저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
현재 시장은 축적(횡보) 국면이며 이익 개선·GST 개혁·금리 인하 등 호재에도 지수는 최고점 대비 5~7% 하락 상태. 대형주·일부 중형주는 밸류에이션 부담이 크고, 최근 IPO 과열과 상장 후 급락 사례를 지적. 개인은 소수 종목 스토리에 집중 투자해야 하며, 장기적으로는 인내가 중요하다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Vijay Kedia is the one who knows how to belt out the hits. Now she is a hit machine. So that is Kedia ji. And I'm not just talking about your singing. I am talking about the stock picks. I'm Not Just Stock Picks. Nowadays, Kedia ji's focus is not only on the listed space. Also in unlisted space. So we are very excited to join us on our NDTV channel and launch the Diwali edition and in true style you have kicked off the festivities.
Tell me, is that festive feeling coming from within the market right now or is it having to be applied a little superficially ? so thanks. [Sound of clearing throat] Thank you very much for inviting me here on this auspicious month of Diwali and it [sound of clearing throat] is always nice to be interviewed, you know, by Tamanna.
So your question is that I feel that a big mixed trend is going on in the market. So we have been celebrating Diwali for three years. We have celebrated a grand Diwali in 2021, 2022, 2023 and half of 2024. So this market is in a bit of a consolidation phase. It is possible that this market will continue for some more time and then after that, it is possible that next year there will be some good prospects and some good sun will shine.
No no, but what's the problem? If you look from an investor's point of view, the government has reformed GST. You have a sense that quarterly results are going to be better. The problems related to trade war are also reducing a bit. Now let's see what happens to the tariffs. Consumption is increasing.
RBI is supporting. The interest rate is decreasing. But nothing seems to be moving markets. Why do you think so? So you water for that please yes no whatever it is time now 7:00 pm. Not the time for water, green tea is not at 7:00 PM, why laugh brother, water can also be drunk after 7:00 PM, it is not like that so as per the feeling of the person, whatever was in his mind, he caught that sentence accordingly, sorry, so it seems to me that all the things are already like this, the market is saying that they are already discounted, see the market grows only when there is a surprise in the market, so whatever you are saying right now, earnings are coming.
Anyway, the earnings are also a big mix. It is not that the earnings of every company are very good or some are very destructive. Nothing like this is happening anywhere. And reforms like GST etc. have come. Ok? Of course, these were very long pending reforms which have come. It will start making a difference now.
Understand that there will be a difference in this quarter when the sale happens. I read somewhere that this time the wedding season is going to come, after November till February, whoever is going to get trapped in this, they are not going to get married, that means [laughs] the market says that this time Rs 12-14 lakh crore is going to be spent on weddings.
Just think, there are not 12-14 lakh crore people in a completely different dimension, otherwise it is the same thing. It seems like everyone is spending money somewhere except the market. A lot of money is coming into the IPO. Cars are selling well. The wedding season is going very well. Like you are saying but it is not showing in the markets.
So I'm wondering if there is now a disconnect between the real economy and what's happening in the markets is it a valuation issue. Much of the interest has gone into the private equity space. Why is it like this? No because I don't think there is any disconnect between the market price and whatever is happening in the economy.
I think it is already in the price. Stocks are not cheap. You know what happened inside the market just now? As you said, off course people have also turned their attention towards private equity. People, look at the IPO, what madness is going on inside the IPO. Do you consider this madness? Oh, 100% madness.
What kind of subscribers are there, later they are down 30%, 40%, 50%. Who do you hold responsible for this? Is it the company that is raising the money or the people who are putting in the money to the merchant banker? No, of course, I will say that it is the job of the merchant banker for those who are investing the money.
See, if a lawyer saves someone even by lying, then he is a lawyer, it is his job to advocate. I am not saying that the merchant banker lies, his job is to do banking, that poor fellow is doing his job. Passengers should protect their luggage themselves, it is written in the railways that you will leave your luggage here and there, you will go for a walk, you will get down to fill water, you will go to the toilet, then it comes to know that your luggage is empty and locked, then you have to protect yourself there, madam, it is a simple matter.
So now the government also sells liquor. It also levies excise duty on liquor and also makes it written that drinking alcohol will be prohibited. So brother, why do you sell? So selling is their business. So why do you warn ? It is their morality to warn. So this is inside the stock market. So the merchant banker is doing his job.
If you [sound of clearing throat] are giving me money then I can also open a paan shop and take money. The giver should know why I am doing this. Ultimately, where will they go and whether they will get the benefit or not. So till now whatever was happening, everything was going smoothly. This is happening for the first time that all these IPOs have started going down.
The shares that are available now will give people a great opportunity to learn. Now it seems that maybe it will be a little less. So the question then is if you are saying that markets are overvalued. If someone wants to invest money now, where should he invest it? If they look at the blue chips overvalued.
The market cap of mid-caps, which are called mid-caps, has increased a lot. Valuations are not settling. At least here it seems that you may get some opportunity in the new company. The market cap of blue chips and overvalued mid caps, also known as mid caps, has increased significantly. Valuations are not settling.
At least here it seems that you may get some opportunity in the new company. So where to invest the money? Because whatever you choose comes in the news that you have invested in a company and then its stock starts running up. So what is that formula of yours through which you make the selection? No, the formula is of course not like this [sound of clearing throat], it seems that the shares I buy go up and then they fall, it is not like that.
So and in a bull market Everybody is a genius in a bull market. So I kept getting bull market and I also kept considering myself as Shana, that yes, it is okay, I am also Shana. So that market is the biggest and most prestigious market, madam, let us understand this, sorry, what was your question, if not then how do you choose?
You're saying there's madness in IPOs. The market is overvalued. Not everyone can go into private equity. So how do you choose? So this is it, see what is there here, it is the same thing that a lotus blooms in the mud, so what you have to do is that right now I am not a fund manager that I have to make a portfolio of 200 companies or 500 companies, I have to invest in 10-15 companies, so what I have to do is that there are 6000 companies, I have to choose only one or two companies, what we are talking about does not mean that all the companies are overvalued and all the companies are undervalued, there is nothing like that in the market, so I have to choose a story, a good story in the market, we are talking index wise, yes the index and the general trend is that no one is earning money in the market right now.
This is just an index, you can understand that it is around 5-7% from the all-time high and the common man is not earning money in the market right now. But if you maintain patience and do it properly, you will learn not to leave it and understand that I do not want to invest in your company. So you will get one story out of 10 or one story out of 100 in this market also.
How many proposals do you get in a day? Regarding investing in the company, yes I was going to think that I have come wearing kurta varta, is she getting me married [laughs] so today is Karwa Chauth brother what are you talking about [laughs] regarding investing, yes then tell me a little clearly, you are a journalist [laughs] it is like this with me and Tamanna, not a little, ma'am, a lot of proposals come, one proposal must come every day and but right now I will say that I am not there [laughs] I do not meet people at all.
So many proposals come. This is the best and most interesting proposal for investment. A company that you found very interesting and a company that you found a little silly, what is this idea? Tell me both. No, look, like [sound of clearing throat] I just invested in a company. I had invested in a cyber security company five-six months ago.
It is an Ahmedabad based company. And I liked that. I also liked the motor. I also liked his business plan. I also like that sector. That company got listed a few days ago, 101 days ago, so I make artificial plants like leaves and leaves and they must have two or three shops. So I said that it is an artificial plant, I will take care of it.
I have to open more shops. I have to bring its IPO. So I said brother, just now Phool Patti Mare said that there is nothing like this against his dhajja. But such proposals also come. So I said brother, I do not do all this IPO YPO work. I don't even invest in all IPOs. So many such proposals come. A man came and I met him somewhere and he said that I have opened six-seven restaurants and he too has opened six-seven restaurants and his turnover would be around Rs.
7-8 crore per year and he also wants to bring an IPO. So if he also wants to become Joto or McDonald, then this kind of IPO can come for him also. IPO of such people can also come. So those people are also very upset that I have to bring an IPO in the market. Otherwise, perhaps two things are happening in this.
On one hand, this frenzy is because people's appetite has increased. Those who are entrepreneurs, they want to grow and the other people are looking for opportunity. So how to bridge that gap ? Do you think at the end of the day it's the market that will provide that comfort? You talked about patience, what do you think is the outlook for the next 12 years?
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