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R alio has just sold over $870 Million worth of his stock Holdings the legendary investor has made big changes to Bridgewater Associates portfolio positioning in q1 of 2024 this follows recent comments from Ray doio on the global debt situation he stated he was concerned about treasury bonds because of the high debt levels which high interest rates are adding to in this video we will look at how he is adapting his hedge funds portfolio to his shifting global economic Outlook let's start by looking at what positions Ray Delio has been selling and why according to his 13f filing for the first quarter of 2024 Ray doio cut his Holdings in many major companies including Proctor and Gamble Walmart Costco Coca-Cola Pepsi McDonald's and Visa these were some of Ray Doo's largest positions the adjustments amounted to about $377 million in sales in q1 2024 so what is he buying instead technology stocks he increased his Holdings in major tech companies like alphabet Nvidia meta and Microsoft he bought nearly a billion dollars worth of shares in these companies today today over $2 billion of the Bridgewater Associates portfolio is in just these four Tech Giants Mr Delio's portfolio is clearly moving away from consumer staple stocks stocks that depend heavily on the consumer and their spending patterns towards technology stocks that are benefiting from excitement about new themes like AI Doo also built a huge $15.89 million position in apple he built this from almost nothing in just the first quarter of 2024 a few weeks later Apple announced Apple intelligence it is a new feature that adds artificial intelligence to Apple products which is expected to drive sales and stimulate demand Apple will launch the new iPhone 16 with apple intelligence this fall boosting investor excitement this marked Apple's official entry into the AI race Apple's stock that had been experiencing some choppy price action throughout 2022 and 2023 immediately soared following the announcement of their new AI features so why is ralo making this big pivot from consumer stocks towards tech stocks one major concern he has recently stated is the risk of a US debt crisis he specifically mentioned that he is concerned about the softening demand to meet supply for US Treasury bonds he believes that the US debt levels are too high relative to the size of the economy and that this is going to translate into higher interest rates in the United States indeed the United States debt load has grown to be about a fifth larger than the size of its economy and many academic studies show a link between high debt and higher interest rates a 2003 study published by William Gail and Peter orog confirms this in fact interest rates in the United States have already risen substantially over the last couple of years reaching the highest level in over 15 years and Ray Delio recently mentioned that international buyers of US Treasury bonds could dry up and that this could push interest rates in the United States even higher this isn't just a US problem interest rates in most developed economies have been rising violently over the last couple of years if Ray Doo's concerns materialize it could lead to a continuation of this interest rate climb in many developed economies and this could put pressure on businesses and consumers higher interest rates means higher mortgage payments so less affordable housing more expensive car loans and higher interest on credit card debt all of these things squeeze the consumer and means they are likely to try and cut spending in other areas of their life so for stocks like McDonald Walmart and Costco whose revenues rely almost entirely on consumer spending Rising interest rates could bring about a tougher economic environment for these business models higher interest rates also simply means that these companies have more expensive financing these companies often take on debt in order to fund new projects if interest rates are higher it makes it less attractive for these companies to fund new projects that can lead to companies delaying or completely cutting off new Investments as a result of higher interest rates so not only do higher interest rates directly impact consumer spending by increasing the costs of everyday Goods but they also lead to a slower economy which can also stifle consumer spending this is why doio has moved away from consumer stocks and towards us tech stocks like Google or Microsoft he wants to reduce risks from high debt and high borrowing costs so he's focusing on parts of the economy that are being driven by completely different themes like the rise of artificial intelligence there's a few reasons why this is smart and a few reasons why it's not let's start with the positives first tech companies especially in AI operate globally they tap into markets and revenue streams Beyond just us consumers second these companies will also serve various Industries including manufacturing retail and financial services this broadens their customer base and protects against local downturns a recent report by Accenture breaks down a projection of $14 trillion of gross value added GBA by 2035 with estimates for ai's impact on specific Industries third these companies have higher profit margins than most other sectors of the economy high profitability is something that financial markets often reward and finally Tech firms have massive cash piles this could make them less sensitive to changes in interest rates for example Nvidia currently holds about $31 billion Apple $67 billion and alphabet a whopping $150 billion of cash this means these tech companies can effectively Finance any project they want without needing to borrow money at high interest rates but now the negatives first US tech companies are among the most expensive in the world on a PE ratio basis these companies have an average PE ratio of 30 which is about 50% more expensive than any other US Stock and around two times more expensive than your average Chinese stock as we've discussed in previous episodes this is a risk to holding technology stocks today if the premium that investors are paying today to own US tech stocks deflates it could lead to a pretty substantial underperformance of these stocks second ralio could be wrong if if interest rates around the world begin to fall instead of continuing to rise it could lead to less pressure on the consumer and the global economy this would benefit the very stocks that he sold and it could make investors rotate out of overvalued technology stocks into more classic consumer-based companies whether you believe that Ray doia will be proven correct or not you can trade all of the stocks that we mentioned in this video at capital.com
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