Super Investors Seth Klarman and Terry Smith | Investing During Inflation | Part 2 | Stock Market

요약 보기

인플레이션 상황에서 투자자가 어떻게 대응해야 하는지를 두 거장의 조언 중심으로 정리한 영상입니다. 결론: 두 투자자 모두 인플레이션과 금리 인상이 시장에 큰 위험이라고 보며, 시장 방향을 예측하기보다 재무가 탄탄하고 경쟁력 있는 우량 기업을 보유하라고 조언합니다. 세스 클라먼: 인플레이션이 얼마나 심각할지 알 수 없으며, 인플레이션과 금리 대폭 인상 가능성이 금융시장에 실질적 위험이라고 경고합니다. 그는 연준의 공격적 통화정책과 과잉 유동성 속에서 많은 투자자가 위험을 인식하지 못하고 있다고 지적하고, 이에 대비해 금리 상승 환경에서 이익을 볼 수 있는 헤지 자산을 매입했다고 밝혔습니다. 클라먼의 투자 전략: 시장 향방을 예측하는 것은 시간 낭비이며 예측에 기반한 투자는 투기라고 봅니다. 대신 재무 상태가 견고해 경기침체를 버틸 수 있고, 불황기에 약한 경쟁사를 제치고 점유율을 높일 수 있는 최고의 기업과 매력적 업종을 사서 보유하는 접근이 더 합리적이라고 주장합니다. 강한 브랜드, 독점적 제품, 낮은 원가 구조를 가진 기업이 특히 매력적이라고 언급했습니다. 테리 스미스: 글로벌 주식시장 하락의 원인은 인플레이션 급등과 이에 따른 금리 인상, 그리고 경기침체 위험이라고 진단합니다. 금리 인상이 인플레이션을 얼마나 잡을지, 얼마나 지속될지는 모르겠으나 낙관적이지 않다고 밝혔습니다. 금리는 특히 이번처럼 수요 초과가 아닌 원인으로 생긴 인플레이션에 대해 무딘 도구라고 평가합니다. 테리 스미스의 기업 분석: 인플레이션은 원가 상승으로 기업 이익을 압박하며, 이에 대한 최선의 방어책은 높은 매출총이익률입니다. 그의 포트폴리오 기업들은 작년 평균 매출총이익률이 약 60%로, 대형 상장사 평균 약 40%보다 높았다고 밝혔습니다. 원가 10% 상승이 그의 기업들 수익성에 미치는 영향은 평균 기업보다 훨씬 작다고 설명했습니다. 스미스의 회피 대상: 낮은 매출총이익률과 높은 고정비를 가진 기업은 위험하며, 인플레이션기에는 Target, Walmart 같은 기업을 피하라고 조언합니다. 영상 종료 시 시청자에게 구독과 좋아요를 요청하며, 이 시리즈가 인플레이션기 투자에 대한 다부작 시리즈의 2편임을 알립니다.

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01. he biggest worry for the global markets right now which has led to monetary tightening from the central banks everywhere inflation in most countries is breaking all records and reaching historically high levels so for an investor what does it mean when inflation is shattering all past records should you stay invested or pull out or if you invest what should you be careful about in today's video let's look at what super investors such as Warren Buffet Charlie manga Howard marks Seth klaman lilu Terry Smith have to say about the impact of inflation on investing and what they advise to do in terms of high inflation this is part two of multi-part series on investing during inflation in this part we will cover the advice from Seth clarman and Terry Smith before we start do subscribe to get the next videos in this series let's dive in first let's start with Seth clarman the value investing Guru that many follow two key pieces of advice from Mr clarman on inflation are first in his latest letter to investors he mentions that we don't know how bad the current bout of inflation will be but we believe that mounting inflation and the related possibility of materially higher interest rates are posing a real danger to financial markets so according to him it's not really clear on how bad the inflation situation actually is and what it will take to bring it under control he further shares that against a backdrop of Relentless money printing a very active Federal Reserve many investors have been loathed to sleep unaware of and unfocused on risks according to Mr clarman to protect against continuing inflation and the prospect of rising rates we have purchased Hedges that stand to gain in such an environment second in terms of where to invest during inflationary period according to Mr clarkman in reality Nova knows what the market will do trying to predict it is a waste of time and investing based upon that prediction is a speculative undertaking So He suggests buying and holding the best companies in the most attractive sectors is a more logical approach compared to seeking to predict the future this can involve purchasing stocks that have solid Financial positions so they can survive on economic downturn they may even be able to improve their competitive positions at the expense of weaker Rivals during a period of tough operating conditions so that they can take advantage of a subsequent recovery similarly it could mean buying companies with the obvious economic modes for instance companies with strong Brands unique products or that enjoy lower levels of costs versus Rivals could hold significant appeal now let's look at what Terry Smith another value investing Guru and founder of fun Smith has to say about investing during High inflation two key pieces of advice from Mr Smith are first in his half year update letter to investors Mr Smith shared that the cause of the downturn in global Equity markets is obvious the upsurge in inflation and the consequent need to rate interest rates and risk a recession he further states that I have no insight into how severe or persistent the rise in interest rates will need to be to quell inflation but I am not optimistic interest rates as a tool to combat inflation are a blunt instrument at the best of times and I suspect more so in this instant instance when the inflation has not been caused by demand exceeding Supply during an economic boom second Mr Smith also discusses the impact of inflation on equities by sharing that inflation Rising interest rates and an increasingly likely recession have two obvious effects on Equity Investments fundamental effects and valuation effects he discusses these effects and connects it to the performance of some of his Holdings inflation causes an increase in the cost of ingredients components and other inputs with constitute companies cost of goods sold the best defense against this inflation is a high gross margin the difference between sales revenue and cogs he shares that on average last year the companies in his portfolio had a gross margin of 60 percent compared with about 40 percent for the average large listed companies also he shared that 10 rise in Cox clearly has much less effect on the profitability of companies in his portfolio than average it is clear that the high and sustainable gross profit margins of our companies provide a robust line of defense on the contrary the combination of low gross margins and high fixed costs is dangerous and Mr Smith suggests avoiding such companies for example Target and Walmart During inflationary periods that's it from us for now hope you enjoy listening to the advice from Super investors please smash that like button and be sure to subscribe to get the next videos in this series on investing during inflation thanks for watching and we will see you in the next video foreign