저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인은 ETF 자금 유입으로 주류화 단계에 진입했고 10만 달러 가능성을 언급하나 실사용보다 가치저장 자산 성격이 강하다. 후반부는 미세플라스틱이 혈액에서 검출되면 심장마비·뇌졸중·사망 위험이 약 4.5배 높다는 연구(NEJM, 34개월 추적)를 소개하며 플라스틱 용기 사용 자제를 말한다. 투자 관련 발언은 비트코인 중심이다.
다듬은 글
I don't have much thoughts on that but my two comments are that I talk to a lot of Bitcoin Traders and and folks that seem to have a very good pulse and touch on this Market I don't say that I I do because I don't really look at it every day but they seem to think that this thing is on a death march to 100K I'm not sure whether that price is realistic or not in the year but I will say that we're going to get to a Tipping Point where everybody really talks about this I still don't think we're there yet I think we're just at the beginning but when you see the inflows into these ETFs jakal it's like a very big deal because it just allows every mom and popop individual to buy some to the extent that they want to own it or they want to speculate on it whatever it is so I I think it's been a very big year and I think that psychologically it's proven a lot of folks wrong and it's a setup for something really constructive the other thing I'll say is that it's not just Bitcoin but as goes Bitcoin there are a handful of other things people are now speculating that there's going to be an ethereum ETF that gets approved as well because you know if you approve one there's probably legitimate cause to approve a few others so these things are becoming part of the financial Fabric and I think that that should not be underestimated and the is still taking action against certain Bad actors in crypto there were a couple of those this week but Bitcoin fredberg is incredibly resilient just on a technological basis the fact that it hasn't broken down under stress it hasn't had you know a denial of service type of attack or a government hasn't been able to capture 51% of the mining or or some great amount of it or just even be hacked in any way you have to be impressed by the the fundamental technology here at freeberg maybe You' speak to that level of success that this thing is so stable and trustworthy and reliable to date it's you know it's got a great incentive model as long as bitcoin price remains High the miners will still be there and the system will keep running if bitcoin price drops transaction fees will decline the value of mining will Decline and you know it kind of goes the other way as well I think the real question is in the last couple of years have we really seen seen a change in Bitcoin being used for transactions or for Commerce in any meaningful way I think the answer is still likely not no definitely not and it's really a stored value system and it's become this kind of stored value Asset freir this microplastics thing we talked about it on the show and uh since that time I refuse to open plastic bottles I'm doing all glass I'm getting rid of all this goddamn plastic I I already did glass bottles in my house because I'm cheap and I like to fill it from my water filter but we're uncovering more information and then I saw this headline this week that microplastics are in our blood streams in some cases and what the heck does that mean it's worse than that team of scientists in Italy collected samples from patients that had plaque removed from the cored artery it's a kind of common cardiac procedure where you get plaque that blocks up in your cored they go in they remove the plaque so a total of 304 patients agreed to have the plaque that was removed from their artery submitted for analysis and then what this team did is they took that plaque and they studied it to see how much plastic was found in that plaque and they used a bunch of measurement techniques to do this including electron microscopy and mass spec so they because it's really hard to find these molecules and microplastics or nanoplastics remember are less than 5 millim in size with a mean level of 21 microG per milligram of plaque roughly 1 per 50 is the ratio of plastic to plaque that they found which is really incredible because it shows that Plastics these little Nano and micr Plastics are accumulating good or incredible bad incredible bad that these micro Plastics these nanoplastics are accumulating in the human body now here's the the scary part they then did a followup 34 months later the patients that had plastic in their blood had a four and a half times higher Ratio or likelihood of having heart attack stroke or death from any cause so all of these major health effects were four and a half times elevated in patients that had plastic in their blood this was published in the New England Journal of Medicine if I didn't say it it really indicates that there is this kind of cumulative problem and that the cumulative problem is likely leading to really adverse Health outcomes and I'll just highlight one other paper from a team in Germany and Norway back in May of 2022 and this team tried to figure out how Plastics are causing adverse health effects in the body and they had a theory like let's put little microplastics or nanoplastics together with all the human cells that we know shake it up and see what happens and what they found were that these little plastic fragments were binding to dendritic cells and monocytes key cells in the immune system and when those cells were um Bound by plastic they released these cyto cans and the pro-inflammatory signals go through the roof it causes the immune system to go high wire increases inflammation and the cascading effects of that obviously can ultimately lead to many of the events that we're mentioning were measured in this set of patients in Italy so um again we're just starting to uncover these effects this concept that microplastics and nanoplastics that are accumulating let me just say these Plastics are mostly pet which is what we use to make plastic bottles that we drink water and drinks out of and PVC or polyvinyl chloride which is what a lot of our plastic plumbing and piping is made from and so as little tiny bits of these plastic materials either are exposed to sunlight and break off and end up in our water and food supply and we consume them they are slowly accumulating in in bodies and they may be driving inflammatory response they may be driving adverse Health outcomes we're really kind of tip of the iceberg and really studying this understanding and analyzing it but here's another really interesting empirical data set that highlights that this really is um pretty significant half the patients had it and of that half they had a four and a half times higher chance of dying or having a heart attack or a stroke in the 34 months that followed yeah the really scary data the thing the thing that that study said which was nuts is it looked like the the nanop particles the nanoplastics and microplastics were effectively acting as scaffolding for plaque so in in almost like it was a it was a shim that allowed it to grow the question is would it have grown faster than it would have otherwise that's even scarier so I did not like reading that paper that really freaked me out really really freaked me out I was drinking water from plastic water bottles this week and every time I drink water out of a plastic bottle now I'm like like nervous every time I take a Si you're not supposed to double your the risk of all cause mortality by drinking yeah aiji water you know what I mean 4 and a2x 4 and a half it's crazy in 34 months think about the cumulative effect over time longer perod yeah imagine drinking water out of a plastic bottle thinking you're doing the right thing and then trotting over to the recycling bin you know yeah and you do that for 20 years you may be killing yourself well there it is so wait what's the if you if you if the water glass bottles you must use you cannot use plastic you just canot over no plastic no plastic you got to stop it's over we're drinking it's done glass cans good plastic steel stainless steel is fine just like I mentioned when we talked about this a few weeks ago the carbon footprint the environmental cost the cash cost is much higher with all these alternatives to plastic so there are big challenges with respect to having some big massive response to Plastics used in our supply but you know living in the luxury world that we all get to live in we get to have that choice and we'll make that choice but it's a real problem for Humanity because Plastics are so ubiquitous in so many things and they've they've enabled they've enabled affordability of consumer goods this is such honestly like all you have to do is have glass bottles or carry a water bottle with you like I have a Contigo one I like I carry it with me I empty it I
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