저자: JoshuaWang · 외국인
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Collins Foods(ASX:CKF) 매수 근거를 Peter Lynch 방식(이해 가능성, 합리적 가격의 성장 GARP, 장기 투자)으로 설명하는 영상이다. 사업 구조: 호주 KFC 252개 매장(매출 약 9억 달러, 동일매장 매출 성장률 12.9%, EBITDA 마진 22.2%), 유럽 KFC 46개(독일 17, 네덜란드 29; 동일매장 매출 -0.6%, EBITDA 마진 7.3%), Taco Bell 16개(매출 약 2,800만 달러, 손익분기 수준). Taco Bell은 전체 매출의 3% 미만이라 영상은 주로 KFC 호주·유럽에 초점을 둔다. 사업 이해: 음식점 성공은 가격·편의성·맛으로 결정되며, 아시아 음식점(예: Papa Rich)은 숙련 인력과 원재료 조달이 어려워 KFC보다 운영이 힘들다고 설명한다. 닭고기는 수요가 꾸준히 늘고 가격도 장기간 안정적이라는 점을 근거로 든다. 성장 전망: 호주 매장 연 9~12개 출점, FY28까지 최소 55개 매장 목표. 전자상거래는 KFC 호주 매출의 14%이며, 디지털 메뉴보드 설치로 인건비 절감을 기대한다. 유럽은 FY22까지 2~4개 출점, 부진 매장 인수 전략, 2026년까지 사업 두 배 목표를 제시했다. 밸류에이션: 현금흐름 기반 내재가치 주당 11.27호주달러, 현재 주가 대비 약 4% 상승 여지로 제시하며 안전마진은 거의 없다고 평가한다. 최근 12개월 PER 약 22.27배, 순차입 배수 1.33배로 재무 여력이 있다고 본다. 장기적으로 이익 성장률에 가까운 연 약 10% 수익을 기대하며, 해당 주식을 실제 포트폴리오에 편입했다고 밝힌다. 리스크: 건강식 트렌드, 유럽 코로나 규제 영향, 밸류에이션 축소(PER 하락) 시 주가 하락 가능성. (본 영상은 자체적으로 '오락 목적이며 투자 조언이 아니다'라고 명시.)
다듬은 글
this video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice hey guys welcome back to another video my name is josh and in today's video i wanted to share with you a stock that i recently bought on the asx now i'll be sharing with you this stock using a peter lynch approach to investing so i'll be sharing with you his philosophy on investing and explaining how this stock fits his philosophy of investing so if you enjoyed today's video be sure to hit like and subscribe but with no time wasted let's get right into the video so firstly i wanted to talk about how peter lynch actually invests and he summarizes investing into three things that he looks out for the first one is that he should only buy things that he understands secondly he wants to buy stocks at a reasonable price depending on how much growth is available so the acronym over here is garp and that stands for growth at a reasonable price and lastly peter lynch is looking to invest for the long run so he's not investing just for the next uh six or 12 months but rather he's investing for the next 10 years so it's very important to understand what you're buying in order to understand whether the price that you're paying is reasonable and whether the company will still be around in the long run so let's go over the first thing over here and that's to understand what we're buying so the stock for today that i'll be talking about is collins foods limited stock ticker c k f a s x now this is a company that has a market cap of 1.26 billion and they also do pay a dividend of 2 roughly and it's trading at 10 and 82 cents as of friday closing all right so this company operates the kfc restaurants in australia as well as germany and the netherlands and they also operate a few taco bell restaurants in australia and they are also the lead franchisor of sizzler restaurants in japan and thailand now they categorize their operations into three different categories first one is kfc australia and in kfc australia there's 252 restaurants and that generates them a revenue of 900 million dollars over the past year there was same store sales growth of 12.9 percent and they generated an ebitda margin of 22.2 so this increase in same store sales growth has been quite phenomenal especially during the covert period and the reason that they've been able to do so well is that management have continued to execute well and there's a high trust in the kfc brand during times of uncertainty australians flocked towards kfc during the year as well there was huge growth in its e-commerce sales and e-commerce sales makes up roughly 14 of kfc australia's total sales so kfc has done really well in australia however the same can't be said about kfc europe because the covert situation over there was slightly different from australia the lockdowns were more significant in europe and there were basically curfews as well as complete shutdowns of certain restaurants in europe so uh that had caused same stores sales to decline by 0.6 kfc europe has 46 restaurants 17 in germany and 29 in the netherlands uh that generates them 134.9 million dollars in revenue and they have an ebitda margin of 7.3 and lastly they also have taco bell restaurants this is a relatively new division that started in 2018 currently there's only 16 restaurants generating a revenue base of 28 million and over the past year there's a 3.9 increase in same store sales growth taco bell currently is operating an ebitda margin of roughly break even and this is still a relatively small division as you can see 28 million across a total group of over 1 billion dollars so this is less than 3 of total revenue so for this video i'll just be mainly talking about kfc australia kfc europe in general as this makes up most of the business all right so in terms of how well a fast food restaurant does it really does depend on three things that is price convenience as well as taste in terms of its costs kfc sells chicken they have staff costs involved people need to cook the chicken and sell the chicken and there's also royalties that collins has to pay to yum brands in the us because kfc is owned by yum brands the brand itself and collins is operating the kfc stores so they have to pay some kind of royalty for using that kfc brand back to the us all right now i'm gonna digress a little bit and share with you a discussion that i had with a friend who works at papa rich in case you don't know papa rich is a malaysian restaurant and there's restaurants in australia as well as new zealand the reason why i want to share with you this discussion is because i thought it shared decent insights on the restaurant industry in general maybe this might help you maybe already know this but i'm gonna share it anyway so i asked my friend if they would invest in a business like papa rich or whether they would invest in a business like kfc and my friend told me that they would rather invest in kfc because papa rich is a very difficult business and that is very similar to other restaurants out there i'm not saying papa rich is a bad business i'm saying this is very similar across other businesses that are not fast food and the reason can be summarized over here so in terms of running a asian restaurant like paparazz you need skilled staff staff that can use a walk properly and have good wok skills right to walk to cook the asian food to make it taste good and to find these type of people that have those walk skills is very difficult during lockdowns and during pandemics where no one's flying in and out especially from foreign countries so that is very hard to find skilled labor whereas with kfc you don't really need much skill involved to fry the chicken to be a kitchen hand at a kfc restaurant secondly the materials is harder to source for certain types of foods out there especially if it's foreign you might have to import these from foreign countries whereas with kfc chicken is readily available anywhere and as we can see over here the long term pricing of chicken has not really gone anywhere over the past 20 years so this is the australian retail prices of meat however i do suspect the wholesale pricing which is the pricing that collins will be able to buy that for will follow retail prices very closely as well and you can see the demand for chicken meat consumption has been increasing over the past 50 years and that is basically a function of the availability of chicken meat because it's so cheap and there's advances to technology that has reduced the cost of producing chicken meat right so that is the most consumed meat in today's society so that is understanding the business now let's take a look at growth at a reasonable price understanding the valuation of the business so we're paying a price today for the company's future growth so we need to understand what growth prospects are there for a business like collins in terms of australia there's a lot of things that the management team have already told us first of all they have already mentioned that there's going to be store development in the next year of 9 to 12 as well as a minimum of 55 stores by fy28 now another area of growth is through delivery and digitization so e-commerce makes up 14 of kfc australia sales in addition to that they're going to invest hugely in digital menu board installations and that should cover all restaurants within the next three years so that would lower the employee costs as they might not need as many people on the tills taking the orders people can just go to the kiosks and order their food there so that will drive down employee costs expanding their profit margins in terms of kfc europe they plan for store development of two to four by fy22 and they've also developed a strategy to acquire underperforming stores in europe and over the next year kfc europe should do well as rona restrictions ease and the management team is aiming for doubling of business by 2026 so that is a huge statement over here and does bode well for the future growth of the business and lastly we also have taco bell taco bell they plan to develop 9-12 in the next year the growth of this business or the success of this business really does depend on the increased consumer adoption of mexican category products so this is a relatively new division so that's something to watch out for and i see this more of an optionality for colin's stock at the moment so now i'll share with you my intrinsic value calculation for this business so over here i have the historical performance of the group as well as its other divisions over the past five years and i've basically forecasted the next year based on what management has already told us in terms of the store growth and as you can see over here i do project stores to increase by 7.67 over the next year and that closely aligns with the previous five-year compounded annual growth rate revenue should grow at a similar rate as uh it has over the past five years ebitda following on as well up 11 percent and i forecast net profit to be roughly 60 million over the next year which aligns with its previous five years now in terms of its intrinsic value i've used the free cash flow of the most current year and i project a growth rate of 11 which aligns with the uh revenue growth of the business and over the next four to six years i've reduced that growth rate by two percent to nine percent and then another one at eight percent between years seven to years ten i give it a terminal multiple of 25 which is slightly higher than its current earnings multiple assuming that the business continued to generate solid growth and deserves an appreciation of its valuation by the market and that gives me an equity value per share of eleven dollars and 27 cents so that represents four percent upside so with no margin of safety this stock looks like it's valued pretty fairly at current prices now over here i have the ticker website and ticker is a very useful uh tool to look at valuations of the business and other things out there so if you are interested in using this platform i have a referral link down below but basically this is collins valuation multiple over the past three years as you can see it's trading at a normalized next 12 months price to earnings of 22.27 times now i also have here domino's pizzas uh price earnings ratio as you can see dominoes have a much higher pe multiple however they do have much higher growth it's not really useful sometimes to compare comparables with other companies because there's different growth prospects looking at current earnings i think it's fairly valued at 22 times there's always potential downside it's come off a little bit and i think its current growth rate accurately reflects the current earnings multiple it's trading at and as you can see over here they've been reducing their debt over the past two years they have a net leverage ratio of 1.33 times and their current covenant ratio is 2.75 times so basically they can double their net debt and still be within their covenant and that does show that the group has sufficient debt facilities to support future growth initiatives ahead now if we come back to peter lynch and his three points of investing the last thing is that we should invest for the long term the first thing that you need to ask yourself is whether kfc will still be around in the next 10 years there's a risk of a trend towards healthier food obviously but how i like to see it is that healthy eating has been around since the 1980s and uh kfc is still around today so i definitely think kfc will still be around in the next 10 years unless there's some sort of disease that kills off all the chickens around i see that as very unlikely secondly the stock is a defensive and a growth stock at the same time which means that it should still be around over the long term in the short term with covert restrictions going on its defensive nature is that people still eat kfc people love it in australia however if covert goes away then europe uh kfc should pick back up as well and with regards with future growth we've mentioned before they're gonna have increasing stores with uh same store sales growth as well as the optionality with taco bell and lastly we take a look at management team track record over the past five years they've done tremendously well as discussed before with the numbers but over here is a more visual representation of the performance of the business i think this company has been executing well and should execute while going forward this is not a difficult business to understand this is a very easy business and easy business sometimes are good investments because it is very predictable and i think going forward the company should generate investment returns of roughly 10 very close to its underlying profit growth because currently its valuation in terms of price earnings multiple is not low it's certainly not cheap but it is at fair value so most of the growth will definitely come from earnings growth the share price could take a dip if earnings multiples contract so if it trades at a lower valuation that is when you could potentially lose money but stocks like these good quality stocks usually don't come at a discount so it's very difficult to buy it at a margin of safety which is why you need to take a longer term approach and think about over the long term how much returns can i generate with this investment and it usually is very closely aligned to its earnings growth over the long term so that's how i'm seeing it and that's why i have initiated a position in my private as well as in my public shares portfolio so you'll see that stock in my next portfolio update at the end of this month so let me know in the comment section down below what you think about collins i'm always keen to hear your thoughts whether you eat the chicken in australia let me know how it tastes like good or bad leave it in the comment section down below but thank you guys for watching hope you enjoyed today's video until next time take care
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