저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 짐 로저스는 중국의 장기 부상과 미국의 과도한 부채에 따른 쇠퇴를 강조하며, 금·은·농산물·구리 등 원자재를 장기 보유 관점에서 긍정적으로 보고 가상화폐에는 부정적이다. 인물 소개: 로저스는 1973~1980년 퀀텀펀드 기간 중 큰 수익을 올렸고, 1998년 로저스 국제원자재지수(RICI)를 만들었다고 소개된다. 투자 철학: 로저스는 사이클 기반 의사결정을 공식적으로 하지 않는다고 밝힌다. 싸고 소외된 자산에서 구조적 변화가 일어날 때 장기 보유하는 것을 선호하며, 실수도 많다고 인정한다. 중국: 중국은 역사상 반복적으로 정상에 올랐던 국가이며 21세기에 중요하다고 본다. 자녀에게 중국어를 가르치려 아시아에 거주한다. 다만 중국 주식을 무턱대고 매수하라는 뜻은 아니며, 적절한 시점에 사야 돈을 번다고 말한다. 희토류 공급 장악은 당장 독점이 될 가능성은 낮지만 전쟁 등 큰 사건이 있으면 위험하다고 본다. 미국: 미국은 세계 최대 채무국이 되었고 과잉 통화 발행으로 인플레이션이 더 나빠질 것으로 우려한다. 역사상 어떤 패권국도 영원하지 않았으며, 미국도 장기적으로 1위 자리를 잃을 것으로 본다(올해는 아님). 젊은 미국인에게는 어려운 시기라고 평가한다. 원자재: 농산물은 농민 고령화로 침체 상태이며 장기 기회가 될 수 있다. 구리는 전기차에 가솔린차보다 여러 배 많이 쓰여 수요가 늘어난다. 금은 역사적 고점 근처이고 은은 금보다 역사적으로 훨씬 저렴해 은을 더 선호한다고 밝히며, 두 자산 모두 더 살 것이라고 언급한다. 금·은은 '안전자산'이라는 표현을 피하고 위기 때 찾는 자산이라고 설명한다. 가상화폐: 본질적 가치는 없다고 보며, 비트코인 등은 단기 트레이딩 수단일 뿐이다. 본인은 거래하지 않는다. 각국 중앙은행의 디지털화폐는 정부가 통제를 원하기 때문에 추진될 것이라고 본다. 기축통화: 역사적으로 파운드, 프랑 등이 기축 자리를 잃었듯 달러도 언젠가 밀려날 것이며, 미국의 정치화된 통화 정책이 이를 가속한다고 본다. 자신의 생전 또는 자녀 세대에 일어날 수 있다고 말한다. 역사 사이클: 제국과 통화의 흥망은 역사의 반복이며 누구나 알아야 한다고 강조한다.
다듬은 글
foreign excited and honored to have the legendary commodity Trader and portfolio manager Jim Rogers with us today from Singapore and uh Jim was one of the founding fathers of the quantum fund and between the years of 1973 to 1980 the fund is reported to have gained 4 200 percent whilst the S P 500 Index was up 47 quite an achievement uh Jim also in 1998 founded the Rogers International commodity index which is a benchmark that we all use today and he's also the author of several books uh including investment biker and Adventure capitalist uh Jim's views are highly sought out after and we're very honored to have you here so uh welcome Jim thank you for accommodating us and uh um particularly with our work with Cycles the question that everybody's asking be it at the foundation or at uh Market timing report do you use Cycles as part of your decision-making process well certainly not formally I don't I certainly am sometimes aware of Cycles uh but I don't I do not make investment decisions based on Cycles if that's your question if there's a cycle to be to know about I want to know about it yes definitely I mean okay silver for instances had ups and downs uh and I need to know about those ups and downs for anything right so um you've been incredibly prescient in your views and forecasts across a whole range of Commodities currencies and of course most financial instruments so if you're not using Cycles what do you put this down to what factors do you consider and how do you see these things coming up well and if first of all I make plenty of mistakes don't think I don't um I wish there were a way to avoid mistakes that would be great uh whatever success I have had it's from finding things that are cheap and ignored where there's a change taking place and if there's a serious change I hope I'm smart enough to figure it out and I'm hope I'm smart enough to buy it but the beauty of that kind of investing is you can own it a very long time and I'm lazy you know selling takes work so if I can find something that I can own for a long time it makes my life simpler what you consider a long time then what sort of time periods are we looking at well the best would be the rest of my life then I'll never have to sell it you know my lawyer will sell it someday um no I'm just as long as possible and nothing goes on forever as you well know uh but if I like to find things that I can't own for a long time whether it's a year or a decade fabulous thank you so um I first met you back in 2008 and you'd literally just moved to Singapore I think you came across we met in Miami and I remember you telling us that you wanted your daughters to be fluent in Mandarin uh you've always been very bullish on China in fact I think you were probably one of the first people to really speak out about this what are your latest thoughts about uh China the nation both economically and geopolitically well I well first of all China is the only country in history that's had recurring periods of greatness Great Britain was great ones Rome was great ones Egypt was grade ones but China for whatever reason has been on top three or four times in history it's collapsed three or four times in history but it's the only country that for whatever reason after being at the bottom for a few years uh turns around and Rises to the top again and from what I can figure out that's happening again it's going to be extremely important in the 21st and it already is as we all know now people laugh back in those days it said no Japan Japan well I figured it was going to be China I still have that view I wanted my children to know Asia and to speak Mandarin so I Was preparing them for the 21st century I hope that does not mean that you can rush out and buy Chinese shares every day no no no no no America had many bear markets and problems along the way but it became a very successful country and if you buy chairs at the right time you've made a lot of money and how do you see the uh geopolitical significance of uh China um at the moment well they are the largest country uh or certainly one-off are they in India both claim to be the largest so in that sense they are very important their economy is certainly one of the strongest in the world one of the largest in the world and that has a huge significance when you have a very large economy and a very large population people pay attention to you I think China's the largest trading country or partner with many many countries in the world so that means that people listen to them or want to know what they're thinking or doing they will certainly have declines that would certainly have problems just as the U.S did but I'm I'm living in Asia because of China and I want my children to speak Mandarin because of China right now one of the things is that China has got a very strong grasp on the rare Earths which are critical really as we evolve in things like the electrical vehicle market and so on how do you see this impacting the rest of the world can you see China creating a monopoly in this area and what would therefore there be the consequences for the rest of the western world well you have said it they do have the control of the supply of these things which we need which we being the world um I'm sure I hope the world will find other sources eventually but at the moment China has the supply and China if it ever comes to it they they can put the squeeze on a lot of people I hope that they continue to trade and sell the stuff uh I hope we all continue to trade and sell our products I mean can you see a time where China might create a more monopoly-like uh situation and just hang on to this stuff or do you think that's a lot likely to happen well I don't think it's likely to happen anytime soon but yes of course it can happen if there's war or something we the us are going to cut off a lot of things everybody's going to cut off a lot of things I hope there's no war but no I don't see that I mean China wants to sell the stuff it wants to make money everybody does but unless something serious happens I suspect that they will continue to sell to the rest of the world thank you so um just looking back at your career you've um not only lived through these and very successfully harness the super inflationary time period from 1970 to 1975 uh which is probably a golden opportunity how has this impacted your mindset towards trading and investing ever since and do you think we're approaching this time sort of this sort of scenario again well first of all I know it's not easy I knew it takes a lot of work unfortunately I loved what I was doing still do but especially in those days so it takes work and there are opportunities if you will look for them not just in stocks but bonds countries currencies Commodities there are opportunities and everything if one is diligent okay and um well where do you see inflation heading right now well throughout history when someone prints a lot of money it has always led to inflation and we have certainly printed a huge amount of money again as you know not just we the U.S but Japan and many other countries as well so inflation is back uh I'm afraid it's going to get worse because so much money has been printed you know we had it in the 70s but in the 70s the US was a creditor Nation now the US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world so I would suspect that the inflation is going to be much worse before this is over I don't really like it but I know that the world has done this before and whenever politicians print a lot of money somebody has to pay well then you know what are your present views on the United States both um economically and and geopolitically you know well the U.S is the largest economy uh and it has printed a huge amount of money it's the largest debtor in world history and that's going to present problems 100 years ago Britain was the number one country in the world there was no number two but Andy 50 years later Britain went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by the IMF when I say bankrupt I mean literally they couldn't pay their bills the IMF flew to London and saved them so this sort of thing has happened before it's happening to the U.S it's not a good time to be a young American it's a good time to be an old American you know I don't have to pay for all this but my children are going to have a big problem sometime in their lifetime because of this staggering amount of debt that has been built up in the U.S absolutely uh do you see what you see the geopolitical position as America do you see it maintain its policemen of the world situation the superpower or do you think this could be uh usurp not just by China but other nations well no countries stayed on top forever you know Rome was great once Egypt was great once everybody Britain was great ones but they all lost their position so it's going to happen to the U.S of whether we like it or not as I said we're now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world that has always led to problems for countries so the us is going to lose its position if you study history it's not going to lose it this year but you know it's going to lose it because we built up so much debt and unfortunately we're making enemies with our currency and many other things so don't particularly like saying it but certainly the U.S will not be on top 100 years from now so yeah um so uh what Commodities uh do you think are worth backing at the moment and which ones do you see maybe as uh uh potential shorts as uh anything in particular on your radar or even currencies I don't see any shorts up in the Commodities Market they're probably awesome I'm just too lazy to know um agriculture is very depressed and I mean you know the average age of farmers in America is nearly 60 years old the average age of farmers in Japan is over 60.
so the world's got problems coming in agriculture whether we like it or not but of course problems also are opportunities so if one can figure out which agricultural products are the cheapest one's going to make a lot of money but that's probably true of silver too and other things copper you know the uh energy of electric automobiles used several times more copper than gasoline automobiles so they're going to be many opportunities as the world changes and um do you still see gold then as the potential potential sort of Safe Haven or do you think that's moving more to silver or that is silver more an industrial um uh commodity that would be in demand I don't like particularly like to use the word safe when I talk about Investments are there not many safe Investments that I've ever come across but silver is much cheaper than gold on a historic basis gold is near its all-time high so it was over 50 percent below its all times so if I would buy and I own both if I were buying one today I would prefer to buy silver but I will buy more of both before this is over uh through for thousands of years they have been places that people turn to when they get worried you know and I'm an old peasant as peasants keep some silver in the closet we have some gold under the bed you know we know that we're going to need it someday eventually right and um how do you see the role of cryptocurrencies um unfolding from this point in time we've seen a boom and bust already uh where do you see them heading next is there a place for them to continue um uh you know do they have any intrinsic value but I don't see any intrinsic value but they are trading uh vehicles for a lot of people some have already gone to zero as you knows and disappeared but Bitcoin and some of the others are of active trading vehicles and if you're a good Trader and I'm not so I don't trade them but if you are a good Trader you might make a lot of money trading some of the cryptocurrencies now the board of course say that they're going to be money in my view that is not going to happen because it's on and by the way most countries in the world now are working on computer money call it whatever we want to because they want computer money it's much more efficient it's cheaper they don't have to print it or transport it or guard it or anything else but I don't see that the US not Washington is never going to say okay guys this is money now but if you want to use that money you can use that money too that's not the way watching them think that's not the way politicians think they want control they want their Monopoly and they certainly want all the money on the computer because then they'll know everything we do I'm not particularly fond of that but I'm just telling you they love it and they're going to do as much as they can to control all of us and our money sure and then historically uh Commodities have been dollar denominated and traded in US Dollars uh we're starting to see things like oil move you know uh Shanghai for example uh backed by the brics Nations Etc to some extent uh how big a threat do you see this move away from Dollar denominated currencies well I know it's going to happen it's always happened as I said before you know once upon a time it was a British pound once upon a time it was the French franc once upon a time it was a lot of things and the US is now the largest debtor in the world and it's getting worse which fundamentally of course makes people some people wonder about the dollar but also the dollars politicizing the currency if they get angry at you they say Andy you cannot use dollars anymore or they just take them away from you so many people even our friends are starting to say wait a minute wait a minute that's not the way this is supposed to work currency is supposed to be neutral well I'm afraid Washington is driving people to look for competitors and with their both political and economic policies they're making more and more people trying to find a competitor it's not here yet don't worry don't throw your dollars out the window yet but there may come a time certainly in my lifetime and certainly in my children's lifetime right right so uh well thank you is there anything else you'd like to share with us any other views you have on anything uh that would be of interest to uh all our followers one last point on that last point you know in the 1920s it was the pound sterling that was the world currency and then Britain got deeply Undead went bankrupt and people moved away from the pound sterling and I again I don't like it Andy but as I read history everybody who has been on top with their currency at one time or another has lost that position so it's going to happen to the U.S and if we think it's not we should read more history absolutely so it sounds like uh subconsciously you're using a lot of Cycles here because that's exactly what we like to look at uh the rise and fall of Empires and uh Nations and so on as well as in the market so since if that's when you mean Cycles yes of course history is full of cycles and whether it's wheat or countries or currencies they happen and we all should know about them absolutely and um we really appreciate you um providing the time to talk to uh to us so thank you so much uh thank you Andy it's been fun let's do it again sometime we would love to thank you so much thank you thank you bye-bye thank you bye-bye foreign
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