저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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블루칩 중 낙폭과대 종목을 매수해 되돌림 시 수익을 노리는 전략 제시. 상위50 또는 ROE 20%(10년 평균) 기준 107개 블루칩 선정. 외국인 재진입 시점은 기업이익 15~20% 성장 시 가능성 언급, 하반기 실적 개선 기대. 파생상품 규제는 개인 자금의 현물 이동으로 이어지기 어렵다고 봄. 지수 상승 여력과 장기 투자 인내 강조.
다듬은 글
it's a very stringent Norm uh so if you have size and 20% return you are called Blue Chip every company has some rough patches and in their journey to create lacks and lacks of course of wealth they have rough time when it makes a comeb back to 100 it's a doubler see the trick isn't buying I'm saying trick I don't know any formula for that but the trick isn't buying close to the point really little downside but huge upside a symmetric upside that's the basic game we are trying to play in your view what would prompt FIS to come back to India at such elevated levels besides what they done trading and you're losing money on your own what the government or regat can do hello everyone we have with us today one of the Wizards of Dalal Street and someone who's very famous for his investment Mantra buy right and sit tight so he is none other than Mr ramdev agrawal he is the chairman and co-founder of MOA oal Financial Services it is a pleasure sitting here with you sir sir to begin with uh I mean at a time when most Market mavens are touting blue chips as a safety net uh your wealth creation report is titled uh creating weal through bruist Blue Chips so I mean it sounds more like rising from the ashes uh so what is your key to profiting from these uh bruised Blue Chips like you call it and what is the outcome that you expect in terms of returns yeah so there are two three things in this one is that how do you define Blue Chips I mean blue chip is very uh what do you call it's a story word but uh what does it mean actually you know so this is about uh very established large corporations with leadership stability and prosperity but we have defined it as a top 50 companies of nifty and companies with more than uh 20% return on equity for 10 years 10 years average Equity of it's a very stringent Norm uh so if you have size and 20% return you are called doip so we have picked up companies from Top 250 companies so it gives some size and profitability of at least 20% average Ro for 10 years that gives the stability and some kind of competive edge the company has so uh so we we have come across about 107 companies out of 250 which you have titled as blue chips and uh so then uh so what happens is that no Blue Chip has a every company has some rough patches and in their journey to create lacks and lacks of course of wealth they have rough time and that is a called bruis bruising time so and the BR bruise can happen because of internal as well as external reasons for some reason or maybe just the market market external reason internal reason you get bruised and the bruising can happen as much as 50 60 70% of the stock price and on top of it Market is also very bad then the bruising is complete so 100 rupe uh stock you can get it for 30 40 50 bucks but it it sets the tone for a asymmetric payoff so if the stock has fallen by say 50% it means 100 stock has fallen to 50 now when Ian we believe that since it's a blue chip it will make a comeb back to 100 when it makes a come back to 100 it's a doubler you know so if it doubles in next two years it is 40% return if it doubles in 3 years it gives a 25% return so and by chance it has Follow by say 75% then it can be 3x in 3 four years so that gives you time also for the recovery and your return is also anywhere between 25 to 30 40 50% depending on a little bit of luck and that point of time you buy see the trick isn't buying I'm saying trick I don't have any formula for that but the trick isn't buying close to the point of Maximum pessimism in the stock but they Blue Chips so they're not going to die so your money is safe I mean you you'll have very very little downside but huge upside a symmetric upside that's the basic game we are trying to play so actually um out of curiosity so the report says that financials is the biggest wealth destroyer and the largest wealth Creator as well and this is especially more intriguing because financials is looked at as a big theme for 2025 yeah so can you elaborate a little on that yeah so the study covers also so the bruising part is a thematic so don't mix that with what you're asking right now it looks as if you know both are same no that bruising is a theme so that's a separate subject now what you're asking for is what happened in Last 5 Years uh Last 5 Years say ICI and lot of big Banks they made lot of money at the same time there was a bust in the yes bank and bundan and I think there were one I think there was Third Bank so there were two three Banks which lost a lot of money in fact ban lost the largest amount of money I think 60 70,000 they lost so you have a wealth creators in the banks and you have the we destroyers in the banks so so that keeps happening that is possible so you also very early on uh identified hero motop as a blue chip opportunity so in today's landcape do you see some similar return potential in any of these newly listed companies or maybe IPO bound companies yeah so that time markets were also very cheap in '90s and all markets were very young small uh and also uh there were not too many institutional investors MFS were not there and so it was more of a individual investing so markets are very reasonable today Market is full of FIS dis insurance companies very comp large complex liquid but that takes away the lot of inefficiency of the market you know the undervaluation of the market is not as deep as what it was in 95 96 so yes you do come across some ideas but I don't think it is that that cheaper market now you know so in general getting stocks like uh what we got in 95 96 uh HOV for just about th000 crores when it was making already profits of upwards of 100 crores it is not that easy to find those kind of a iconic leadership company with 30 25 30% Roe is very tough now markets are not that uh easy um with the recent announcements of sebbi on you know tightening uh the fno regulations so uh do you think that could lead to money moving from fno to cash Market unlikely I mean I would like to I would like that to happen I don't think that is going to happen because uh both are two different things Al together the people who are coming to F Market they have a different mindset and the people I they're basically impatient to make money and the guys who come to the cash Market they very patient guys to make money I mean simple I mean they're willing to sit for 2 years 3 years 4 years yeah they don't want to sit for 2 3 hours yeah so that's the kind of difference so at the margin something but I don't think it is going to happen like that do you see more action happening or regulatory action happening because a lot of these retail Traders majority of them are earning less than 5 lakh a year so do you think that the the capital regulator would uh step in and you know to protect the interests of these retail Traders what can they do besides what you're trading and you're losing money on your own what the government or can do yeah God only help can God even God cannot help so they have to offend themselves in the sense that they have see the unbid expansion of this activity they have really clearly come heavily on them so from daily expiry they made it monthly expiry so that has taken the Fizz out of the market yeah volumes must be I mean 30 40% down 50% down so yes that that is going to happen but I regulator can do anything about it they can make it even tighter you know uh the expiries and margin who what can trade what cannot trade those kind of things they can do but I don't think they can decide the fortune of every indis so uh while FIS have been net sellers uh retail investors have have taken the bait in and they've increasingly they are investing towards Equity as an asset class so uh you have an active role in one of the leading uh retail stock broking and AMC uh in India businesses in India so do you see this as a concerning Trend that retail investors are picking Equity Prime as a preference a preferable asset class this is an opportunity for us expanding the market more than marrier I mean we're getting 34 million customers every month and it's just expanding the market so you can do more trade you can do more issuance you can manage more wealth we can manage more money so there's all kinds of opportunity because 4 million customers are coming every month and maybe small amount of money each person but it's just expanding the pit so all the players who are there in the pit I mean they should be very happy so there are no concerns about maybe Euphoria of because of retail investors increasing no no Market is buyant and that's why we are able to face this uh strong selling by FIS but uh to that extent it it has become actually much more healthier and non-c corrupting Market very very solid am it doesn't go down maybe how much it will go up is different but at least it has become very resilient so that's a good development so you've also mentioned earlier that foreign investors can pivot to maybe China or Korea and if they re-enter India there would be a hefty premium to the to that re-entry perhaps when nift is at maybe 30,000 so uh in your view what would prompt F to come back to India at such elevated levels I think if there is a coer dinnings grow of 15 20% they will come in any case they will come I don't have any doubts that one day they will come as allocation goes down and Market goes up they have to allocate little more to India because India is no more a very small country I mean we are about 3 and a half 4% of the global GDP global market cap uh their allocations might be still one one and half 2% so they're under on India but right now there's too much of chasing America like America has become 7 5% of the world market cap so lot of money is still I mean yesterday also US market was very strong so money from all over the world is getting sucked into us so none of the see Indian money has to stay in India because we're not allowed to send out other we also send some more money out so clearly India is India will keep doing well because it has own domestic investors even if the Foreigner sell but someday the tide will turn and foreigners would like to come M come back and have some action in India at that point of time Indian investors are already there so from whom will buy the sell typically foreigners they love to buy when the domestics are selling now domestics are continuously buyer whether even if in fact when the foreigners are selling domestics are buyers correct so when domestic also wants to buy and foreigners also wants to buy so what will happen only PR can sell yeah yeah so then the prices will be much higher yeah so uh I mean we've seen money moving uh from India to China and then vice versa and now we see that South Korea is facing some bit of uncertainty do you see this uh money flowing from Korea to India South Korea to India I don't know I have no idea I have no idea on this how it works uh so I mean you also mentioned about corporate earnings growth so uh the economy is slowing down uh there are a host of issues with a widening fiscal deficit it and private kex not picking up as expected so how do you see these things shipping up earnings growth in the coming quarters no I think some what the authorities are saying that second half will be better and they'll take they'll take measures like rate Cuts or or government capex build up and the next budget then red cycle so a lot of things are going to happen so and first half was definitely impacted by the heat wave election and all kinds of government def government expenditure and all so I think a lot of those things will come back here we have bumper Monsoon so the post post crop you know kind of buying will also come record number of marriages are there so all those things will happen so I I hope the second half will be better uh so what is the one myth about investing that you want to bust for retail investors and beginners alike don't speculate invest in the companies as I said bring patience you know the one thing is you can bring money but also also bring some patience you'll mint this this is a market if you're not speculating you cannot lose you will make 10 12% 15% but and you bring Brilliance also then you'll make 15 20% it's uh it's a market of 15% and with little extra for you can make 18% which is four year double what more do you want when you go to the banks you make 5% it takes 15 years to double your money here you can double in four years so like every seasoned investor has made mist along the way uh can you share one investing mistake that has probably you know had a lasting impression on you philosophically your approach wise I don't I we committed so many mistakes you keep learning from them you know I think backing a bad promoter uh you know I mean high price of course hurts you but some rate gets corrected but a a bad promoter is a permanent problem so we should not knowingly you should not back a bad promoter in the company okay okay and one book that you read this year that has a very profound you know impact uh on you and maybe like it reflected not this year I mean immediately what comes to my mind is strategy beyond hawy stic that book we wrote the we last year yeah is great book it's a must read for any corporate follower anything that you maybe want to highlight any instance that resonated with you no just the you want to read the book yeah thank you and that that brings us to the end of this episode with the maret pundit thanks for watching in thank you
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