Warren Buffett: How To start Investing In Stocks

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결론: 버핏은 고정금액 투자와 금·상품(투기성 자산)보다 생산성 있는 자산(주식·농지·사업체)을 선호한다는 입장이다. [페트로차이나 투자 회고] 버핏은 페트로차이나를 약 35억 달러에 사서 약 35억 달러 규모 수익(원금 대비 약 7배 수준 표현, 자막상 '5억 달러 투자로 35억 달러 수익')을 냈다고 회고했다. 그러나 너무 일찍 팔았다고 인정했다. [기업 가치 평가 방법] 주가보다 먼저 사업 자체를 분석해 적정 가치를 산정하고, 주가가 그보다 크게 낮을 때 매수한다는 원칙을 강조했다. 당시 회사 가치를 약 1,000억 달러 이상으로 봤다고 언급했다. [정치적 이유 매도 여부] 다르푸르 문제 등 정치적 압력으로 매도한 적은 없으며, 중국 정부 지배 구조와 중국 주식 투자 판단은 국가 기준이 아니라 기업 분석 기준이라고 설명했다. [금 vs 생산자산] 금은 배당·현금흐름이 없어 공포 심리에 따른 가격 변동에 의존하는 투기 성격이 강하다고 평가했다. 반면 농지, 주식, 사업체는 장기간 현금을 창출하는 생산적 자산이라고 강조했다. [금 비유 및 농지 비교] 전 세계 금을 모으면 약 67피트 정입방체이며 현재가로 약 7조 달러이고, 같은 금액으로 미국 농지 약 2.5조 달러어치 대부분과 엑손모빌 약 7개 등을 살 수 있다고 비교했다. [달러 가치 및 인플레이션] 달러 가치는 장기적으로 하락하므로 은퇴 자산을 현금·고정금액 자산으로만 두는 것은 손해라는 취지로 설명했다. [자산 선호 및 리스크] 단기 주식시장 변동은 예측하기 어렵지만 5~10년 기준으로는 고정금액 투자보다 보통주를 선호한다고 밝혔다. 상품(원자재) 투자는 생산 능력이 없어 투기에 가깝다고 경계했다. [종목 및 방향 언급] 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 명시하지 않았다. 코카콜라·웰스파고 등 장기 보유 사업체를 예시로 들었다. [출연자 전망] 금 가격 1개월~3개월 방향에 대한 구체 예측은 없으며, 장기적으로 생산 자산이 금을 이긴다는 견해가 전체 논지다.

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01. we take a look at this 40 year run on the dollar the dollar is designed economically to lose money every single year so why would you save something that loses money every year and what this means was somebody on retirement plans is that after you retire you know the value of your dollar goes down and your cost of living keeps going up to my Rich Dad that was bad advice and made no sense we sold it from 60 to 200 or something like a nice tidy profit yeah we made it we made about three and a half billion dollars on five hundred million dollar investment it turned out I should have sold it way too soon since I sold it they must have shot a got off and said my word so it's time to let it go up yeah you've left money on the table money dummy Charlie what Charlie would say you've done it again but you can't keep always trying for the average person who's maybe never bought a stock before what's your advice about that you can't constantly sit there and wait and say oh it's going to go higher I'm going to go high we don't even think about that what we think about is how much is it selling for how much do we think it's worth when we bought it at 35 billion effectively I felt the company was probably worth at least a hundred billion how did it come to your attention how do you find a stuff like PetroChina I sit there in my office and I read an annual report which fortunately was in English and it described a very good company and told about the oil reserves about the roof lining told about the chemicals everything else and I sat there and read it and I thought to myself this company is worth about a hundred billion now I didn't look at the price first I look at the business first and try and figure out what it's worth because if I look at the price first I'll get influenced by that so I look at that I look at the company first I try to value it then I look at the price and if the price is way less than what I've just valued at that I'm going to buy it but how do you value it well I think that's that's the trick but it's it's essentially what I would pay for the whole business if I could buy it and when we sold the company's stock it was valued we'll say it was seventeen probably 250 to 275 billion and we thought that was a fair price now oil had gone up from $30 a barrel to $75 a barrel even further but today well yesterday at anyway I believe PetroChina is the second most highly valued company in the world higher than ye next ExxonMobil next excellent have you sold the entire stink yeah I have well it we sold it over a period I sold em yeah at the time we went down a lot we'd buy it back would you ever buy or sell a stock based on political pressure or sort of people being upset about Darfur had nothing to do why you sold it off the Chinese government owns 88 percent of pepper of China they also own control of 29 out of 30 largest companies in China the Chinese government is the one that has a position in relation to the Sudan and they have it if you own any one of the 30 largest companies in publicly traded companies in China you will have the Chinese government as your majority partner and the question is are you responsible for their actions you're going to China next week for a ribbon cutting ceremony abilities lism you're pretty good at cutting they're used to it are you looking at other companies in China I don't I don't look based no the answer is pretty much no but I don't look based on countries or that sort of thing I just I just read every report I can and I try and figure out whether something is cheap how would you find a report like PetroChina four years ago this is not a name that maybe that a lot of people with other guys read Playboy yeah reports there we've never even talked about the supply picture but he's talking about eventually being able to increase the supply of gold you had a shareholder who asked you a question about gold over the weekend and your response was pretty interesting Berkshire versus Gold you wanna talk about how that's performed over the years yeah but wouldn't go beyond that but certainly when we took over Berkshire Berkshire was selling in $15 a share and gold was selling at $20 an ounce and then gold is now 1,600 and Berkshires a hundred and twenty thousand but but you can take a broader example on that and if you if you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it a hundred years you can go to it every day and you you can coup to it and you can caress it and and you can fondle it and and 100 years from now you'll have one ounce of gold and I won't have done anything for you in between if you buy a hundred acres of farmland it will produce for you every year you can use that money to buy more farmland you can do all kinds of things for a hundred years it'll produce things for you and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of a hundred years you can buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average 466 at the start of 1900 gold was then $20 at the end it was eleven thousand four hundred but you don't got in dividends for a hundred years so a productive asset of any kind of decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time now in any given one year period five year period any asset can outperform another asset I want you doing me but and by some cows I like your farmland but you know you're in Nebraska for Creber Iowa you love steak I mean that we can have leather we could have manure we can have milk we can have me we'll employees will employ people taking care of the cows I mean little gold it's worth 50 cent whatever we had one in here look I think it was worth like sixty or seventy thousand dollars I can get like so many head of cattle for that and be productive like farmland you're just too lazy to take care of the cattle or something pay some people absolutely must be a tithing might be hard I know I've kept a few but I've never have you taught it I hope you have not kids and that is that's my old school you know I know they're sweet they're sweet but not too bright like me you can get somebody else to do all the work give them a percentage of the crop and you could sit back there for a hundred years and get a percentage of the crop and you still got the land when you get all through I will guarantee you that farmland over a hundred years is going to be gold and so our solar equities no listening to you talk don't warn when you say with your comments about bonds that makes me think of financial assets and in general which includes stocks and I think about the printing presses not only in this country but around the world you've seen the commercial to tone to tune to tune with the central banks and there are periods where financial assets are great from the like early 80s to 2000 and I just wonder if there's then periods where hard assets are great and you see Paulson and gold and some of these other guys in gold or commodities are you just not comfortable with commodities are there times where you should be downplaying maybe stocks or businesses in going totally full bore into commodities but you're just not comfortable doing that no the alternative with me Joe the alternative I don't like I don't like fixed dollar investments at all I don't like short-term bonds I don't like long-term bonds we don't a lot of short-term bonds but that is not because we like about just a parking place but the alternative and in my view I mean it certainly commodities can be an alternative but the alternative is income producing assets of one sort of another that are not fixed dollar type investments and as III I've said consistently for the last few years I would vastly prefer to own common stocks than fixed dollar investments over a 5 or 10 year period I don't know what about the next five hours or five days and that might very well extend to rental real estate it might extend to farms I mean an investment you're looking for something where you put out money now and that asset that you buy gives you back more money over time now the problem with commodities is that you're betting on what somebody else will pay for them in six months the commodity itself isn't going to do anything for you so there's two types of of assets to buy one is where the asset itself delivers a return to you such as you know rental property stocks a farm and then there's assets that you buy where you hope somebody else pays you more later on but the asset itself doesn't produce anything and those are two different games I regard the second game as speculation now there's nothing immoral or illegal or fattening about speculation but it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time I bought a farm 30 years ago not not far from here I've never had a quote on it cents what I do is I look at what it produces every year and it produces a very satisfactory amount relative to what I paid for it if they close the stock market for 10 years and we owned coca-cola and Wells Fargo and some other businesses it wouldn't bother me because I'm looking at what the business produces if I buy a McDonald's stand I don't get a quote on it every day I look at how my businesses every day so those are the kind of assets I like to own something that actually is going to deliver and hopefully deliver to meet my expectations over time a piece of art you know may may go from a thousand dollars to fifty million dollars but it's dependent on what the next guy wants to pay me and the art itself the painting itself is not going to dispense cash so I have to find somebody that's going to like it more and with most with an asset like gold for example you know basically gold is a way of going along on fear and and it's been a pretty good way of going balling on fear from time to time but you really have to hold people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now and if they've got more afraid you make money if they come become less afraid you lose money but the gold itself doesn't produce anything well speaking of gold though we're looking at gold prices and they were at another record high they're up another three dollars today 1434 dollars an ounce and there have been some big hedge fund managers like a Paulson or a David Einhorn who have really buckled down on these beds why would you steer clear and do you think what they're doing is the wrong thing well I just don't know I I don't know where the cons gonna go I mean I we use a lot of cotton i watch they go from 80 cents to a dollar 90 you know we use a lot of copper and I watched it go from $2 to $4 plus so I mean there's all kinds of things in this world are gonna go up and down in price yeah maybe hamburgers will tomorrow and but I I don't know how to judge that I do know how to judge to some extent the earning power of some businesses and and the real test of whether you would like it as an investment is whether you would be happy if it never got quoted again and just in terms what the asset did for you but that doesn't I would say this about gold if you took all of the gold in the world it would it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side so if you took all the gold in the world we could have a cube that went down there 67 feet 67 feet high and that would be the whole thing now for that same cube of gold it would be worth at today's market price is about seven trillion dollars that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States so you can have a choice of owning a third of all the stocks in the United States or you could have a choice of owning that little block of gold which can't do anything but kind of shine there and make you feel like Midas or Croesus or something of the sort now for seven trillion dollars there are roughly a billion farm acres of farmland in the United States they're valued at about two and a half trillion dollars it's about half the continental United States this farmland you could have all the farmland in the United States you could have about seven Exxon Mobil's and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money and if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day you know want fondling it occasionally you know and then saying you know do something for me and it says I don't do anything I just stand here to look pretty and and the alternative to that was to have all the farmland in the country everything cotton corn soybeans seven Exxon Mobil's just think of that add a trillion dollars of walking-around money I you know maybe call me crazy but I'll take the farmland than the Exxon Mobil's all right that makes some sense Carl you've got a question - I'm still trying to get the image of Warren fondling a giant block of gold yeah out of mine and his fondling it occasionally maybe a giant block of gold and you'll see me father like you've ever seen