저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 정책의 배경을 설명한다. 2000년대 중국의 WTO 가입 이후 기업들의 차익거래로 미국 중산층 제조업이 공동화됐고, 미국 소비가 세계 경제를 떠받친다고 주장한다. 관세는 이 불균형에 대한 반작용이며, 애플이 중국에서 생산해 미국에서 연 5천만 대를 파는 구조를 예로 든다. 크립토는 영상 후반 자막상 언급되나 구체적 주장은 없음.
다듬은 글
But this is a first among equals country on every dimension culturally, artistically, economically, militarily. And we take it for granted. And so when you think about Apple for their bottom line in their P&L, would they love to have maybe, you know, an easier time to sell phones all around the world?
Sure. But it's much more valuable for Apple to make the phones in China for as little as possible and get them to the United States where they can sell 50 million of them every year. In this compelling discussion from the flagrant podcast, Chamath Palihapatia dives into the intricacies of Trump's tariff strategies, the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies, and the undercurrents of market conspiracies.
He sheds light on how these elements intertwine, potentially reshaping the global economic framework. Before diving in, remember to like, subscribe, and share this channel. Now, let's hear more from Shamath Polyhapatia. Let's let's look at your uh Air Force Ones or your Dunks that you guys are wearing there or your Converse.
Those things are made or Jordans. Those things are made um outside of the United States, even though the company that makes them is an American company. And what happens is they're made over there and then they're shipped to the United States and then they're sold to you guys somehow, right? Um, and you would think that that's all fine and good because you're like, well, hold on.
I'm, you know, this is an American company. I'm supporting an American company. And it turns out that the details are a little bit more complicated than that. So starting in about the year 2000, what happened was there was this everybody thought that the right thing to do was to push every country in the world to this form of capitalism and they looked at countries like China and they were like how do we make China more capitalist and you would say well why would we do that and the governing logic at the time was if they're more capitalist, they'll also become more democratic.
If they are more democratic, they are more predictable the way that we normally think about countries. So, let's not repeat a cold war. Let's not repeat maybe some other political regime in the 40s or 50s or 60s. And so, what happened was we let China into the WTO, the World Trade Organization. And what that allowed corporations to do is basically a an enormous form of arbitrage.
So let's say that those Jordans were made in the United States and you were paying a worker 25 bucks an hour to work on a line to make that shoe and then you would send it to Foot Locker and sell it. I'm just being very simple just to kind of explain this example. But now instead of having to pay sort of any typical form of taxes, Nike after the year 2000 was able to ask the question, where else could I make this Jordan?
And the Chinese raised their hand and they said, hey guys, we have these really great factories. We have extremely good workers and we can do it for much cheaper than 25 bucks an hour. And so what does Nike do? they send the job over there. Take that one narrow example and apply it across every industry you can imagine from shoes to iPhones and everything in between.
And what has essentially happened over the last 25 years is we have hollowed out an enormous part of the middle class economy in the United States. and we've explained it away by saying, "Hey, we don't want to do that kind of work. Instead, we're gonna, you know, like all of us, like we'll do a podcast or, you know, somebody will be a consultant." Like you'll you'll just go up the stack, right?
They'll they'll say up the stack. And so over the last 25 years, that's been happening. And all of these other countries have benefited from America's large S. And the reason you can say that is we are the big buyer of record for everything, right? We have the largest economy. The way our economy works is we are all buying All kinds of All manner of it.
From that water bottle to that shirt to that hat. 80% of our economy is just consumers buying stuff. And the rest of the world makes an enormous amount of money by feeding that beast. And so you would say, okay, well, what's wrong with that? Now the cost of Jordans is much cheaper. The cost of that, you know, those jeans are cheaper.
Life is good. Except it's not, it's more complicated than that, which is then when we turn around and we try to sell our product into those same countries, instead of it being allowed to just come in, so that you know, uh, I'll make an example. Let's say that hat is made in the United States and we want to sell it to somebody in Cambodia or Vietnam.
The same way that those dunks enter the United States with no tax, we would expect that that hat can go into Cambodia and Vietnam with no tax. But that turns out to not be the case. I think that for every country, the answer to that question is different. But it typically starts with how can we generate revenue for ourselves?
I don't think they they they have a competitive, you know, New York Yankees hat manufacturer in Vietnam for the record. But it's just a policy that allows them to make money off of the United States in two ways, right? They make money by making stuff there, sending it to here where we all buy it and the dollars go back, and then they make money in a different way, which is whenever we try to sell our products there, they can tax it on the way in.
I think what the what the the logic was was back to what I said earlier. There was there was this thought that America is doing really well. We can allow a little bit of this leakage because of the quote unquote greater good. The greater good being let's get these countries out of poverty. Let's get them, you know, embracing capitalism, democracy.
I think I I think it's a combination of benevolence as well as there was some strategic rationale. Um you know like some sometimes you could make a claim that allowing these countries to profit was like a national security thing right like hey they'll be there for us if you know we ever get into a spat with xyz other countries.
So there was a whole host of complex reasons, but the net result, Andrew, was that this dynamic was happening, but it had been happening for a long time. As we've explored Chimath's insights on tariffs and their global impact, let's pivot to his perspectives on the cryptocurrency revolution and the conspiracies influencing market dynamics.
He articulates the transformative potential of digital currencies and unpacks the narratives that may be steering investor sentiment. Now, let's listen to what Chimamath has to say. Possibly, but then, you know, I would say, well, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Um, it can't be a one-way ratchet on globalism and free trade where it's like, you know, you're going to take our stuff, but we're not going to take your stuff.
I think to be honest with you, it's a it's probably driven a lot by revenue. It's like it was tolerated. Nobody Nobody pushed back. Nobody pushed back, right? Because again, we would say yes, it's happening, but and some politician would insert this statement about democracy and capitalism and long-term national security or what have you as the justification.
Nobody would want any tariff in an ideal scenario. But now you have to think about like what is the government of the United States's responsibility. Well, I think they are pretty violently pushing back. Um, everybody that hasn't been exempted um I think is pushing back. So, and what they're trying to point out is like, hey, listen, like these tariffs have a real price.
Let's be honest. How many Chinese can afford to buy a $3,000 iPhone versus how many Americans can buy a $3,000 iPhone? And the reality is that when you factor in, again, this goes back to what I said before. Do not underestimate the absolute gargantuan large s and kickassidness of America. Like it's easy to slag it, but this is a first among equals country on every dimension, culturally, artistically, economically, militarily, and we take it for granted.
And so when you think about Apple for their bottom line and their P&L, would they love to have maybe, you know, an easier time to sell phones all around the world? Sure. But it's much more valuable for Apple to make the phones in China for as little as possible and get them to the United States where they can sell 50 million of them every year.
To watch the full interview, check out the link in the description. Chimath Palihapitia envisions a future where strategic tariffs, the rise of cryptocurrencies, and underlying market forces converge to redefine economic paradigms. We'd love your perspective. Are tariffs a masterstroke in economic strategy or a double-edged sword?
Is the crypto surge a fleeting trend or the dawn of a new financial era? Thank you for tuning into Only the Savvy. If you enjoyed this discussion, please subscribe, like, and share our video for more engaging content exploring the innovative world of decentralized technologies. SIM swap fraud is sweeping the globe and your mobile security is at risk.
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