저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
요약 보기
기업 이익은 명목 GDP 성장의 1~1.5배를 따르며, 주가는 결국 이익에 연동된다. 인도 명목 GDP가 연 15%(실질 9%+물가 6%) 성장하면 기업 이익은 약 17~18% 성장할 것으로 보고, 이에 따라 인도 장기 강세장을 전망한다. 인도 경제 성장은 관용 문화, 인재 등 구조적 요인으로 인해 필연적이라고 주장한다. 영상은 중간에 끊겨 있으며 개별 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
I feel is I first want when I want to talk about Indian equity markets I want to first talk about Indian economic growth. So a lot of people TELL ME WHY ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH INTEREST IN EQUITY markets but I want to explain that all valuations are the slave earnings. What I want to say is that the valuation of any stock ultimately depends on the earnings of the company.
Right after that and earnings are a function of economic growth. It is a recorded fact of economic history that the profit growth of the corporate sector in a country is between 1 to 1.5 times nominal GDP growth. Nominal GDP growth is the GDP growth plus the rate of inflation. Right? So if I say that India is going to have 9% GDP growth and 6% inflation.
So 15% nominal GDP growth. Now the corporate sector's profit growth is going to be 1 to 1.5 times. Generally it's 1.2 maybe 1.1 1.3. So that means what that if India is going to have 15% nominal GDP growth for the next 5 to 10 years of profit growth in India for the corporate sector will between 17 to 18%.
On an average some years it could be 12 some years it could be 25. So therefore a longerterm bull market in India is dependent on the growth in corporate earnings. The growth in corporate earnings is dependent on normal GDP growth. So therefore before I talk of the long bull market in India I want to talk about India's economic growth because I went to a lot of places and students tell me so why you give us a lecture India's economic growth.
we are concerned with equity markets. So I think it's my duty to explain first the relevance of India's economic growth to India's equity markets. Just as I said the bull market in equities present and future is a direct derivative of India's economic growth. Right? Now I use the word inevitability of India's economic growth.
I have an opinionated character. I had an opinion in 1985 that term what maybe I'm a qualified chart accountant. I go and invest money in the stock market or so my father said where's the money that you will invest right? But I was an opinionate character. I thought stock market will do well. I went there.
I'm an opinionate character. I think India's globe is inevitable. You have just seen the trailer. The picture is actually going to start. And why do I feel it is inevitable? I know some of you must have been students of chemistry. I have been a very bad chemistry student. Right? But the fact is that there is a chemistry which leads to an outcome, a combination of factors.
Right? Now there is a combination of factors in India. I think some are products of history, some are cultural. Most are irreversible. Which gives me the feeling that India's economic growth is inevitable right and I mean much higher growth than what we have not the 5% 6% 7% but 10% why do I feel so I feel why India is basically a society of tolerance see it was this tolerance which brought the Mughal emperors into India but what is the modern world about the modern world is about the ability to anticipate change accept it prepare for it and benefit from it and Richard minds cannot accept change if I am taught at home that THIS IS THE ONLY TRUTH DON'T BELIEVE ANYTHING ELSE right or you are brought up in a very you know confined cultural fact you know you will your mind will never accept change but because we and basically Hindu and Hindu religion is the most tolerant and open we accept change that's why we're very good at mathematics and science in the modern world societies which are not if Saudi Arabia cannot accept change cannot grow it's a fact if you know Burma can't accept change Burma can't grow so I think it is the culture of tolerance which is which is very very important for India's place in a modern world right then we have skill sets I don't know how to say how how skillful Indians are and surely it does not only belong to the Indians to the mittals and the yogis it belongs to every Indian and I can give you an anecdote that you know diabetes is the most researched disease why because the rich get it taken a photo of drugs the medicines have been taken every day and India is the diabetes center of the world and it's a lifesty right what they have found is that Indians are most diabetic pro so they did research They said is it got to do with diet?
Is it got to do with location? But you know a company did research where anybody place where the Indian population was more than half% worldwide they did research they found Indians are most prone because they said Indians are genetically prone to diabetes. So Indians can be so successful worldwide the skill sets only cannot be of non-resident. So Indians are genetically prone to skills. So
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