저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
실적 성장 가속(3분기 EPS 약 30% 성장 전망), 2027 EPS 상향으로 S&P500 밸류에이션 하락. 9월 고용 둔화로 연준 긴축 기대 완화, 향후 6개월 인플레 둔화 예상. 10년물 금리 5% 아래 하락 가능성 언급. 중간선거 이후 민주당의 AI·데이터센터·CLARITY Act 지지로 AI주 상승 기대, 10월 중순~선거 전 조정 가능성 언급. 비트코인은 희소자산으로 장기 유동성 확대 수혜, 100K 회복은 유동성 요인에 달림.
다듬은 글
We live in unprecedented times as earnings growth is accelerating—something many would have a hard time believing in their lifetime, but even third- quarter earnings are likely to reach nearly 30% growth. But what makes this even more interesting is that it's not just about expectations anymore. The numbers are already starting to show this.
And if earnings growth continues to accelerate at the same pace, the market could end up in a very different situation than many investors think. Let's see what the earnings data tells us . We live in unprecedented times as earnings growth is accelerating—something many would have a hard time believing in their lifetime, but even third- quarter earnings are likely to reach nearly 30% growth.
Year-to- date EPS revisions for 2027 earnings are up more than 20% , while the S&P 500 is not even up 20%. So the multiplier actually went down. If anyone thought the market was expensive at the beginning of the year, it actually became cheaper. And I think that, paradoxically, high oil prices, because the US is an exporter, actually strengthen the US economy.
I know it's a very complex situation, but I think there's a lot of pessimism because not only are the earnings forecasts good, we're also seeing a leadership in stocks that are expecting weaker inflation, which is the technology sector and, you know, cryptocurrencies. I think before last week's jobs report, the market was operating with a maximum hawkish view of the Fed, which was going to raise rates three times, including a 75% chance of a hike in October.
This employment report was weaker. We will receive the September inflation report in two weeks. In our opinion, this is true. We believe these one-off factors are passing, so I think there will be lower inflation readings over the next 6 months, and that will not only allow the Fed to back off its tight policy, but also allow bond yields to normalize as inflation uncertainty begins to subside.
And I see a lot of clues, as technology stocks are making new highs and cryptocurrencies are showing results like this; they could not feel this way under conditions of tightening monetary policy. So, I think they expect financial conditions to ease in the future. I think the number we can work with is: before Jackson Hole, 10-year bonds were at 4.75%, and I think anything below 5% would be seen by the markets as a very positive signal for risk assets.
And, I mean, I think there's a good chance that in the next 6 months we'll see yields below 5%. But the more important question is: what will happen after the midterm elections? Because the election results may not only affect markets in the short term. They could change the outlook for AI, cryptocurrencies, and some of the biggest investment topics.
And this is where the most interesting thing begins. I think markets love stagnation, so Democratic control of Congress will be seen as such stagnation. AI and cryptocurrency stocks are slowing due to the election as Democrats are seen as not supporting data centers and the Clarity Act. But we believe that after the election, Democrats will start supporting data centers and the Clarity Act, because, first, data centers usually bring great economic benefits to communities, and the Clarity Act had many supporters among Democrats.
So I think AI stocks will benefit after the election because changes in Congress will actually give the green light to some projects. I mean, the correction has an expiration date, partly because I see the midterm elections as a market-clearing event. You know, this is probably going to be a very strong risk signal for the markets, regardless of the outcome.
And since June 30, I think the situation in the markets has been difficult. So in part I think we had a gradual correction, and we saw declines in many different sectors. But as for a deeper market decline, I still believe that there could be some headwinds from mid-October until the election. Mhm. I'm not really inclined to make such big statements because the sentiment has been negative, and when people are pessimistic, it's hard for markets to "overheat" because we see investors acting on their sentiment and remaining cautious.
But the story doesn't end with the midterm elections. There is another issue that investors are closely watching. If the macroeconomic environment is putting pressure on traditional scarce assets like gold, why is Bitcoin behaving so differently? And, more importantly, what could actually push Bitcoin back above $100,000?
This is where the difference between Bitcoin and gold becomes particularly important. And you mentioned that gold and Bitcoin often move separately. Even though we see the highest correlation between them, it seems they are still not in the same boat. And many analysts expected Bitcoin to fall in price like gold due to rising Treasury yields .
Why do you think Bitcoin might behave differently in such macroeconomic conditions than other long-term scarce assets like gold? And what do you think needs to happen to push the price back to historical highs of over 100k? Uh , good question. First, the Bitcoin market is about an order of magnitude smaller than the gold market, and it is more volatile.
Therefore, it has a slightly different profile of owners. Well, you know, gold is more often held by states, senior investors, or it partly exists in the form of jewelry. While Bitcoin, on average , of course, has many institutional owners, there are also government owners. On average, the profile of a retail owner will be slightly younger than in the case of gold.
It is considered a slightly riskier asset, at least from a portfolio perspective. And so pricing works a little differently here. Sometimes they rise, sometimes they fall together. And in general, fiscal dominance should push up various types of quality scarce assets in the long run. It could be high-quality stocks, Bitcoin, gold, anything that is a leader in its category, as long as that category is doing well .
As for what will bring Bitcoin to 100 thousand, that's a question for traders. Obviously, it rose quite quickly from a bottom somewhere around 58 thousand to where it is now, much higher. This is less movement than what is needed to reach 100 thousand. And I think it's a combination of liquidity factors.
I think it's a combination of the fact that the schedule has become more attractive. First, they saw that Bitcoin was no longer falling. So they start coming in. If it starts to gain momentum, momentum traders come in. And, you know , a significant part of the " fast money" has already been released.
He is holding on tightly. And finally, there are things that can bring back " fast money". But I believe that the long-term background is that the money supply in the world will continue to grow. Bond markets around the world will continue to grow. Nothing will stop these processes. So there is some background pressure, an inflow for the highest quality assets, although, as with a rising tide, there are waves that roll in and out.
So you get spikes and corrections. But you still want to own the highest quality scarce items. And , you know, obviously, Bitcoin is among the best. So, when you put all these pieces together, the picture becomes much clearer. We have rising earnings, the potential for easing financial conditions, falling inflationary pressures, and a market that can price in far more pessimism than the real data warrants.
At the same time, AI, cryptocurrencies, and other high-quality scarce assets are already showing signs of strength. And for Bitcoin, the more important story may not be what happens in the coming weeks, but what happens as global liquidity, money supply, and bond markets continue to expand. There will always be corrections .
Volatility will always be there. But if the long-term backdrop continues to favor scarce, high-quality assets, Bitcoin remains one of those assets worth watching most closely. The question is no longer simply whether Bitcoin can regain its previous highs. The bigger question is how high it will be able to climb when the macroeconomic environment finally shifts in its favor.
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