저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
우드는 달러가 2025년 하락 후 레이거노믹스 시기처럼 반전할 수 있다고 주장하며, 금/M2 비율이 1970~80년대 인플레 정점 수준을 넘었다고 짚는다. 비트코인은 주요 자산군과 상관관계가 매우 낮아 자산배분상 분산 효과가 크다고 강조한다. 구리는 전기화 수요로 구조적 상승 요인이 있다고 보며, S&P500/오일 비율은 신고점을 향할 것으로 본다. 밸류에이션은 인플레 둔화 시 정당화될 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
If you look across the top line there, the correlation with most other asset classes, Bitcoin versus any other asset class, very low. Uh no correlation with bonds. Uh almost no correlation with gold and REITs. Um very low correlation with commodities. The highest correlation is with the S&P 500. And even that is a low correlation.
What this means is asset allocators um have a fiduciary duty to look at Bitcoin uh and other crypto assets uh for portfolio diversification. Kathy Wood opens by focusing on the US dollar, arguing that it's currently being misunderstood at this point in the economic cycle. While many believe the dollar is structurally weak after its decline through 2025, she suggests this outlook overlooks historical patterns and the importance of returns on invested capital.
Wood points back to the early 1980s during the Reagan era reforms when progrowth fiscal and regulatory policies sharply boosted returns on capital in the United States. As those returns outpaced the rest of the world, global capital flowed into US assets, fueling a strong rise in the dollar. According to Wood, today's policy environment mirrors and may even amplify that period, potentially setting the stage for an unexpected reversal in dollar weakness.
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Thanks for watching and enjoy the video. Dollar being so weak. Well, if we're right, the dollar is stabilizing here after a decline in uh 2025 and will reverse course much like it did during the early 80s. in the early 80s with regonomics and we think that this administration's policies are turbocharged regonomics.
Because of those policies, the dollar went up. Why? Because the return on invested capital in the United States went up relative to the returns elsewhere in the world. Uh so we would not be surprised to see a sizable increase in the dollar here which is completely away from consensus expectations uh and therefore very interesting to us between a lot of inflation indicators and the gold market.
Gold prices have more than doubled in the last two years. And uh here you can see what an extreme they have reached on this basis. So this is the gold market cap as a percent of USM2. US being the world's reserve currency. And you can see that we have surpassed the gold to M to ratio in the late 70s early 80s when inflation was raging at a double-digit rate.
and interest rates were into the double digits as well. Um, so that's interesting. There's only one other time that this ratio has been higher and it was during the Great Depression uh during the 30s when the gold price was fixed in the low $20 range and money supply was collapsing. So those two uh things are not true this time around.
The gold price has been going up and the money supply has been going up. And so we're trying to figure out what this means. Um one suggestion is that gold has uh has entered uh I I hate to say irrational exuberance territory, but that's the that's the prevailing phrase. Um maybe gold is nearly done with this bull run.
And um and then we have to ask ourselves because Bitcoin is considered digital gold. Has Bitcoin is it done for a cycle? And as everybody knows, the four-year cycle worry is out there. Well, here you can see the Bitcoin to gold ratio. Uh in a trend sense since 2020, um you can still say even though we did break the the last higher low, in a broader sense, you can say maybe this is still in an uptrend.
We shall see. Um but what we have found very interesting is on the next chart. What is the correlation uh between Bitcoin and various uh other asset classes? Gold being one of an important one of them. Well, you can see how low the correlation is. So a correlation of one means very highly correlated.
A correlation of zero means not correlated at all. A correlation of minus 1.0 means inversely correlated. When one goes up, the other one goes down. Uh this correlation since 20 is suggesting no correlation. And in fact, if you if you look across the top line there, the correlation with most other asset classes, Bitcoin versus any other asset class, very low.
Uh no correlation with bonds, uh almost no correlation with gold and reats. Um very low correlation with commodities. The highest correlation is with the S&P 500. And even that is a low correlation. Uh and you can look at uh the correlation uh between and among the various categories here. You know, Bitcoin, Bitcoin's correlations are very low.
And what this means is asset allocators um have a fiduciary duty to look at Bitcoin uh and other crypto assets uh for portfolio diversification because the lower the correlation the high higher when adding one of these low correlated assets to the others. uh adding means return per unit of risk probably will go up.
So we think this is a a great illustration of that metals to gold ratio turn around to confirm that we're in uh an upturn in the cycle. And it is for me the most interesting chart because you know these two the long-ear treasury bond yield in green and the metals to gold ratio have been so highly correlated in the past.
They've broken apart in recent years. Um so maybe we'll they'll meet somewhere in the middle during the next few years. Here's copper. copper is telling us, okay, maybe we're now resuming the cycle and a lot of the um a lot of manufacturing facilities uh anything going electric demands more and more copper including transportation.
So this is also a secular shift towards copper which should benefit the price. here to end uh are the what we've been monitoring just keeping us on our toes. The S&P to gold ratio still uh basing it's at the lower end of a a base that's been in place for the last 5 to 10 years. Uh we do not think it's going to end up like it did in the 70s.
uh we think instead that the oil the S&P to oil ratio is leading the way and that is heading for new peaks. That's very very bullish. We had if you look at 1980 through 2000 that's the strongest and longest bull market in history. Sure we had episodic um uh uh setbacks but uh the most powerful. And if we're right uh then that that the Trump administration is regonomics on steroids uh this should break out and we believe the S&P to gold ratio will follow.
Valuation remains a central issue and Wood tackles it head on. She examines the S&P 500's trailing price toearnings ratio in relation to inflation, pointing out the long-standing inverse relationship between the two. In the early 2000s, rising inflation coincided with shrinking valuation multiples, a pattern that also played out during the 2008 2009 period.
What stood out to many investors was that in the postco environment valuations briefly dropped to roughly 17 18 times earnings an unexpected outcome given the magnitude of monetary stimulus. This wood suggests may indicate that markets were already pricing in a renewed slowdown in inflation. As inflation later stabilized price to earnings ratios expanded defying widely held expectations.
Looking ahead, if inflation continues to trend lower, current valuations may be more justifiable than critics believe. More importantly, Wood stresses that elevated multiples are not required if earnings and revenue growth begin to accelerate meaningfully.
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