저자: Investo-gauchiste · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 Bill Ackman 포트폴리오 분석을 다룬다. 액티비스트 투자자 Ackman의 소수 집중 포트폴리오가 2014년 이후 연 16.3%로 S&P500(연 10%)을 상회했다고 설명. 발언자는 본인의 'left' 포트폴리오와 집중 포트폴리오(Chipotle, Canadian Pacific, Union Pacific 등)를 소개하고, Hilton(HLT)은 현재 밸류에이션과 현금흐름 불안정으로 추가 분석이 필요하다고 평가. 예측 발언보다는 과거 성과와 구조적 분석 위주.
다듬은 글
Hey leftists, I hope you're all doing well. What we do on this channel is document my investments, my leftist investments, how I do it, what positions I hold, we analyze all of that, and what I propose we do specifically today is take a look at the portfolio of a great investor named Bilakman, an investor I particularly admire, an American activist investor.
So we'll talk about him, but before we start this analysis, what I propose is to start 2024, well, I suggest we take a quick look at my portfolio, see the positions I hold, so we can document it and then we can look at where I am at the end of December, how I've progressed, and so on. So, it's not just about documenting all of that.
As you can see, I have two portfolios, I created two S Trading 22 portfolios, so the first one is my F of Leftist, which I document quite extensively on this channel, so you'll find positions in United, Els Danair, Research LC Corporation, Apple, Nord Disk, Tesla, Adobe, and NVR. I know some of these positions might surprise you; I'd call them leftist, so go watch my previous videos, I talk about them a lot.
I present these positions. Why is Tesla, for me, a leftist company? Why are SM Driver among the companies I consider leftist? So I document all of this, don't hesitate to check out my channel and my previous videos. I'll certainly make more in 2024. Then, if we look at the concentrated portfolio, I've documented it much less.
You'll find many more videos on my Patreon channel. When you subscribe for only €5 per month, you have access to the Invest IQ website and you'll also have access to specific videos on this portfolio. So there are other companies like Microsoft SPV, Intuit, Pacific, Chip V, Texas Instruments, Pacific, and Robert Alf.
That's it for the portfolio. So, early 2024, what I suggest we do now is find Bilacman's positions. It's quite simple: we go to Dataroma, and on Dataroma you have the different investor positions. He's also listed by Lex Grill, and we have the number of positions per stock. Then, what I do, as usual, is enter it into a small Excel file or a LibreOffice file.
You put in the number of stocks, and then you go to InvestQ, to "Analyze a Stock Portfolio," you load the file. Here, I've downloaded Bilacman's file, and then it leads you to the analysis of his portfolio, like this. So, for the first analysis chart, you have the comparison with the SNP 500 over a 10-year period.
You can select your period; for Bilacman, we'll put 10 years. So, what you need to know first is that Bilacman is... This is called an activist investor, meaning someone who buys huge stakes in companies that are practically bankrupt, or in fact, companies in difficulty. They'll try to get a seat on the board, and then, thanks to that seat, they can make decisions and try to turn these companies around.
That's how they made their fortune, by turning around struggling businesses. More recently, they've adopted a different investment strategy, somewhat similar to Warren Buffett's. They take a few positions, not too diversified—a fairly limited number of positions—and focus heavily on them, holding them for a long time.
It's thanks to this strategy, which is the same type of strategy I'm using, that they significantly outperform the SNP 500, as we'll see here. So, this is the historical comparison with the SNP 500 over a 10-year period. We'll start in 2014, and what we see is... The reason is that the annualized return of his portfolio is 16.3%, unlike the S&P 500 which has returned, I mean, 10% per year since 2014.
So, it's beating the S&P 500 by 6 %, which is a really impressive performance. It's a better performance than what Warren Buffett has done over the last 10 years. It's really a very, very good performance. So, there you have it, the return on investment. Then you have the monthly return matrix. What we see here is simply the different months of the year, and here you have the years.
What happens is that as soon as it's green, it means positive returns. As soon as it goes into the red, we have negative returns for the month. So, we see, for example, that in March 2020, well, it took a big hit, it lost 18%, but overall, it has extremely positive returns. And what we saw throughout...
Right now, it's significantly outperforming the SNP 500, so it makes sense that its matrix is generally green. Then, as usual, the Monte Carlo simulation is used to see, to imagine, the return of his portfolio if it continues to perform as it has previously. What will it look like in the future? Since portfolios like Bilacman's are in the millions or even billions, well, that doesn't really represent much; it's difficult to project.
So we're not going to look at that simulation for Bilacman, but for your own portfolio, which will be based on much more realistic values—we're talking about €1,000 to €10,000—it's much more realistic and much more interesting to run the Monte Carlo simulation and project the future performance of your portfolio.
Then, if we consider diversification, as I was saying, it's a bit like Warren Buffett's portfolio; it's relatively concentrated on a few positions in which he has strong convictions. So we find a position that I have... I like Chipotle Mexican Grill. It's a fast-food chain mainly based in the United States, but it's diversifying globally.
It's starting to open stores all over the world, which, for me, has excellent growth prospects because they're opening... they have incredible... What else do I own? It's Canadian Pacific. So that's a railway company. Canadian Pacific is the kind of company that's exceptional because it's a monopoly, a bit like Union Pacific, which I also own in my portfolio.
I own both Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific. So you own these two companies, you essentially own the monopoly of the Canadian and United States railways. So that's interesting to have. Then there are other companies. There's Google, a huge position in Google, and a position in HLT. HLT is Hilton Worldwide Holdings.
Well, listen, I don't know that one; it's housing. Housing, he has a very strong position in it, it deserves a look. Okay, I suggest we take a look. Let's go. So we'll go to the analysis, to the stock analysis tab here, and we'll type HLT here. We'll look at HLT, currently correctly valued in its linear regression value, neither above nor below, so a normal valuation.
Annualized return of 12.8%. If we take dividends into account, an annualized return of 14.5%. So since 2014, that means this stock alone has lowered the SNP 500, so clearly a very good stock in terms of performance as soon as we have more than 10%. B, the SNP 500 historically. Now, on the other hand, well, right away I see that I'm not in it.
If we look at the cash flow, a rather unstable cash flow, we see that it tightens in 2023, so maybe, by analyzing the company in detail, it's recovering, but we see Overall, there's a decline in cash flow. We see that the dividend is n't regular; there wasn't one in 2023. There was a small one in 2023, but there were no dividends in 2022.
So, there you have it. Oh yes, okay. So what we see here is that in 2021 they issued a lot of shares. When a company issues shares, it means it needs money to invest. So what we see here is that they issued a huge number of shares. We'll surely see that again, right? Because overall, it's decreasing.
Yet they also bought back a lot of shares in 2023. So, there were share issues, but they also bought back quite a few. So it seems to be balancing out. What are we going to look at now? Profit growth. So we see that profit isn't growing particularly. We have growth in... 4% is really not great, good margin, stable, equity asset, okay, so it had a very good year in 2020.
23, maybe it's a company that's recovering, the price-to- book ratio is lower than what's being done in this area of the industry, so it's undervalued. What we're going to look at directly is the evolution of the P ratio, so we 're on a P ratio much higher than the historical average. Well, listen, I think it deserves a bit more analysis, I would n't go in.
In any case, it's a company consistent with left-leaning values, we have 18.6, I remind you, around 20 means we're starting to move away from a portfolio with left-leaning values, so the left-leaning indicator, huh? Here, 17.6, we're on a rather left-leaning company, we'll have to... well, I'd have to make a specific analysis video on this company because right now it's really not promising.
In any case, I wouldn't take a position on it with that data, it's not sufficient. So, other companies, okay, HHH water, that's basically what I was saying, a concentration strategy. Then there's Deep Finder. So what's happening is that we see on the rolling year-over-year figures, Canadian Pacific's TR is 6% lower than the previous year.
So we can consider it a cheaper TR than it was the previous year. Conversely, Chip Mexico Grill's TR is 26% more expensive because of its super performance. I bought it, I bought it late, I didn't buy it, but even just having bought it at the end of last year, it's already 17%. So you can imagine if we had bought it a year ago, we would be closer to 26%.
And me, typically, right now I'm increasing my Canadian Pacific position because I see that it's trading much lower than its historical price and that It's a company I find extremely interesting. Its correlation matrix also helps to see how diversified it is. So, as you know, the redder it is, the more correlated two stocks are.
When it's very red, it means we have the same stock. CMG is correlated with CMG, and QSR is correlated with QSR. When one stock rises, the other also rises; when one falls, the other also falls. And if we're closer to white, it means that here, CMG and Mexican Grill are relatively uncorrelated with Canyan Pacific.
When one rises, it has very little impact on Canyan Pacific. So, it's interesting to see this because it basically tells us that if it's very red, it's highly correlated. There's no point in having so many stocks because ultimately they're almost the same. But here, what we see is that overall, it's less than 0.5 in correlation on quite a few.
So, there you have it, it has little of stocks and its shares are not necessarily correlated, so that's what I call good diversification. Yes, good diversification is defined by the criteria: uncorrelated stocks and few, but of course, quality stocks. Then, on the risk/reward matrix, what we see is that it's complicated to analyze given the stock's P/E ratio, but what we see is that CMG is the riskiest company, yet it's not the one making the best profits, even though it makes very good profits.
It's rather Google that carries its portfolio. So Google here has very good performance and little risk. Overall, it has a fairly low-risk portfolio, knowing that risk here is simply measured by volatility. So, volatility, if you're aware of volatility, well, ultimately there's little risk in the stock market.
What we say is that there's ultimately little risk if you look at it over fairly long time scales. It's important to note that a stock is volatile, and ultimately, its overall left-leaningness is at 19.2. As I was saying, the limit is more like 20. At 20, we're no longer talking about the left-leaning scale.
So, as a reminder, the left-leaning scale means I don't invest in anything related to tobacco, alcohol, weapons, prisons, immigration control companies (I don't remember if I mentioned it), but oil, obviously. We make sure that companies respect gender equality, that they respect employees, and the quality of life at work.
We look at many criteria to aggregate them in the left-leaning scale, and if you're below 20, it means you have a stock or a portfolio that's considered left-leaning. So, we're indeed talking about a portfolio that I consider to be left-leaning, so very good overall. It's a very good portfolio, and it reflects an investment philosophy that I adhere to.
That's really why I have few stocks but strong convictions. In these few stocks, stocks that are a major player, what we call a "mode" (mode), have no competition, or if you want to compete, the barrier to entry is so high that it's practically impossible. That's what we find with Canan Pacific and Union Pacific.
Good luck building your railway and buying your equipment; it costs a fortune. So there's almost no chance of having any competitors. Similarly, roads, trucks, planes—these aren't modes of freight transport that can compete with these two companies because what they transport can only be transported by rail.
So here we have two companies, just one example—it's really just an example of companies that have no competition, that can't be challenged, and therefore can only grow. That's why I own these. Well, that's it for the analysis of Bilacman. Overall, a great portfolio. Remember, if you want access to Invest IQ, it's very simple.
You just need to subscribe to my Patreon, only €5 per month. You get access to stock- by-stock analysis and portfolio analysis. If you use Trading22, you can use the Trading22 API. Otherwise, you can create a small LibreOffice or Excel file containing your stocks, upload it here, and you can do the analysis. See you next time, bye leftists!
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