저자: FernandoUlrich · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 레알 기준 사상 최고치에 근접했지만 아직 2017년 과열 수준은 아니며, 추가 상승 가능성과 과열 경고 신호를 함께 점검해야 한다는 영상. 가격 과열 지표: 달러 기준 가격은 200일 이동평균 대비 약 2배로, 2017년 4배 이상보다 낮아 현재는 2017년보다 덜 과열된 상태라고 진단. 미국 실현 시가총액 대비 MVRV 지표도 2017년 4.5~4.6배 대비 현재 2.4 수준이라 경고 신호는 있으나 적색등은 아님. 리테일 관심도: 구글 트렌드 검색량은 2017년 12월 최고치의 약 16% 수준으로, 아직 개인투자자 열풍 단계는 아니라고 평가. 네트워크 지표: 거래 수수료, 일일 거래 건수는 2017년 고점에 못 미치며 회복 중. 채굴 난이도와 해시레이트는 계속 사상 최고 수준으로 상승해 네트워크 보안이 강화되는 중. 가치 논쟁: King Darius의 '교환 매체·가치 저장 수단으로 부적합' 주장에 반박하며, 비트코인은 검열 불가능성·국경 간 이전성·공급 제한(2,100만 개) 때문에 금처럼 안전자산 성격으로 수요가 있다고 주장. 출연자 전망: 가격이 추가로 과열 상승한 뒤 조정이 올 수 있으니 신규 진입자는 신중해야 한다는 입장. 단기 방향을 명확히 제시하지는 않음. 리스크: 과열 재진입 시 조정 가능성, 정부 규제 가능성(King Darius 주장 언급), 거래 수수료·거래량 회복 여부가 관건.
다듬은 글
Okay, so this video is about Bitcoin breaking price records in Reais (Brazilian currency) and is almost hitting the dollar high, which was almost $20,000. That's what he's going to talk about in this video. Okay, but I'm just arriving here on the channel. My name is Fernando Ouvisse, and I talk about economics, markets, and investments.
If you're enjoying the content, consider subscribing below, activating the bell, and also sharing this video. And even inviting you, because tonight's exclusive live stream for our subscribers will be about Bitcoin in practice: how to use it, how the system works, how the network works, how to check for updates, how wallets work, how to back up your wallet, etc.
It will be very practical. I won't talk about price or the market; tonight's video will be about how to use Bitcoin. So, if you want to know more, just click on the first link in the video description and you can try our subscription service for free for 7 days. So, tonight's live stream is about Bitcoin in practice.
Okay, so this is a topic I talk about a lot on the channel. I talked about it at the beginning of the channel, and I know many people ask me to talk more about it, but anyway, I end up dedicating a lot of space to it. Regarding what's happening in the macroeconomic scenario with central banks and fiscal policy, how does this reflect on the value of state currencies?
Because one of the investment theses in Bitcoin is understanding what's happening with the currencies of these countries. What policies are central banks implementing and how can they even cause the price of assets like Bitcoin to rise even further? But very well, let me put it on the screen here so we can see how this is behaving.
I put the price of Bitcoin in dollars in 2020, and it's here. Let me put it here, it's almost at 18,000 dollars now, and it hit 18,200 today in Reais. Let's go back here. In Reais, we have the price reaching 90,000. It hasn't reached 100,000 yet, it 's almost there, but anyway, it's here. Until I go back to full screen, try to get it to the dollar price because I want to compare it with the 200-day simple moving average and also the 5-period 200-period average.
50 periods, as if the price is now much higher than the 200-day moving average here. That's it, if we compare and divide one by the other, it's almost two. We can give a conclusion as to whether the market is already stretched or not, and it needs to stop, obviously, from the historical high that was back in 2017.
Let me put five years here, see how much it stretched when it got there, and if we consider this multiple of market price divided by the 200-day moving average, at this moment here it was more than four times. So what it really was... It's important to understand that back in 2017 this stretch was much more significant than it is now.
This doesn't mean that we can't have a rally that again leads Bitcoin to a bubble scenario, or at least a very excessive price that ends up bringing a correction later on in relation to the average. But I'll go back to the price chart. So this is the price in dollars. This is the price in reais, which here in reais, going back five years, has already hit the historical high in reality, being almost 70,000 reais, and now I'm almost...
100,000 reais and what's interesting here now with the blog post showing how Bitcoin is indeed back, and the question written is "finally going" and the message track says that cryptocurrencies are finally going, at least 30, and for me, yes, they already are. And here are some news items they bring, such as Fidelity here, look, I have to put it here, I'll talk about this King Dahlia studio, that's my final answer.
In this video, look, I have information about the impious voice about, and here's PayPal, which also started accepting this year, also about the Fidelity Investment Fund, which is a giant with trillions of dollars under management. Fidelity launched this fund for highly qualified investors, the defendant investors.
So yes, it 's two mainstream ones, but unlike 2017, at least up to this point, it hasn't been a retail-led rally, and that's what I want to put on the screen to show Bitcoin. Google Trends, the search for the term Bitcoin, which is now at 16 percent, which was the maximum back in December 2017. So look, it's not yet at that level.
The frenzy of all the retail buying, or the search for the term " Bitcoin," is still at nine percent of what it was in December 2017. We have n't yet returned to those levels of what's called contamination or dissemination of Bitcoin in retail; it's not there yet, it could get there, and that's a warning sign that we need to monitor.
But there are other warning signs that I want to put here so we can also have a comparison. I made a video about this recently, and I'm returning here to revisit some important statistics that I consider fundamental to the technology and that may also indicate some excessive pricing, excessive exuberance from investors, and that could end up causing a market correction, especially for those who are thinking of entering the Bitcoin market today.
So let's put it here, very well, here we have the price in dollars, but we have to put the market capitalization. We've already hit the maximum. Because market capitalization considers the total stock of currency. Sometimes the market price that hit the maximum, which was back in 2017, because then more bitcoins were created.
The total market capitalization of mined coins reached almost $330 million. This was a point in terms of realized market capitalization. It's interesting to see how this metric is also rising, and it considers the entire stock of coins multiplied by the price on the date of the last movement in the block time.
In other words, it seeks to insert the realized price value according to the date of the transfer, and this value that we see there, which is a little above $128 billion, is usually below this realized market capitalization. This metric is important, let me put it here now, which is the MVR, which is the market capitalization divided by the realized market capitalization.
This is also an indicator that can signal some excess to resolve anxiety among investors. Back in 2017, it reached more than four times 4.5, 4.6, and now it's testing at 2.40, which are warning signs, but not yet a red light in terms of volatility over the last 30 days. I like to see the volatility since 2017.
So far, this window here shows how much lower the volatility is today. I see that back in 2020, they said March was an atypical month, but it was atypical for all asset classes, not just Bitcoin. And now, in recent months, the volatility has been more contained, and I've even talked about this. There were days when Bitcoin had less volatility than our Brazilian real, the Brazilian exchange rate.
But anyway, let me go back here, and there's another side to it. I also like to show that the value—let me put less time here—the time window of the average transaction value on the network, which hit a record in 2017, was the peak of the bubble. Since then, it has been recovering; it's not at its maximum yet, but it's an important sign to see if there's any kind of exuberance.
Another piece of data I see related to transactions is the average transaction fee, the transaction fees on the network—how many users are having to pay residents to transfer their bitcoins to other wallets. So this fee also reached its maximum in December 2017, in some cases reaching 32 on some days.
The time it took to reach over $30 to make a transaction on the Monalisa network. The network was completely congested, which is n't happening now. There was, however, a considerable increase in transaction fees at the beginning of November, but it cooled down and now it's around two or three hours.
But it's also an important indicator to monitor. Another thing to put here is the daily transaction count, which in 2017 reached almost 500,000 daily transactions. In 2018, with the bursting of the bubble, it fell considerably and has been recovering since then, but it's still not at the same levels as 2017.
And on top of that, three more to finish here, the mining difficulty continues to rise, and that's why it's the best. It rises because the rest of the data, which is the computational power invested in the network, continues to rise considerably. You want to put it here in full screen too, breaking all records, reaching 160 times per second in the last few months.
Each hexed means one quintillion times per second. How much does the network have? Try to solve the so-called proof of This work won't go into detail about this now; I'll play the video here for anyone who wants to better understand what this means, but anyway, it's a measure of computational power invested in the network, and it's growing quite significantly.
And finally, the last metric I'd like to show here is the value transacted on the network, adjusted for the last 90 days. So this is the network value, market value divided by the number of transactions that occurred on the network. It's a kind of price-to- earnings ratio or AWP stock chart, and it's similar.
It's not toxic or close to what we... Hello, a good analogy to simplify: they consider market value divided by network transactions, and this is an indicator that is already starting to signal a relevant increase. It's also something to keep monitoring. And finally, I want to put King Darius's Twitter here because yesterday, November 17th, he went to his Twitter to say that maybe he's missing something with regard to Bitcoin, and I 'll put it here on Twitter.
He said, " What are my main concerns regarding Bitcoin?" So he says the following: "The same problems... I invite you to run..." With Bitcoin being an effective currency, it's simple, of course, an effective currency until the first point is that Bitcoin isn't a good medium of exchange because, you know, I think it lacked a certain quality, and it's hot by much.
In other words, you can't buy much, it 's not a good medium of exchange because most merchants still accept Bitcoin. And the second point is that it 's also not a good store of value because the volatility is very high and it has little correlation with other prices of things I need to buy, so it doesn't reflect much protection of my purchasing power.
And lastly, here it is, he says that if they become successful enough to compete with and threaten government currencies, governments will end up banning or prohibiting them, making it very dangerous to use Bitcoin. Let's start with what he says about the network not being a good currency. This is what I've been saying since 2013 when I started publishing articles and researching the technology, and I said it was a kind of economist's approach.
Look, Bitcoin is... They say Bitcoin is electronic money. So let's evaluate this. Is Bitcoin really a... Money, to him, is a medium of exchange, the unit of account, it's a store of value— the three classic functions of a currency. A good medium of exchange is something we use to make exchanges. So it's not a medium of exchange, a unit of account, nobody uses it to change accounts to price anything, so it's a medium of account and a store of value.
It's also not a good store of value because it's very volatile; its price can fall drastically, it can rise drastically. So, the volatility is such that it's not a good store of value. This used to be, and still is, the approach of economists. So, it's no longer a medium of exchange, a unit of account, or a store of value.
So, vertically, it's nothing, it can't be considered currency. And there's a bit of that in this tweet from King Darius because it makes you not understand the forces, the fundamentals, and how Bitcoin, despite not being a currency today, can become a currency. And even if it doesn't become a widely used currency, it still has utility, it still has value, and those are its main points of value: how it's an uncensorable network, it can't be condemned by anyone, it can't be used, no government can obstruct the Bitcoin network itself, and because of that, it's the real asset.
Undeniable, where you can transfer it across borders to anyone, and that has a lot of value. Furthermore, it's not divisible, unlike state currencies. That's why I like talking about state currencies so much here, because we see the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England printing money until they can't anymore.
This year, more than 5 trillion dollars were created by central banks together. It's impressive how Bitcoin is possible. Even if the price of Bitcoin increases, even if it surpasses the price of gold, all the price increases translate to increased computing power, meaning more network security. It's not a greater supply, it's more security because the supply of Bitcoin today is 21 million units, and there are 18 million of something, and there's no way to circumvent this supply rule.
Unlike gold, where a rising price signals to gold miners to suddenly reactivate mines that were previously unprofitable, now they become profitable, or even explore new mines and thus increase the gold supply. With this, every price increase translates to network security and not an increase in supply, and of course, this depends on demand.
The increasing trend tends to translate into increasing prices, which is why we're seeing this. So, this approach of the Colonel's album, effective guard, isn't as relevant today. That's not what's making Bitcoin the demanded asset today. It's much more of a safe-haven asset with upside potential, and that's the main point.
That's why I always compare it so much to gold. Gold isn't a currency today either, but central banks use gold because people demand gold as an investment, as an asset, and because they know it can't be inflated, they know it's a scarce asset with universal acceptance. It's the million-dollar asset, and that's why even central banks, almost 50 years after the end of the Bitcoin agreement, still have practically the same level of redemption as they did in '71.
Why did they trust gold? And why do they trust each other? Central banks of their peers... I disagree again. In fact, I think he's mistaken. I'm not the only one who says this; many people today also disagree, but I think these are the main points that make Bitcoin still demanded. And in the series they're making about the big financial seven, I talk more about this.
For those who have n't watched the series yet, two episodes have already aired, and the last one will air on Friday. Hello, let's go! I'll also put the link here in the video description for those who haven't seen the series and want to watch it. And for those who haven't yet entered this market, obviously, it's always a matter of being careful because Bitcoin's price has already increased quite a bit.
Soon there could be a more exuberant and rational rise, which will trigger a correction, so be cautious. I wo n't do anything foolish with my assets. I'll leave it at that. Any questions, criticisms, or suggestions, leave them in the comments. Until the next video, bye! Hey Hey Hey
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