저자: The Financial Times · 외국인
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um look the government has done you know uh depending on how technical you want to get six or seven forms of quantitative easing since the great financial crisis so we could have picked any one of those moments and said this is bitcoin's moment and what i'm trying to get across to you is that you know it's there there is no seminal event and i think that people waiting for a seminal event um probably create more speculation than is healthy for bitcoin um i think that you know this is a parade of terribles it's uh it's a bunch of small things that eventually add together bring down the entire you know way in which we think the the financial infrastructure of the world works we will lose credibility in it there will not be a single thing laura that you will be able to point to this will be the sum of many many bad decisions um and it's the compounding of bad decisions and um you know historians will try to pinpoint an event and i think it'll be not worth the time i just think that this is in a it's a pattern and you know when you see the pattern i think you just have to be prepared to hedge it be on the other side of it hope the pattern stops because quite honestly if your bitcoin bet pays off it will be catechismically destructive for the world um and that'll have enormous consequences to many people that we all know and care about who weren't hedged in bitcoin um and so you almost don't want it to happen um but you literally only can see one path to its success you don't see any other reason for it to succeed even in a world where um not everything else comes crashing down not really um you know i mean i think that people could claim that it's a more frictionless payment mechanism or payment rails i don't really buy that um i think that there are much easier to use products that eventually will become you know uh virtual payment mechanisms that connect the world whether it's whatsapp or the cash app or venmo or we pay all of these things will eventually be threaded together in an underlying framework uh that'll allow seamless money transfer zero cost instantaneously um you know in a ledger that's that's uh that gives you a sense of security and transparency all of these things i think will eventually happen and so the use case for bitcoin i think uh become less and less as a product and more and more as an instrument and uh again then you have to think about what the underlying value of the instrument is you know people try to make this case for gold all the time that there's an industrial use for gold and i would say maybe but overwhelmingly folks use it as as an instrument to hedge uh other parts of their assets and other parts of their portfolio similarly we will make the case ad infinitum for the industrial value of bitcoin but the overwhelming use case for the most people will be as a financial hedge and i think that that's good enough because that's what will get our you know quote-unquote the you know the proverbial sort of grandmother grandfather to buy this thing is that concept because they can understand that much more easily than they can understand distributed ledgers and you know seamless payment gateways it's it's all a little gobbledygook at some level right and out of curiosity when you first heard about bitcoin did it take you a while to understand its potential because a lot of people say oh at first i dismissed it and i wondered a few also there's a there's a well-known person in the bitcoin ecosystem his name is wences uh casares he was the one that introduced it to me in 2010 we were actually going to las vegas for his 40th birthday and that's when he pitched me on it and i remember landing uh three days later and i called my family office and said you know buy a million bitcoin that's how i started and uh it was you know 80 bucks or something at the time and it just sounded kind of really interesting uh but then it took me a few years to really understand it you know um i didn't totally understand all the mechanics of it and to be honest with you i've forgotten most of the mechanics now um you know i studied it at the moment i made an underwriting decision to buy and then to never think about it again um and by and large i've never thought about it again i mean i i remember my family office flipped out when you know bitcoin was twenty thousand a coin they're like uh and i was like guys don't tell me i don't want to know this is like just take it off the balance sheet don't ever look at it keep it at the cost and uh you know don't get psychologically affected by this number it doesn't mean anything and then it went back down to 3000 or something and they call me again they're like uh and i was like guys i told you it just doesn't matter what's going on here um and so you know i don't know you know where it is now nine thousand eight thousand ten thousand whatever um i think yeah i don't uh i couldn't tell you what the price is well i was curious you did say at one point that your funds owned almost five percent of all bitcoins i don't believe that's the case anymore so i was wondering what percentage of bitcoins you owe now i don't i don't to be honest i couldn't tell you i don't know um but yeah we um you know we were pretty aggressive buyers i think you know we were also sellers of some um in the fund uh because i bought some in my fund as well um for for my for myself and my lps i bought for myself personally um you know i have a bunch of coins that i gave to uh dcg so that they could stand up the grayscale etf um and so you know uh i don't know um but um yeah i'm pretty happy with sort of you know what i own i kind of think about it as like i said uh i should i should be one percent hedged and uh i try to track that um just to make sure that that's still nominally the case like meaning that you rebalance uh i haven't actually actively rebalanced i've gotten distributions from other folks um and so when i get more i just kind of you know give it to grayscale quite honestly just because i don't want to deal with the coins themselves i'd rather just get back shares in the etf because it's just easier for me to manage so i don't i don't want to have access to the bitcoin uh i just think that's a huge administrative and logistical burden i don't want to bear at some level it's also a security thing that i don't want to take on so you know that's grayscale's problem um or coin basis problem uh yeah yeah well one thing i was also going to ask you i know you just said you don't really watch the bitcoin markets but did you hear about how um bitcoin also took a massive hit at the same time that panic about the coronavirus was hitting the stock market and i wondered what that uh if that affected your thesis that this was an uncorrelated hedge well it i mean i think that that more reinforced that for right now people who are day trading or speculating they're the same people that are day trading or speculating other financial markets and so you know it'll suffer the same psychological ebbs and flows and so you know when people were selling off equities um it's because they wanted more liquidity whether it was because of margin pressure or because that they had a directional view in the stock market and i think that's the same thing with bitcoin because a lot of the day-to-day market participants are actively trading the same way they would trade any other stock or bond or commodity and so it wasn't surprising in my mind that that bitcoin traded off uh when equities traded off it just goes to show you that that there is a portion of people that view it as a hedge and will never look at it and then there's a much larger portion to be honest who view it as a financial instrument that can that you can you know speculate on and make money on in short term increments and inasmuch as those people are greater than or equal to the number of people who view it as a hedge it will sort of map to other financial markets when when there's a drawdown in equities you'll probably see a drawdown in bitcoin when there's a rally in equities you'll see a rally in bitcoin and by and large i suspect that that's what we've seen um and that speaks more of the short-term nature of the people in the in the asset class today um but that probably will change um over time as well because again you know when you get sort of like the long tail adoption of this um so that when there's i don't know uh hundreds of thousands millions tens of millions hundreds of millions of people that own it um they will be more like me you know lazy holders they bought it for a very different reason than speculation and they neither have the time or the inclination to care what it does on a daily basis uh and that that will be very good for bitcoin by far the best investment you can make is in yourself if you invest in yourself nobody can take it away from
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