저자: PathtoWealth채널진행자,출연Danilo · 외국인
요약 보기
영화 '빅쇼트'와 마이클 베리(Michael Burry)의 2008년 서브프라임 위기 역베팅 사례를 소개하는 교육 영상이다. 결론: 과거 사례를 교훈 삼아 군중 심리에서 벗어나 다각화하고, 위기에서도 기회를 찾으라는 메시지다. 마이클 베리는 어린 시절 질병과 아스퍼거 증후군 진단 등을 겪었고, 의대 졸업 후 금융 시장에 뛰어들어 투자 펀드를 운용했다. 미국 주택시장 버블은 탐욕에 의한 과도한 대출 완화(무직자 포함)와 부동산 가격 부풀림에서 비롯됐고, 연체 증가로 대출이 멈추면서 시장이 붕괴했다. 베리는 주택담보대출 부실을 분석해 2005년경 서브프라임 관련 증권에 대해 하락 베팅을 했고, 2008년 시장이 그를 입증했다. 리먼브러더스 등 금융기관이 파산했다. 교훈 1: 남들을 따라 하는 군중 효과를 경계하고, 직접 공부하거나 전문가 도움을 받아라. 과거의 성공이 미래를 보장하지 않는다. 교훈 2: 분산투자를 하라. 비상자금은 저변동성·즉시 유동성 자산에, 장기 자산은 여러 자산군에 나눠라. 교훈 3: 위기에도 돈을 벌 수 있다. 공매도 사례와 2014~2015년 브라질의 물가연동 채권 등 고정수익 상품이 좋은 수익을 냈다는 예시를 든다. 교훈 4: 알려진 것(예금, CDB, 연금 등)을 지나치게 신뢰하지 말고, 사채·회사채·부동산 관련 증권 등 다양한 금융상품을 탐색하라. 영상은 특정 종목에 대한 가격 예측이나 추천은 포함하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
Hello, have you ever watched or heard of the movie "The Big Short"? It received five Oscar nominations in 2015. Basically, it's a documentary about the housing bubble in the United States in 2008. This bubble caused a crisis that started there but very quickly affected the global economy. At the center of this story is Mike Bublé, a genius investor who, unlike large investment banks and other contemporary investors, made millions of dollars basically betting against all trends.
When everyone was betting on the rise of the real estate market and the appreciation of this type of asset, Michael Bublé went against the grain and profited billions. So, watch this video until the end and you will learn a little more about the story of Mike Bublé and also learn how he played against the market and finally learn four valuable lessons from this investment genius.
I take this opportunity to invite you, if you are not yet a follower of the " Path to Wealth" channel, take this moment, click on this red button below your screen and become a follower. Don't forget to click on this icon. It looks like a little bell here at the bottom of your screen, and that way you'll be notified of all our posts.
Every Tuesday we upload new content, and you'll be notified on your computer or cell phone, whichever you prefer. You can also interact with us, tell us if you liked this content, if it helped you achieve your financial prosperity. Give us a thumbs up and show us you 're on the right track. So, a little bit of Mike the Bank's story: at just two years old, he was diagnosed with cancer, and some complications led to the implantation of a glass eye.
Soon after, he was mistakenly diagnosed with bipolar disorder. In reality, what he suffered from was a neurological disease called Asperger's syndrome. This little-known disease affects the patient's ideological foundations, causing them to lose natural communication and socialization abilities. Experts suggest that this diagnosis led him to make big bets in the financial sector.
His first work in the financial market, when he was still a medical student, was posting and creating content for finance blogs. That's right, like the path to wealth, a little bit. After graduating in neurosurgery, he abandoned his medical career to dedicate himself exclusively to the financial market.
In this first venture, he founded an investment fund that was successful before the crisis, but which was discontinued after 2008. Like many others, he has many funds from that time. From then on, he became a personal investor, basically investing in technology startups and also in agribusiness. What he actually did was acquire land with abundant water and other very dry land.
He used the humid lands for production and transported the harvest to the much drier lands to sell in those regions. Today, he manages another investment fund he founded himself. Although the money is a little bit about Michael Bay, I'll talk a little about the story of the movie "The Big Short." The first thing is to understand how the housing bubble formed and then how it burst.
Well, it obviously happened because of greed, the desire to earn more and more and more. American banks started making mortgage lending very easy and credit. The mortgage lender, believing they could, clearly see that when you leave your rented property and borrow money from the bank, they started releasing credit even to the unemployed, to those who had no capacity to pay the debt.
Obviously, this happened because, as always, greed, the desire to earn more and more, obviously generates an overvaluation of properties, and of course, a fictitious valuation. It's very easy to buy, and everyone is demanding, increasing the demand, which then increases the price because the supply of properties doesn't grow as quickly as the release of credit, as happened with the bursting of the bubble.
Well, as the character predicted, obviously these people started defaulting, that is, not paying their debts. When this happened, the banks stopped releasing credit, and the real estate market began to fall. Now look at this problem: mortgage credit. You leave your property as collateral to buy another property.
When you enter a crisis, you can't sell your property because you do n't want to sell it cheaply, and that collateral becomes worth less to the bank. In other words, the debtor ended up seeing more than they had given as collateral. Imagine the problem even worse: after the stock market started to boom, the banks stopped releasing credit.
The lack of credit meant that even good payers no longer had access to bank credit. Even those willing to sell their properties at lower prices didn't have enough demand because the bank wouldn't release credit, not even to those with a good credit history. In short, due to this tremendous responsibility, over many years and years, several financial institutions collapsed, including Lehman Brothers, founded in 1850.
Imagine that in 2008, it would have been like something like Bradesco in Brazil going bankrupt. I never expected anything like that. And what was the big gamble Obama won, and with whom did he make it? He evaluated these securities— real estate credit securities and mortgage-backed securities— granted by banks to general investors, while funds, the common investor, were valued by the ratings assigned by risk agencies.
For example, Fitch, according to the three major agencies, classified these securities as triple-play, meaning the most vulnerable. Why? Because for years and years these consumers, the ultimate creditors of the properties, were burdened with their debts. When the bank realized this... It's insane that banks lost control over their loan portfolios when they started extending perpetual credit, meaning to people who weren't able to repay the loans.
He started evaluating this differently. What he did was visit numerous properties and begin scrutinizing the banks' loan portfolios. When he realized that things were bound to collapse, he simply bet against these loans. But this asset doesn't exist, so he approached the major banks at the time, JP Morgan Goldman Sachs, and asked them to create a security that would counteract mortgage defaults.
For example, he would issue a security that appreciates when mortgage-backed securities depreciate. Let's think about it: this is insane! He's betting against a whole mass of loans that, for decades, have never defaulted. A triple-linked mortgage, or a US mortgage-backed securities? How is that possible?
The banks were thinking, " For us, for us banks, this is easy money." He said, "Okay, you issue it." The bank today issues a security called... you know, prime? What's that? For low-risk credit, subprime? For high-risk credit, the banks will issue it." And he bought it. Well, he did it in 2005. And he was wrong because the team lost a lot of money up until 2008, but in 2008 the market realized he was right.
Defaults increased to such an extent that nobody could pay their mortgage debts anymore; the properties used as collateral were almost worthless. And now, here's the end of the story, everyone knows. In short, the stock market melted down, financial markets around the world plummeted. All this due to this responsibility and this investor of billions of dollars betting on accounts and having this vision, making a different analysis than everyone else did.
Well, we recorded this video, and it was n't for nothing. Obviously, this guy has a lot to teach us. So from now on, we're going to share four consecutive success stories taught by Michael Berg. Danilo, what do you think about us partnering up? I do 262, it would be excellent to start. Okay, so let's go.
Well, the first one, the first lesson you can learn from this story is not to follow the mass effect of the market, also called the herd effect. In other words, it 's not because your friend bought bulls and made a lot of money that another one bought by bit, or because... Just because a certain fund or nation doesn't invest in a particular one doesn't mean it will repeat in the future.
So you have two paths to choose from: first, become an expert and thoroughly study the market where you're going to invest, or rely on a trusted professional expert to guide you. Just because something happened before doesn't always work; on the contrary, what's past is past, what's to come is unknown.
Okay, Daniel, and the second lesson is diversification. The topic of investment verification has been discussed extensively on this channel; we've recorded several videos on this subject and written numerous articles. What was observed at that time was that large banks, investment funds, and even most contemporary investors were betting heavily on a single market: the mortgage market in the United States.
It was a golden opportunity for one bank, making a lot of money because it's a very low-risk market. So they jumped in headfirst, diving into this market without worrying about diversification. The result was that many institutions went bankrupt, had to merge, were nationalized, and ultimately lost enormous fortunes because they did n't have the means.
Michael Banda understood back then that you shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket, and that's our lesson too. The suggestion is to diversify your investments. Your emergency fund should be in low-volatility assets with instant liquidity (daily liquidity). The portion of your assets intended for the long term should be diversified across various asset classes.
You can choose bank bonds, government bonds, private credit securities, and various other investment fund classes. In other words, it doesn't have to be all or nothing. A diversified portfolio composition yields better long-term results and significantly lower risk. That's it, and we strongly advocate for diversification on this channel.
The third lesson is that it's possible to make money in any crisis, even while most people lost a lot of money and went bankrupt, including professional financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, which merged with Bank of America (GE). There are several examples of Citibank, which almost went bankrupt, and a few others, like Michael Barry, who became a billionaire.
This is an example from 2008. Many people also made a lot of money short selling. We already have videos on this channel explaining how to make money short selling stocks. Short selling is when an investor doesn't own a stock, so they borrow it from investors who do and sell hundreds of shares. The more the stock falls or depreciates, the more money the investor makes, of course, the investor who sold short.
But if you want to know more, there's a whole video on this channel talking just about that. And finally, let's use a more detailed analogy, but because of what happened in Brazil in 2014 and 2015, those who held investments in fixed income indexed to inflation, paying a pre-fixed rate plus a fixed interest rate, made a lot of money.
In short, they earned in the fixed income market what few investors manage to earn in the variable income market. In other words, great opportunities also arise in major crises. And the fourth and final message we wish you is: don't trust the known too much, and don't trust the unknown too much. What this means is that in 2008, what was known was the mortgage market; it was the market everyone was investing in, everyone knew, everyone trusted, and everyone was there.
The result of the crisis in Brazil was that everyone sank. This mortgage market is not so widespread among... Individual investors, among the common investors, are those most well -known here: savings accounts, CDBs (Certificates of Deposit), private pension funds, in short, that traditional jargon, those basic products you find in every bank branch.
This does n't mean they are the best products, nor does it mean they are the lowest-risk products. Again, I repeat, the best thing to do is diversify and explore new opportunities such as private bonds, debentures, CRECI (Certificates of Real Estate Receivables), CRAs (Certificates of Real Estate Receivables), multi-market funds, in short, there is an infinity of financial assets in the market that you should know and try.
This video, folks, is for you to start thinking a little outside the box, looking at the financial market in a slightly different way. If you think this video helped you, give it a like, leave a comment praising it, and share the video with your friends and family. After all, you are helping other people.
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