has been confusing for some people about that thesis is that Bitcoin went down as inflation went up now of course there's a lot of nuance there but I think that the biggest thing is that in a lot of ways what we mean when we say that Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation is actually that Bitcoin is a hedge against debasement Larry Fink made that point explicitly and in a way that really undermines the why do we need Bitcoin when we have venmo take lastly I sort of mentioned this before but the fact that tokenized everything was sitting right next to the Bitcoin narrative is really fascinating and marks something new it seems likely to me that Fink recognizes that regulatory acceptance needs to happen on a large scale first before the U.S can really begin working on blockchain-based tokenization in the U.S but it's probably hard for him to ignore the tokenization progress that's happened in the EU Singapore Hong Kong Etc he he didn't say it explicitly but I wouldn't be surprised if Larry is thinking about what the world looks like if the US is stuck with the dtcc and other intermediaries taking a massive rent out of all Financial transactions while other jurisdictions are slinging around fractional Securities on Smart contract platforms for pennies but if that's what I thought what were other people in the community taking away from this interview well one type of commentary was certainly the peevish annoyance from people who don't particularly like Bitcoin Isabella Kaminsky from the blind spot wrote masks off turns out Larry Fink was a Bitcoin bro all along there was of course also the pump my bags take Sherlock hoddles wrote Breaking BlackRock CEO Fink just said on Fox that he believes my bags will pump back to all-time high these may not be the exact words he used but I can read between the lines probably the biggest reaction in the crypto Community was something like validation American huddle wrote you could have heard it from Fink today or you could have heard it from the average pleb five years ago the front running of Wall Street has been epic Dylan LeClaire from Bitcoin magazine said BlackRock CEO saying what the average laser eye and on has been saying for years Color Me shocked pomp put it really simply BlackRock CEO is now the chief marketing officer of Bitcoin another theme that many picked up on was this turnaround in the discussion of ESG Greer from Galaxy digital said Larry finkshilling Bitcoin on Fox while saying he doesn't say the ESG word anymore is the real pivot Mike ippolito from blockworks said Larry Fink in 2020.
Bitcoin is a scam and uses too much energy Larry Fink in 2023 ESG is a scam by Bitcoin now there was some amount of concern or recognition of the irony of cheering on BlackRock the world's biggest financial institution getting involved in an asset that is meant to break the power in some ways of traditional financial institutions Wendy O tweeted BlackRock is about to be accepted by the Bighorn Maxes I thought the point was removing third-party predators and being your own bank self-custody will die more importantly I'm excited to get rich and ride the drift wave smart economy podcast host Dylan Grabowski wrote looking in the mirror I am laughing at myself for getting excited that the head of a financial Behemoth is validating the technology built to operate without figureheads and centralized institutions yet here we are an entire industry of self-sovereigns cheering him on now the ETF crowd was really looking at broader implications for the BlackRock ETF proposal specifically and tokenization more broadly Nate garasi the president of DTF store said BlackRock CEO on a major News Network talking Bitcoin ETFs is really all you need to know this thing is going to happen in my opinion what's more interesting to me than anything Bitcoin ETF related is Larry talking about the future tokenization of all Securities now Nate also made a point that this did actually validate all the people who had been pushing for a Bitcoin ETF and trying to argue why it was valuable to Consumers over the last few years he tweeted I feel like people just thought we were pumping a Bitcoin ETF for the past however many years now everyone's starting to see the light people investing in Bitcoin anyways through all kinds of expensive and sub-optimal ways ETF can be much cheaper and more efficient option finally James safard an ETF Analyst at Bloomberg wrote tldr BlackRock is all in on getting SEC approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in case that weren't already obvious and now we know unquestionably that it's coming from the top I think this is a really important Point there's a difference ultimately between BlackRock filing for an ETF and Larry Fink going on national TV telling all the bozos on the street to get with the program and that leads to what I think is the most important conclusion and take away from this all which was about psychology Neil Jacobs wrote Larry Fink's endorsement of Bitcoin today is an international asset reminds me of the Paul Tudor Jones endorsement of Bitcoin in May 2020.
another signal to Wall Street and Main Street the Overton window is Shifting macroscope tweeted things pro Bitcoin remarks today should not be underestimated openly gave BlackRock stamp of approval to bitcoin broadly but also as an acceptable and arguably Superior alternative to Gold will be consequential in terms of impact on psychology and the asset management world I think will Clemente got it even more simply when he said the CEO of the largest asset manager on Earth calling Bitcoin digital gold on live TV significantly decreases the career risk of portfolio managers holding Bitcoin so I said at the top of the show that it's not a narrative moment it's a psychological moment and what I mean by that is that this was in many ways a declaration with three audiences the first is the crypto industry as I pointed out this is a validation of what so many of us have felt for so long it was also however a declaration to The Regulators Adam Cochran summed this up a couple weeks ago when BlackRock first filed he wrote lots of weird takes of folks being like Warren and the Dems will never let the BlackRock ETF happen Larry Fink is a card-carrying Democrat Dem Super PAC donor and King maker this is one of the bankers who puppets Congress members everything just changed it's a classic case of first they fight you we're in the stage where BlackRock realizes this doesn't go away so now they try and get their slice of the market if Gensler denies Fink they'll Sue they'll call in political favors and they'll apply again until they win the largest money manager in the world with the most politically connected Banker in the world does not simply decide to wake up one day and take on a losing fight and that of course gets to the third audience that this is a declaration for which is the rest of the business world you heard it from Neil but a bunch of people are comparing this to the Paul Tudor Jones 2020 Bitcoin comments I think one can argue that this is in many ways bigger Paul Tudor Jones is brilliant he's famous he's enormously successful but ultimately he's a cowboy hedge fund manager there is a gigantic difference between a Cavalier risk taker advocating for Bitcoin and hearing it coming from the mouth of one of the most famously conservative Bond fun guys in the world when Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley druckenmiller talk about Bitcoin people think speculative hedge when Larry Fink talks about Bitcoin people think prudent hedge I think we are likely to see more comments around Bitcoin coming from BlackRock and Larry Fink in the future but as I said right at the top I think this is the most significant post FTX moment in the entire crypto industry until tomorrow guys be safe and take care of each other peace
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