저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어의 DCF 밸류에이션을 수행한 영상. 향후 5년 FCF를 EPS 성장률 57.64%로 추정하고 6년차부터 5% 영구성장을 가정, WACC 19.07%(베타 2.72)로 할인해 내재가치를 주당 약 $13.93으로 산출. 시장가($39대)보다 크게 낮아 고평가로 판단하며, 베타를 낮추거나 성장 전환을 모델링하면 가치가 올라가도 저평가 결론은 나오지 않는다고 함. 과거 1월에는 매수 의견이었으나 주가 급등 후 이익 실현을 권고했다고 회고.
다듬은 글
paler is one of the more popular AI stocks in the market today a lot of investors have strong opinions about paler stock one way or another but how much is paler stock really worth I'm going to answer that question in this video by conducting a discounted cash flow analysis of paler stock evaluating the company's growth of free cash flows over the next 5 years discounting them today and applying a valuation to determine how much I think palente in trans value is worth now this example provides a very interesting learning experience I love when these cases come up when conducting a discounted cash flow analysis when my discounted intrinsic value differs so greatly from the current market price because that allows us to look at why there is that big difference and evaluate what assumptions are creating that difference so without further Ad here we have my paler discounted cash flow model but before I get into the details of the numbers let me share with you where I'm getting all of the numbers from so from y charts I got palente tier Technologies average diluted shares outstanding of 2.41 five billion and the current market price of $392 6 cents for paler stock I also pulled palente trailing 12-month free cash flow of 6964 one million this is where I will start my cash flow forecast my free cash flow forecast for paler for the next 5 years now I also got palente growth rate expectations for earnings per share for the next 5 years from Yahoo finance and they expect its earnings per share will grow by 57.6 4% over the next 5 years now I'm going to use that growth rate to forecast palente free cash flow over the next 5 years and already you see one of the challenges of creating this type of discounted cash flow valuation I'm using a earnings per share forecast and using that for my free cash flow forecast so it's an imprecise forecast everything when looking to the future is imprecise but like Warren Buffett says I'd rather be approximately right instead of precisely wrong so I tend to use generalities and I'll share with you the differences I'm using where I'm getting the numbers from to be transparent and so you can tell what's going on and make your own conclusion whether or not the numbers I'm using are accurate or too optimistic or too pessimistic whatever you might feel so you could come to your own conclusions all right so here we go let's start with 2024 free cash flows here for paler I told you I got this number from uh y charts 696 million in free cash flow for palente here in 2024 and I forecasted their free cash flows out for the next 5 years using the growth rate that I got from Yahoo finance from nte stock of 57.6 4% I forecasted the next 5 years of cash flows using that 57.6 4% growth rate and then in the sixth year I forecasted paler cash flow using a long-term growth rate of 5% in this valuation model I'm forecasting paler will grow at an above average rate for the next 5 years and then settle down to the long run growth rate of just 5% now this isn't typically what happens in business usually a business will transition to a lower growth rate and I would typically model this out in phases where I would have this short-term growth rate of 57% and then perhaps a smaller growth rate of 25% for the next 5 years and then slowly transitioning to the long-term growth rate of 5% for palente here but for the sake of being concise and shortening the video and shortening the example I just went went straight into the long-term growth rate which is something that brings down paler uh valuation perhaps more than it should so already this one number that I'm using or this one strategy that I'm using to evaluate paler stock gives it at a lower valuation than it should but I wanted to share that with you so you know that's one area that's bringing the valuation down all right the next thing I want to highlight is the cost of capital so paler weighted a cost of capital I calculated at 19.07% now I feel that is on the higher side than where it should be but here's where I'm getting the numbers from so palente Capital asset pricing model where I bring in the risk-free rate plus the beta times the market risk premium gives me the capital asset pricing model cost of equity of 19.82% mostly because paler beta is very high at 2.72 2.72 and I got this beta from Yahoo finance which provides the beta for paler stock additionally since paler has close to zero debt and over 94% of its capitalization is from Equity the cost of equity is usually higher for most businesses paler included so because the cost of equity is so high and more than 94% % of the company 94.3% to be precise is capitalized through Equity that brings up palente weighted average cost of capital to 19.07% so these cash flows that I forecasted out for the next 5 years I'm discounting them back at that 19.07% growth rate or discount rate I should say and that brings me to the present value of the cash flows of the next 5 years of 8.72 69 billion ion dollar all right then when we look at the Horizon value and this means the cash flows uh I've heard this called terminal value as well um in the textbooks that I use to teach Corporate Finance they call it Horizon value so I've gotten in the habit of calling it Horizon value but you could think of it as the terminal value it's the same concept I've got a calculation for a horizon value at 50.57 billion and I'm taking the 2030 expected free cash flow of 7.1 billion of 19.07% minus the longterm growth rate of 5% which brings me to that $50 billion Horizon value but remember that's the Horizon value in the year 2029 we need to get that value today so I discount this Horizon value all the way back to today which brings me to the present value of the Horizon value of 21 billion when we sum up these two values together the PV of cash flows plus the PV of horizon value we get the value of operations at 29.86 39 billion for overall value of paler business so now we have the value here 29.86 3 billion value of operations we need to add non-operating assets and subtract debt so I add paler cash balance of $3.99 billion and then I subtract its debt of only $229 million and then we have to take that value and divide it by the number of shares outstanding so when we take this number the value of uh Equity at 33632 billion for paler divided by the number of shares outstanding I get an intrinsic value calculation of paler stock of just $13.93 and remembering in the introduction of the video I said I like when I get a value that's so much different than the current market price which is right now $39 per share and my intrinsic value suggests it's worth $13.93 per share so I love when this happens because then I get to ask further questions why is my valuation so much lower than the current market price what are the assumptions that are causing this big difference and for one it's what I mentioned in the beginning of the video when I introduced my model and I said that I'm assuming that after five years paler goes immediately into its long run growth rate which is a much smaller growth rate of just 5% which is 1110th the rate of 1th the rate of growth of the next 5 years so that's one assumption that's bringing down my intrinsic value whereas if I did what's called the H model which is a transition into a lower growth rate instead of an Abrupt shift to the lower growth rate that would have lifted paler valuation according to my intrinsic value calculation another area I think is a big difference is the weighted average cost of capital I mentioned that I feel this weighted average cost of capital is too high for paler stock a beta of 2.72 is really high for paler given its business uh typic when a company is deriving a significant percentage of its revenue from the government you have these companies become lower beta companies they're considered defense stocks Etc and they have lower betas these revenues are at lower risk than revenues to Enterprises because the government has the ability to spend money whether the economy is in a recession or whether the economy is in robust growth so I would adjust downward palente beta I would adjust it downward at least to perhaps 1.72 and you'll notice that brings up the intrinsic value per share to $24.55 it makes a big difference right now if I were to lower the beta further 1.32 that would bring me to a market price and intrinsic value per share that's closer to the current market price but at the current beta of 2.7 to that's making the big difference of Bringing Down the intrinsic value per share so if I were to make a few changes to the assumptions you'll see that palen's intrinsic value per share will increase but still regardless of the assumptions that I adjust I don't arrive at a calculation that makes me feel that paler stock is undervalued and you'll see that and that's partly the reason why earlier you know a couple of months ago or a couple of weeks ago I forget but you can look back at my videos and see when I told investors that I felt paler stock was overvalued and it was a good time to take profits earlier this year around January I had paler stock rated as a buy because the market price was below where I felt the stock price was worth and then after the stock price surged I told investors okay the stock price has increased way faster than I thought it would and way ahead of the company's growth in profits and free cash flow so it's an interesting example not one that you should use explicitly meaning this isn't the one data point you should use to make your investment decision this is just one of among many things you can utilize to make your decision about paler stock WR
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