저자: Kevin · 외국인
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비트코인이 0으로 갈 가능성을 기술주 상관관계, 금, 나스닥 변동성, M2 통화량 세 가지 프록시로 분석. 현재 변동성이 낮아 추가 하락 압력이 있으나 0까지 가려면 기술주 급락과 통화 긴축이 동시에 필요해 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 다만 크립토 대출·거래소 리스크가 커서 보이스저(Voyager) 파산을 예로 들며 거래소 자산 인출·콜드스토리지 보관을 권고.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here could bitcoin go to zero and what are the actual components that hold bitcoin together that is what makes bitcoin move in this video i'm going to reveal to you the impacts of what certain things in the market have on the price of bitcoin and these are going to be rules of thumb that you can write down i'm also going to show you how you can be aware at least try to be aware of potential dangers brewing at your brokerages folks let's get into this video after reminding you that this video is sponsored by me get 50 off with the coupon codes the link down below in the programs on building your wealth we've got a massive lecture set coming out this week before i leave town on friday to help reward all existing course members with brand new content totally for free and it's content that you've been asking for here's a chart that studied a proxy investment or a group of three things to try to understand what makes bitcoin tick and this is made up of three things which are quite interesting we're gonna write those down here so we know first it's made up of a one two one correlation to tech stocks so if tech stocks go down 10 we would expect bitcoin to go down 10 percent number two if gold goes down by 10 we actually expect btc to go up by five percent so you've got a little bit of an inverse relationship to gold uh then the third aspect is if volatility on the nasdaq goes up or i'll we'll say up 50 percent then we expect a 4 000 movement in btc and then the fourth thing that affects bitcoin and gives us an idea of would potentially btc go bankrupt is the following chart is the chart that shows this theory that as global money supply goes up much like in the stock market you see this correlation as well as global money supply goes up you tend to see the bitcoin market go up substantially take a look at this as we print money over here you get a bitcoin boom we print less money you get a bitcoin trough we print more money over here during the covered pandemic you get a crypto boom again right february of 2021 over here representing the peak of around 69 000.
but only bitcoin really marries to these correlations and you have to take them all together so it's not like we could just look at gold and see oh gold's down 10 bitcoins up 5 on the day the way to look at this is very simple you want to kind of make a conclusion that's simple from this if tech goes down and gold goes up which is often a fear trade though it doesn't always have to be and volatility goes down so we get sort of a bleed out of volatility you're going to have a bad time in crypto crypto equals bad and obviously we know a few of these are true we know that the money supply of money being printed is going down we know that tech stocks are going down and we know that there's fear of potentially going into recession though gold isn't really behaving normally right now it's actually going down but that's offset by the fact that the other thing that's happening that's weird is volatility isn't really up see usually when we have crashes in the stock market we tend to see the vix spike and we're at pretty dang low levels in the stock market right now but take a look at this we still haven't gotten those cathartic flush outs that cut that occur when we have massive spikes on the vix like over here during the covet pandemic in march at the end and beginning of 2018 during the taper tantrum and of course the great recession over here volatility has it has slightly moved up back to a more sort of normal line here a normal average but it's by no means spiking and that's actually bad for btc so a lot of the movement in btc's price can be traced back to correlation to tech volatility and m2 money supply if anything in my opinion yes this does potentially signal more potential downside because we're not going to get more money printing we could potentially see tech stocks bleed further in a slow way which doesn't necessarily signal the best but if volatility all of a sudden spikes up we actually could see btc move up as well since it's mo since it moves with volatility so it doesn't feel like we are going to go all the way down to zero because that would take some substantial bleeding out of tech at the same time as volatility actually bleeding out and no money printing which of course we have which would be really quite odd to see tech stocks continue to plummet without volatility skyrocketing to somewhat buffer bitcoin a bit anyway long story short based on this proxy chart it would take a lot more pain and markets to actually see bitcoin really go to zero now could bitcoin go down to five thousand dollars let's say and cause substantial more pain for usdc and stable coins and other brokerages absolutely in fact paying for brokerages is exactly probably where you have your most exposure in fact take a look at this this was a video posted and filmed back in march of 2021 look at this video from march of 2021 called the complete collapse of cryptocurrencies the stablecoin disaster just listen to about these 10 seconds here and which company which i kind of nickname in a very similar way i suggest might go bankrupt over and over again we have no idea let's say voyager goes bankrupt okay voyager goes bankrupt because they're like wow we just held all these margin losses well cryptify is probably going to have some issues as well cryptify of course being a reference to blockfy and that was posted a year and two months ago and folks just the day before voyager digital suspended withdrawals on june 23rd june 23rd voyager suspended withdrawals take a look at what we talked about in the course member live stream on the the june 22 course member live stream individuals ask me hey what do you think about voyager and what did i say but oh customers about 5.48 yeah look at that they're they're not they're in the way they're our money they're out of money this is based on their march financials we knew in march well after the three ac issue that the exposure voyager digital had on their balance sheet was very sensitive to even a nominal loss and that 3ac bankruptcy that hedge fund that filed bankruptcy that once had 18 billion in assets under management basically tanked voyager digital and so we said that the day before they suspended withdrawals well folks despite getting a 485 million dollar bailout from sam bankman freed who's deemed to be the j-power of cryptocurrencies voyager digital has filed for bankruptcy they were out of money in march after the 3ac disaster that came thereafter we already knew they were tight in march we saw three ac that was the icing on the cake and now we saw crypto prices collapse even more and the numbers we saw on these balance sheets have collapsed now they only have 1.3 billion dollars in crypto assets for their customers 350 million dollars of cash held on behalf of individuals accounts and of course they're owed 650 million dollars from 3ac here you can see tweets from the ceo who's actually been on the channel to discuss voyager digital a year ago and one of the biggest things i hit him on was how do we know that there isn't a massive risk with your lending and he says oh but don't worry we lent to institutions that are very savvy that ended up being 3ac which was a complete and utter disaster but oh well here the ceo of voyager digital says today we begin the voluntary financial restructuring process to protect assets on the platform maximize value for all stakeholders especially customers they say they're actively pursuing remedies from 3ac but you know what they say you can't take blood from a turnip and customers with crypto in their account will receive in exchange a combination of the crypto they had in their account proceeds from 3ac which are going to be zero and common shares in a newly reorganized voyager company and new voyager tokens well new voyager tokens are going to be worthless 3ac proceeds are going to be worthless and i don't know how many people are going to trust the new voyager digital so probably worthless as well so in other words you're maybe going to get some of your crypto back and see here you can see some of the responses on twitter you can maximize stakeholder value by giving me my effing crypto back can't really blame that at all it's also worth noting though and i thought this was a very interesting note it's important to note that as part of this announcement we are confirming that customers with dollars in their accounts not stable coins dollars will receive access to those funds after a reconciliation and fraud prevention process is completed with their banks wow folks wow wow wow wow that is absolutely wild so is it likely that btc could go down more well you have the recipe if we end up seeing gold go up volatility stay low and tech continue to go down btc could go down as well causing more havoc in the crypto lending sector but it's the crypto lending sector that's first to go to zero and we just saw that process start with tara luna three ac voyager digital block feis on the chopping block we're probably going to see a lot more companies with issues folks good luck out there but if you've got money on an exchange personally i would make a choice i would either take the money off the exchange you know get out of coinbase get out everything get out of everything i'd get out of everything or and you could do that by selling your coins or if you want to huddle get your keys that is get your coins off exchange put them in cold storage forget that you have them suck them away and protect yourself get your keys not your keys not your crypto and that's why you gave them your keys to your stable coins or your crypto it's a big dirty lesson that they can lose it it's very frustrating good luck out there and we'll see in the next one
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