저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 금 강세장이 끝나지 않았으며 계속된다고 봄. 금이 5,000달러를 넘었지만 4,000~3,000으로 조정될 수도, 2~3만 달러까지 갈 수도 있다고 언급. 화폐는 장기적으로 구매력이 떨어지므로 귀금속 보유를 권장하며 본인도 매달 매수. 중앙은행 정책은 돈 찍기 경향이 있고 월가 이해관계에 영향받는다고 비판. 단기 조정은 큰 상승 추세 안의 일시적 조정으로 봄.
다듬은 글
I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished. I think it will continue. Now, can it you know, we went over $5,000 per oz. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes. But it can also go up to 20, 30,000. I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years, and I buy every month some.
And I also tell people that they should own some precious metals. Because if they don't own it, they trust central banks. And look at the characters that sit in these central banks. Would you trust them? Definitely not. But but um Veteran macro investor Marc Faber, who is well known for his pessimistic views on international markets, has long cautioned that rising debt levels and excessive money creation will eventually devalue paper currencies.
He frequently cites in which hard assets such as gold and silver have served as dependable sources of value during unstable economic times. Although there have already been notable increases in gold prices, Faber notes that volatility is a normal aspect of any major cycle. Even significant pullbacks should be seen as brief corrections inside a much larger upward move, rather than as the conclusion of the trend.
In certain situations, gold may significantly retrace before picking up steam, particularly as markets adapt to changing investor sentiment and economic conditions. Faber speculates that structural problems with the world economy, such as currency depreciation, geopolitical unpredictability, and unmanageable debt may eventually drive gold prices significantly higher.
In severe circumstances, long-term forecasts that are debated in macro circles see prices rising to levels well above present expectations, indicating a significant change in the world monetary system. . Share your thoughts on the comments in the comments below. My preference is to own precious metals.
But I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods, because you know, you go into a department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something. And for that unit of account, paper money is suitable. But it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value.
Because the purchasing power of money, and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the '50s and '60s when I was growing up, and the prices I have to pay now. Uh of course, paper money has lost purchasing power. On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills, and they are all dead over, or I put it all in gold, then the purchasing power was probably better maintained.
Do you understand? We're still accumulating interest. Yeah. Uh so the calculations are not so easy. Mhm. But uh in general, if you look at history, the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero. Always. Because when problems arise in a social system that knows money, the solution to the problems the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default.
But these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians will not choose them. Because the the principle concern of a ruler, a king or a lord or an emperor, or a democracy is to stay in power, for the party to stay in power. So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems, and they say to themselves, "Well, uh we'll solve that issue later." Mhm.
But once you embark on money printing, and this I want to observe, and really emphasize, once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008, you cannot stop it without significant pain. Mhm. And the significant pain is avoided by printing more. Now, in the theory of economics, in the classical theory, it's shown that you need to print increasing quantity to keep the system going.
Like as you know, the interest payments on the government debt has gone through the roof. And it will continue to go up. And soon it could be the entire budget. And Yeah. at that time, what else do you want than print money? I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years.
And I buy every month some. And I also tell people that uh they should own some precious metals. Because if they don't own it, they trust central banks. And look at the characters that sit in these central banks. Would you trust them? Definitely not. But but um I'm also a holder of dollars, because I have a financial business.
And I buy and sell securities. And occasionally I have liquidity uh because of my views, and occasionally I have liquidity because I sold a position that we own, and so forth. Anyway, the bulk is still nowadays in US dollars. I have some portfolios which I value in euros. And I have some portfolios I value in Swiss francs.
And the valuations will fluctuate a lot, depending on the assets. And it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. I as I said, I have a very large exposure into precious metals. But the time may come where I would say, "I put all in precious metals." I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs.
They have 80% of the assets in gold and gold uh in precious metals. Paper money is helpful for daily transactions, but Marc Faber thinks it is unreliable for long-term asset preservation. According to him, governments tend to print more fiat money during economic downturns, rather than permitting challenging but essential corrections like defaults or tighter monetary policies, which causes fiat money to steadily lose value.
He adds that it is exceedingly difficult to stop large-scale money production once it has begun. In order to prevent short-term suffering, political pressure frequently forces governments to continuously supply additional liquidity, which eventually undermines a currency even more. Faber has long advised holding a percentage of wealth in precious metals due of this tendency.
He views gold and silver as a type of financial protection, something that can help retain value as paper money loses purchasing power, even though he still uses multiple currencies for everyday necessities and business. Now, let's get back and hear his following words. I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished.
I think it will continue. Now, can it you know, we went over $5,000 per oz. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes. But it can also go up to 20, 30,000. Uh I think Kevin Walsh is not a money printer. I think he's basically a reasonable man. And I've listened to some of his speeches. He has deep knowledge of economics.
Unlike Bernanke and Yellen, she had no clue about She's clueless about anything. But uh And Powell is a better I mean, I I've been critical of the central bank for the last 40 years. Whereby I always said, "Greenspan is a highly intelligent man intellectually." He has his shortcomings, but as an intellect, he's brilliant.
He was a horrible forecaster, and uh relatively poor economist, as a economist in the in his profession. He had like no clients left when he closed his firm and became Fed Fed chairman. But he was suitable as Fed chairman, because he suited You have to understand, Wall Street is very powerful. The money in America is very powerful.
Do you think that Wall Street likes to have declining asset prices? No. Their fees come from the size of the assets, not the quality of the assets. The size. And they will always wish that the Fed prints money. They will You will never find a Wall Street economist that really tells the public that the Fed is making a huge mistake, that they should tighten monetary policy and see asset prices drop 30% because then they would become affordable.
Why Why is the housing market not doing all that well in terms of sales volume? Because houses are too expensive. Nobody can afford them except [clears throat] the 1%. Yeah. Yeah. That is affordability is on the Trump. Of course, he talks the whole day about things he has no clue about. He said he would make everything affordable.
No, he's making it more expensive. In my view, he will choose the lesser of evils. You also have to understand, Wells comes from a money family, not himself, but his father-in-law and his wife will be the heir of Estee Lauder, correct? I believe so, yeah. And they are billionaires and their friends are billionaires.
And believe me, the stock market is now down. Do you think the wealthy donors of Trump are all calling in up and say, "Oh, you're doing great in Iran?" No, most people have no interest at all to go to war in Iran. Yeah, the the the US has nothing to fear of Iran. Now, did they go in to protect Israel?
Yeah, maybe or maybe Israel blackmailed Trump and so forth. I don't know. But for sure, the US had nothing to fear from Israel than from Iran. Nothing. Mhm. And most rich people in America, that I can tell you, when they see their portfolios down 10% in the months of March, they're not going to be very happy.
According to Marc Faber, there is still a long way to go in the gold bull market. Thus, he does not think it is finished. He does, however, make it apparent that the ascent will not be easy. Gold may yet see significant declines, possibly falling to lower ranges before resuming its long-term advance, even if it has already surpassed extremely high levels.
He believes that insignificant bull markets this type of volatility is very typical. The larger picture is more important since the current trend, which is fueled by economic imbalances and global monetary policy, may eventually cause gold prices to rise significantly. Additionally, he turns the conversation to central banks and policy makers, contending that their choices are frequently impacted by strong financial interests rather than just sound economic reasoning.
He continues to be generally skeptical of central banking during the past few decades, even while he concedes that some people in the system might be informed or well-meaning. Because of this, he feels that major financial actors have little motivation to support measures that would drastically cut asset prices, even though such corrections would make items like housing more affordable for the average individual.
Rather, easy money and liquidity keep driving up prices, making many things unaffordable for the majority of people. According to him, this explains why markets like real estate struggle with affordability prices have increased above what average consumers can afford. .
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