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2nd. First, let me start with some particulars. For the large cap ETF, Granny, the the price as of February 27th was 24.96 and total assets of 4.1 billion. For Granny J, which is the small mid cap Granny, the price as of February 27th was 27.16 and total assets of 389 million dollars. And for the income Granny or Granny I, the latest price was 19.95 and total assets of 58 million dollars.
Let's cover performance for the past week. Granny uh declined 0.28% last week compared to a 0.4 40 14 basis points. For Granny J, uh Granny J was down 2.3% compared to down 93 basis points for the Russell 2500 or underperformance of 143 basis points. And for the income Granny, the price uh the total return was -0.17 compared to a 0.42% decline for the S&P or 21 basis points of relative outperformance.
Uh so, let's look at year-to-date. On a year-to-date basis, Granny is up 0.89% compared to 0.68 for the S&P, which is 21 basis points of outperformance. For Granny J, uh Granny J is up 6.39% compared to 7.56% for the Russell 2500, a relative underperformance of 117 basis points. And for Granny Income or Granny I, up 0.07% compared to a 0.68% gain for the S&P, or 61 basis points underperformance.
Okay, but let's direct our attention to macro cuz there's a lot to talk about. But the first is really the idea that markets bottom on bad news, and keep that in mind. We believe and we've been talking about how we believe March is likely an up month for equities. And on over the weekend, the US began combat operations against Iran.
So, the question of course in your mind is, does the Iran war cancel an up March? Our answer is no. We still expect March to be an up month. And as I said, markets bottom on bad news. And that's what we see, that markets tend to sell the build-up, and then buy the invasion. These are the last eight major conflicts from the Vietnam War all the way to last year's Iran conflict.
Similarly, we could see this with Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin actually fell on Saturday, uh as combat operations were announced, and then began to rally. And in fact, Bitcoin is now over 70,000, which is a multi-month high. I think one of the reasons for this is the market's not expecting this to be a war that engulfs.
Similarly, markets are betting on this being a short conflict. In fact, um uh probability of a ceasefire by March 31st is over 50%. And the VIX is saying this, too. Cuz if you look at the light blue, that's the VIX last week, compared to the dark blue, which was VIX yesterday, I'm sorry, on March 2nd, and you can see the VIX spiked.
But, the month the VIX futures contracts month one month forward all the way through four month forward are barely changed. So, the market sees this conflict as a short-term shock. And finally, uh one of the risks, of course, is the closure of the Sea of Hormuz where a lot of crude oil natural gas flow through.
And the market does see the odds of it closing it of it being closed at 61%, which seems high. But, keep in mind oil didn't really react as sharply as you thought because it rose to $75 initially, uh but it's currently 72, which is about a 10% gain. So, I think March is likely not one month. And there's other reasons.
Um I think the mag seven valuation reset has already happened. We can see this on the PEs that mag seven PEs are lower than a lot of consumer staple stocks now. We also know tech is one of the most shorted sectors today. Um you know, I think the software I'm getting a lot of that bad news has been priced in as well because um software stocks have begun to rebound on a volume spike.
And in fact, uh it's one of the highest volumes ever, and you can see software is right at an important trend line. And uh we have an FOMC meeting later this month, but I think the inflation data is pretty tame. Um and the economy remains healthy. The ISM manufacturing for February came at 52. It Keep in mind, it spent three years below 50, and the last two months have been solidly above 50, the highest reading since 2022, so four-year highs.
And as And you've seen this chart before. Basically, the ISM peaking is really more coincident with the market top. But, the current readings of ISM are associated with markets in midstream. We've got more data for this week of March 2nd, including ISM Services, Fed Beige Book, and jobs report for February and January retail sales.
Uh, another thing that we've talked about is the crypto winter is likely ending. That's very good news for the crypto stocks, but also uh, a good risk-on market signal. And finally, March probably is favorable not month, and I've covered this before that the first 5 days of January are positive, and January is a positive month.
Well, that's 36 times in the last 75 years. And on average March is a positive month. Up 2%, that's 24% annualized, so it's pretty good. And and you can string it together with April and May. Uh, in total, a pretty good 3-month stretch. So, let's talk about Granny stock performance now. And looking at individual names, the top five performers for the Granny Y, Granny Original, and Granny I were Netflix, GE Vernova, Texas Pacific Land Group, Amgen, and Costco.
And uh, the bottom five were 10K, Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, PNC, and American Express. So, a lot of financials. Um, on the Granny J side, top five performers are IonQ, United Therapeutics, MP Materials, Albemarle, Bloom Energy. And the bottom five are Armstrong, Pure Storage, Donaldson, Western Alliance Bank, and Array Technologies.
So, uh, and let's look at themes. Top is seasonality. The second is millennials. Um, and then cybersecurity. So, . Bye.
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